Chile Raises Copper Price Outlook to US$5.95

CHILE · COPPER

Chile’s state copper commission raised its price forecast for 2027 to US$5.95 a pound on Friday 30 October 2026, up from US$5.10 in its previous report. The commission, known as Cochilco, also lifted its 2026 average to US$6.18 a pound.

For US readers, the forecast says copper stays expensive for at least another year, because mines around the world are adding supply more slowly than demand grows. That matters for anyone who buys US-listed copper miners such as Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper, or who pays for wiring, grids and electric vehicles.

What Cochilco Forecasts

Cochilco, the Chilean Copper Commission, is the government agency that tracks the copper market and advises the state. Its third-quarter report puts the average price at US$6.18 a pound in 2026 and US$5.95 in 2027, a fall of 3.7% between the two years.

At US$5.95 a pound, copper would cost about US$13,100 a tonne. The commission raised the 2027 figure by 85 US cents, citing limited mine supply against growing demand.

Claudia Rodríguez, the commission’s executive vice president, said the main support for the price is the limited response of mine output to demand that keeps growing. She added that the price should ease in 2027 only if supply recovers.

A Small Surplus, Not a Glut

Cochilco expects world supply of refined copper, the purified metal that factories buy, of 27.64 million tonnes in 2026 against demand of 27.50 million, a surplus of 144,000 tonnes. In 2027 it sees supply of 28.20 million tonnes and demand of 27.98 million, a surplus of 215,000 tonnes, or 0.8% of world use.

World mine output is forecast to dip 0.6% to 23.30 million tonnes in 2026 and to rise 3.4% to 24.08 million tonnes in 2027. The commission says such small surpluses could vanish if mines run late or if consumption beats forecasts.

China, which uses 57.3% of the world’s refined copper, is expected to slow its demand growth from 1.6% in 2026 to 1.0% in 2027. Other markets are set to grow 2.8% and provide about two-thirds of the 2027 rise in global use.

Chile Is Part of the Problem

Cochilco expects Chile’s mine output to fall 8.4% in 2026 to 4.94 million tonnes, then to grow 3% to 5.08 million tonnes in 2027. That would win back only about one third of this year’s loss.

From January to September 2026 Chile mined 3.63 million tonnes, 8.5% less than a year earlier. The Escondida, Codelco and Spence mines account for 77.3% of the net national decline, and lower ore grades and maintenance stops are the reasons the commission cites.

To reach its yearly figure, Chile must mine about 434,000 tonnes a month in the last quarter, which is 7.6% above the nine-month average. Our report on Chile’s September copper output shows how far the country is from that pace.

What It Means for You

If you hold US copper stocks or a copper fund, the forecast supports earnings for 2027, but it is a forecast, not a price on the screen. Copper that stays near US$6 a pound also keeps costs high for US builders, utilities and carmakers.

Travelers and exporters see no direct effect. Chilean mines supply the world, and a drop in their output is felt in metal prices rather than at the border.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether Chile’s mines can lift output to the 434,000 tonnes a month the forecast needs in the last quarter. The commission says its surplus figures could change with operational delays or stronger demand.

The report does not say how much of the price rise comes from investors rather than from physical shortages. It also does not settle how fast new mines in Chile and Congo, which together supply about 37% of the 2027 rise in world mine output, will start up.

More: Chile news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is Cochilco’s New Copper Price Forecast?

Cochilco, Chile’s state copper commission, expects an average of US$6.18 a pound in 2026 and US$5.95 in 2027. The 2027 figure is up from US$5.10 in its previous report.

Why Is Copper Expected to Stay Expensive?

The commission says mine output responds slowly while demand keeps growing. Surpluses are small, at 144,000 tonnes in 2026 and 215,000 tonnes in 2027.

Is Chile Producing More Copper?

No, not this year. Cochilco expects Chilean mine output to fall 8.4% in 2026 to 4.94 million tonnes and to rebound 3% in 2027.

Sources: Cochilco (Chilean Copper Commission), Copper Market Trends Report, Projections 2026 and 2027, third quarter, 30 October 2026; Cochilco, statements by Executive Vice President Claudia Rodríguez, 30 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief