Chilean Peso Breaks 920 Barrier as Rally Against USD Intensifies
The Chilean Peso is continuing its strong performance against the US Dollar this morning, with the USD/CLP exchange rate now at 918.27, representing continued appreciation from yesterday’s closing level of 921.66.
This marks a significant 1.3% strengthening of the peso over the past week and positions the Chilean currency at its strongest level against the greenback since early February.
The peso’s appreciation accelerated during yesterday’s trading (March 18), building on momentum that began late last week. After opening at around 930.25 on Monday (March 17), the currency steadily strengthened throughout the session, gaining approximately 0.93% from the previous week’s close.
The peso broke through the key psychological barrier of 925 CLP per USD before settling at 921.66 as European markets opened yesterday. Overnight trading in Asian markets further bolstered the peso, pushing it below the 920 mark to its current position at 918.27.
Market Drivers
Copper Rally Fuels Gains: The primary catalyst behind the peso’s strengthening continues to be the rally in copper prices, which have climbed to $4.15 per pound, up from approximately $4.00 last week. As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile’s currency maintains a strong correlation with the industrial metal.
US Dollar Weakness: The greenback has experienced broad-based weakness in March, retreating to November 2024 levels. Market analyst Maria Gonzalez from Santiago Capital noted: “The continued weakness in the USD globally has created a favorable environment for the Chilean peso, with markets now firmly expecting three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.”
Central Bank Policy: The Chilean Central Bank’s steady monetary policy stance has contributed to the peso’s stability. The bank has maintained its policy interest rate at 5% since January 2025, providing a relatively attractive yield compared to other emerging markets.
Trading Volumes and Flows
Trading volumes remain elevated this morning, with approximately $320 million exchanged in the first hour of trading. This follows the above-average activity seen yesterday, when approximately $450 million traded in the spot market during the first two hours.
Institutional interest in Chilean assets continues to grow, with ETF flows showing increased activity. The largest Chile-focused ETF has reported inflows of $28 million over the past week, indicating growing investor confidence in the Chilean economy.
Live Market IntelligenceChile — Live Market Board
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Chile — Live Market Board
+0.31%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,383.68
+0.21%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPSA | 10,950.74 | +0.31% | — | 10,916.70 | 11,023 | 10,913 | 1,513,213,483 |
| USD/CLP | 948.45 | +0.00% | +0.04% | 948.45 | 948.45 | 948.45 | — |
| COPPER | 6.36 | +0.83% | +13.63% | 6.30 | 6.38 | 6.31 | 28,473 |
| SQM-B | 65,350 | -0.23% | +66.71% | 65,499 | 66,830 | 65,000 | 132,287 |
| COPEC | 6,330 | +1.12% | +2.78% | 6,260 | 6,385 | 6,300 | 379,240 |
| BSANTANDER | 79.32 | -0.85% | +40.02% | 80.00 | 80.58 | 78.70 | 44,067,325 |
| FALABELLA | 5,990 | -1.12% | +26.08% | 6,058 | 6,150 | 5,990 | 1,894,874 |
| ENELAM | 85.49 | +0.58% | -6.78% | 85.00 | 85.49 | 84.67 | 34,589,717 |
| CENCOSUD | 1,958 | -0.51% | -32.25% | 1,968 | 1,976 | 1,951 | 643,427 |
| CMPC | 1,025 | -2.47% | -24.08% | 1,051 | 1,060 | 1,025 | 2,930,709 |
| BANCO CHILE | 193.10 | +1.25% | +43.73% | 190.72 | 194.99 | 190.72 | 35,310,725 |
| LATAM AIR | 23.88 | +1.62% | +19.82% | 23.50 | 24.37 | 23.60 | 540,284,837 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 179.29 | -1.61% | +89.26% | 182.22 | 183.14 | 179.03 | 927,406 |
Technical Analysis
The breakthrough below 920 CLP per USD represents a significant technical development. The USD/CLP pair has now decisively broken below the key support level of 923.73 observed earlier this month.
The current price of 918.27 continues the downward trend that has broken through the lower boundary of the trading range (923-945) that had defined the market since early March.
Technical analysts now point to the next major support level at 915, with resistance now at the previously broken 923 level. The peso’s momentum indicators suggest the currency could test the 915 level in the coming days if current conditions persist.
Market Commentary
“We’re seeing significant repositioning in favor of the peso this morning as the copper story continues to drive sentiment,” comments Jorge Selaive, Chief Economist at Santander Chile. “The currency has shown remarkable resilience despite broader emerging market volatility, confirming Chile’s economic fundamentals remain sound.”
Trading Economics had previously predicted the USD/CLP exchange rate to reach 934.22 by the end of this quarter, but the recent strengthening suggests this forecast requires revision. Market participants are now adjusting their expectations, with consensus shifting toward continued peso strength in the near term.
Outlook
The Chilean peso’s performance over the coming days will likely remain tied to copper price movements and global risk sentiment. If copper prices maintain their momentum above $4.10 per pound and global risk appetite remains strong, the peso could potentially test the 915 level soon.
However, traders remain cautious regarding potential volatility tied to upcoming US economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications scheduled for later this week. The Chilean economy’s growth projection of 2-2.5% for 2025 by the IMF continues to provide underlying support for the currency’s improved performance.
In depth
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