Copper Falls 1.23% as Chile Mine Strike Ends

CHILE · COPPER · MARKETS

Copper, the metal in wiring, cars and power grids, ended the week 1.23% lower at US$6.54 a pound as a strike at Chile’s Centinela mine ended and investors turned cautious.

Copper closed Friday 23 October at US$6.54 a pound (US$14,415 a tonne) on the London Metal Exchange, down 1.23% on the week, according to Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco. The commission lists the end of the Centinela strike, a ten-day walkout at a copper mine in northern Chile, among the reasons, because it lowered immediate labour risks in Chile.

For US readers, Chile matters because it supplied 68% of US refined-copper imports from 2021 to 2024, the US Geological Survey reports. A week of lower prices and a settled labour dispute in Chile therefore feeds into the cost of wiring, pipes and electric-vehicle parts, and into US-listed copper stocks.

Why the Copper Price Fell This Week

Cochilco’s weekly report puts stocks first. Copper in London warehouses jumped 17.9% in the week to 273,750 tonnes, and visible stocks across London, New York and Shanghai rose 2.8% to 1,051,897 tonnes.

Investors also pulled back from risk, the commission says, after a fall in technology shares and doubts about artificial-intelligence spending. Higher oil kept alive the chance of more US interest-rate rises, and weak US housing limited the demand outlook.

The price closed at US$6.45 a pound on Thursday 22 October before rising 1.41% on Friday. So far in 2026 copper has averaged US$6.13 a pound, 40.26% above the same period of 2025.

Labour risk had already eased at Escondida, which BHP calls the world’s largest copper producer, where Cochilco says the ratification of BHP’s deal with supervisors averted a strike. Its 23 October report counts the end of the Centinela strike on top of that earlier settlement.

Two forces held the metal up, Cochilco adds. Chinese buyers returned as prices fell, and BHP’s copper production dropped 19% from a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September.

How the Centinela Strike Ended

Centinela produced 240,400 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 7%, and earned US$2.2 billion before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation on US$3.5 billion of revenue, Antofagasta plc’s annual report shows. The company says it kept production at normal levels throughout the strike.

The strike began on Wednesday 7 October, when 709 members of two unions, Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela, stopped work after state-run mediation failed. Together they make up 22% of the mine operator’s own workforce, the company says.

The unions said their members earned less than colleagues doing similar work in another union, and the company denied this was discrimination. Voluntary mediation by the regional labour directorate restarted talks on Tuesday 13 October.

On Sunday 18 October the unions announced that members had approved the new contract, with 94.49% of votes in favour and 97.32% turnout, as Emol reported. The company confirmed the agreement the same day, saying the unions’ members had backed it, and thanked the teams that kept the operation running during the strike.

What the Centinela Deal Contains

The new contract runs for 36 months and includes a bonus of 24 million pesos (about US$24,100) for ending the negotiation and renewing shift arrangements, plus better pay and benefits, the company says. The Rio Times found no published figure for the size of the pay rises or the cost to the company.

Before the strike, the unions had rejected a final offer with a bonus of 22.5 million pesos (about US$22,600), a soft loan of 3.5 million pesos (about US$3,500) and a 2% real rise in base pay, the company said on 14 October. Peso figures here convert at the 23 October close in house market data, 994.76 pesos to the US dollar (US$1).

The unions said they had won “most of our demands on equality and fairness”, ending “years of differences and injustices” between workers of one company. General manager Nicolás Rivera called the deal “a positive result” and said signing separate agreements with each union “does not constitute discrimination”.

Why It Matters in the United States

Chile mined an estimated 5.3 million tonnes of copper in 2025, nearly a quarter of the world’s roughly 23 million tonnes, the US Geological Survey estimates. The United States imported about 1.7 million tonnes of refined copper in 2025, against 903,000 tonnes in 2024.

COMEX stocks in New York reached 723,791 tonnes this week, 534.2% above a year earlier. The commission adds that New York’s three-month price is only US$0.01 a pound above London’s, limiting the incentive to ship more metal to the United States.

Refined copper was left out of the 50% US tariff on semi-finished copper products that began on 1 August 2025, and an April 2026 proclamation applied the copper duties to full customs value. The 2025 proclamation asked Commerce to report by 30 June 2026 so the president could decide on a refined-copper duty of 15% from 1 January 2027 and 30% from 1 January 2028, and the Rio Times found no such decision in the Federal Register or on the White House website.

US-listed copper stocks fell much harder than the metal in the week to 23 October, in house market data. The Rio Times could not tie the drop to the Centinela settlement, and Cochilco’s explanation centres on stocks, risk appetite and interest rates.

What Prediction Markets Say

Traders on Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, put the chance that copper closes above US$6.51 a pound on Friday 30 October at about 58%, and above US$6.57 at about 45% (25 October, 5:09 a.m. ET). About 17,350 contracts of US$1 each have traded in the monthly copper market so far.

The contract settles on a copper price feed from the oracle Pyth, not on the London price Cochilco reports, so the two can differ slightly. These are bets by traders, not forecasts by Cochilco or by The Rio Times.

Kalshi also lists weekly and daily copper markets, but they had only about 410 and 1,550 contracts traded when checked, too few to quote. The monthly market is the deepest open copper contract.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

If you buy or install copper-heavy goods in the United States, the week brought no new price shock: copper is still about 40% above its 2025 average, and the Centinela settlement removes one local supply risk rather than changing the long-run picture. The metal’s direction now depends more on stocks, the dollar and interest rates than on Chilean labour disputes.

If you hold or follow a US copper miner, the week showed how exposed the shares are: they fell between 6% and 9% while the metal slipped about 1%. Cochilco names risk appetite and rising London stocks, as well as the end of the strike, as pressures on the price.

If you follow US copper stocks and funds, Cochilco says the next moves hinge on the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday 28 October and on whether the Highland Valley strike risk in Canada, flagged from 24 October, materialises. This is not investment advice.

What Is Not Known

Several details behind the price move remain open. Cochilco’s report is the main source for the market explanations, and the contract details come from the company’s and the unions’ own statements.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did copper fall this week?

Copper closed Friday 23 October at US$6.54 a pound, down 1.23% from the previous Friday. That is US$14,415 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, Cochilco’s data show.

Did the Centinela strike cut copper output?

The company says it kept production at normal levels during the ten-day strike. Cochilco’s 16 October report likewise noted no reported production loss from the stoppage.

Who runs the Centinela mine?

Minera Centinela is controlled by Antofagasta Minerals, part of the Luksic business group, Chilean broadcaster Meganoticias notes. It produced 240,400 tonnes of copper in 2025, Antofagasta plc’s annual report shows.

What could move copper next?

Cochilco points to the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday 28 October and US growth and inflation data the next day. It also flags a possible strike at Canada’s Highland Valley mine.

Why does Chile matter to US copper buyers?

Chile supplied 68% of US refined-copper imports from 2021 to 2024, the US Geological Survey says. It mined an estimated 5.3 million tonnes in 2025, nearly a quarter of world output.

Sources: Cochilco, weekly copper market report, 19 to 23 October 2026, Cochilco, La Rueda daily prices, 23 October 2026, Cochilco, La Rueda, 16 October 2026, Cochilco, weekly report, 12 to 16 October 2026, Antofagasta Minerals, Centinela agreement, 18 October 2026, Antofagasta Minerals, Centinela statement, 14 October 2026, Antofagasta Minerals, Centinela statement, 15 October 2026, Antofagasta plc, Annual Report 2025, Antofagasta plc, Q3 2026 production report, US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Copper, Federal Register, Proclamation 10962, Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States, Federal Register, Proclamation 11021, Strengthening Actions Taken To Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States, 9 April 2026, Federal Reserve, 2026 FOMC calendar, BHP, operational review to 30 September 2026 (SEC Form 6-K), Emol, unions approve Centinela contract, 18 October 2026, Meganoticias, Centinela strike ends, 19 October 2026, CNN Chile, copper weekly summary, 23 October 2026, Kalshi, public market data for the monthly copper contract (series KXCOPPERMON), pulled 25 October, 5:09 a.m. ET. Peso conversions and US share prices: house market data, closes of 16 and 23 October 2026. All retrieved 25 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief