Iron Ore Holds Steady as Market Waits for Clarity on Policy and Trade

Sourced from official exchange data and charts, the price of SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China, settled near $99.30 per ton on July 30, 2025.

The market displayed hardly any price change over the last 24 hours, as participants took a cautious approach amid a lack of fresh drivers. Trading volumes remained steady on the SGX, with open interest slightly down as some traders rolled contracts forward and reduced exposure.

Fundamentals stayed mixed. Chinese port inventories kept falling, which limited immediate downside pressure. Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports dropped by 7.6% week-on-week, supporting prices above recent support zones.

However, physical spot demand fell compared to last week. Steel production figures from China remained robust but continued to edge lower year-over-year, demonstrating soft underlying demand as the country’s construction sector struggles.

Vale, the Brazilian mining giant, reported increased iron ore output for the second quarter, though logistical bottlenecks slowed actual shipments. Macroeconomic signals offered little clarity. No significant progress occurred during US–China trade talks in Stockholm on July 29.

Market participants focused on whether the current tariff pause will extend past mid-August, as any policy surprise could sharply move prices.

China’s much-discussed new hydropower project in Tibet sent ripples through the commodity space, but its immediate impact on iron ore consumption remains limited.

Technical analysis of the daily chart showed pronounced consolidation. The price hovered between $98.55 and $102.81 in the past week, finding resistance around the $100 to $101 area.

Moving averages (including the 50, 100, and 200-day) converged above current levels, reinforcing the barrier against further gains. The 20-day Bollinger Band upper line approached $100, with price sticking close to the midline.

Momentum faded, as shown by the Relative Strength Index sliding from 64 to 61, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD closed to the signal line, and the histogram flattened, underlining market indecision.

The four-hour chart revealed a narrow trading range, limited swings, and low volatility. RSI and MACD both aligned with the daily pattern: flat, neutral, and waiting for a fresh catalyst.

Volume confirmed hesitancy, as traders shied away from taking bold positions ahead of policy clarity. Of special note, the Global Liquidity Index (yellow line on the chart) trended sideways.

This indicated neither strong inflows nor outflows of funds into risk assets, emphasizing the absence of conviction among major market players. Overall, iron ore trades quietly just below the $100 mark.

Prices lack momentum in either direction as the market weighs supply tightness against sluggish downstream demand. Policy and macro headlines remain the only likely triggers for significant movement, leaving the market in watchful waiting for now.

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