Argentina’s YPF Stock Beats 23.6% Inflation

ARGENTINA · MARKETS · COMPANY NEWS

Only a few investments beat Argentina’s 23.6% inflation so far this year, and the newspaper Perfil puts YPF stock, inflation-linked deposits and inflation-linked bonds on that short list.

Argentina’s state-controlled oil company YPF has gained 40.2% in dollars on the New York Stock Exchange this year, while Argentine consumer prices rose 23.6% from December to September. On Sunday 25 October the Buenos Aires newspaper Perfil ranked YPF’s shares, UVA fixed-term deposits and CER bonds as the winning investments of the year so far.

For US readers it is a test of what protects savings when prices rise 33.4% a year, and a first look at YPF before its third-quarter results this week. Since a 1-for-10 split in Buenos Aires on 4 August, each New York ADR, or American depositary receipt, stands for ten local shares.

What Perfil’s Ranking Shows

Perfil’s report, by Gonzalo Martínez, says that with prices up 23.6% from January to September very few investments finished ahead. It gives the UVA fixed-term deposit a return of about 26% and says CER bonds also ended above average inflation, without a figure.

An ordinary peso fixed-term deposit returned about 18.6%, and the report says both it and Lecap Treasury bills finished below inflation, while the financial dollar rate rose only about 4% and Bitcoin was down about 3%. Lecaps are fixed-rate peso bills sold by the Treasury.

On the stock market, the firm Insider Finance puts the Merval, Buenos Aires’ main index, down about 10% in pesos, and Perfil lists Sociedad Comercial del Plata down 38.8% and Transportadora de Gas del Norte down 33.9%. YPF, up 53.1% on the Buenos Aires market to Friday’s close, was the only stock that beat inflation, while Telecom, Ternium and Metrogas also rose by less.

How UVA Deposits and CER Bonds Work

A UVA fixed-term deposit is a peso deposit whose principal is counted in UVA units, and the central bank’s rules tie the value of each UVA to the CER index, so what the bank repays rises with inflation. The same rules set a minimum term of 90 days and leave the extra interest rate to be agreed between bank and saver.

The central bank publishes the CER daily, and it has followed official inflation with a delay of about one month: it rose 1.7% from 15 September to 15 October, the same as August’s inflation of 1.7%. Because of that delay the UVA gained 25.2% from 31 December to 30 September, a little more than the 23.6% rise in prices, in line with Perfil’s figure of about 26% for UVA deposits.

A CER bond applies the same logic to government debt: the Treasury adjusts the principal by the CER and pays a yield on top, much as US Treasury inflation-protected securities adjust for US prices. At its auction on Wednesday 14 October the Treasury sold a dual bond linked to the CER and to TAMAR, a private-bank interest rate, due 14 December 2029, and Infobae reports that it paid 6.99% a year above the CER adjustment.

YPF Stock After the Split

YPF’s New York ADRs closed at US$50.68 on Friday 23 October, up 3.07% on the day and 40.2% from their 31 December close of US$36.16. In pesos in Buenos Aires the gain is about 53%, which Perfil puts at 53.1%, and the two figures differ because one is counted in pesos and the other in dollars.

The 4 August split cut the Buenos Aires share price to a tenth and moved the ADR ratio from one share to ten, so the New York price did not change. YPF says the split does not alter the economic value of any holding.

The Argentine government holds 51% of YPF, with the rest split 28% on the New York exchange and 21% on Buenos Aires’ ByMA, according to its second-quarter filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, dated Monday 10 August. That filing shows net income of US$1.205 billion on revenue of US$6.574 billion in the quarter, with shale oil output of 212.7 thousand barrels a day.

YPF’s investor page schedules the third-quarter webcast for Thursday 29 October at 9:00 a.m. Eastern, and earnings calendars list the results after the close on Wednesday 28 October. YPF has not published the release time, but its second-quarter results were dated Monday 10 August and its webcast followed on Tuesday 11 August.

How We Checked the Numbers

The Rio Times checked the main figures in Perfil’s report against official sources. A rough calculation from the central bank’s 30-day deposit rate series gives about 19% for an ordinary deposit from 31 December to 30 September, close to Perfil’s 18.6%.

Perfil’s other returns, for Lecaps, the financial dollar rate and Bitcoin, are its own calculations. The Rio Times attributes them to Perfil.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, traders put about 67% on Argentina’s inflation for 2026 ending between 30% and 34.9%, and about 25.5% on a result between 25% and 29.9%, in a market with about US$83,700 traded across all of its brackets (25 October, 5:09 a.m. ET). Inflation stood at 33.4% over the twelve months to September.

A second Polymarket contract, on October’s monthly inflation, gives about 46% to a figure between 1.6% and 1.8% and about 35% to one between 1.9% and 2.1%, with about US$25,200 traded. INDEC’s calendar sets the release for Thursday 12 November, and the contract gives about 7% to anything above 2.1%, which would be faster than September’s 1.9%.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For a US holder of YPF’s ADRs, Perfil’s ranking is a record of past returns, not a forecast, and the next hard facts are YPF’s third-quarter results, with a webcast on Thursday 29 October, and Argentina’s October inflation figure on Thursday 12 November. A gain in pesos is not the same as a gain in dollars, because the central bank’s wholesale reference rate was 1,528.26 pesos to the US dollar on 23 October while prices rise 33.4% a year.

UVA deposits and CER bonds are peso instruments issued in Argentina, so the return a dollar-based investor sees also depends on the exchange rate and on how fast prices keep rising. This article describes past results and does not recommend any investment or predict what comes next.

What Is Not Known

Perfil does not publish its start dates, whether the returns include fees and taxes, or the yield of any single CER bond, so its 26%, 18.6% and 53.1% cannot be rebuilt exactly from the article. It also gives no number for CER bonds as a group, and the Treasury’s 14 October table covers only one such bond, so which CER bonds the report measured is not clear.

How YPF’s third-quarter results will compare with the second quarter is not known, nor is whether the shares will hold their gain. Past returns do not predict future ones.

The October inflation figure will show whether the rise to 1.9% in September from 1.7% in August continues. Whether the central bank’s deposit rates move with it is also open.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a UVA fixed-term deposit?

It is a peso fixed-term deposit counted in UVA units, whose value follows the CER inflation index, so the principal rises with prices. The central bank sets a minimum term of 90 days.

What is a CER bond?

It is an Argentine Treasury bond whose principal is adjusted by the CER, the central bank’s inflation index, with a yield paid on top. It works in a similar way to US inflation-protected Treasuries, known as TIPS.

Did YPF stock beat inflation this year?

On the numbers checked, yes: YPF’s New York ADRs rose 40.2% in dollars from 31 December to 23 October, against inflation of 23.6% through September. Perfil puts the Buenos Aires gain in pesos at 53.1%.

When does YPF report third-quarter results?

YPF’s investor page schedules the results webcast for Thursday 29 October at 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Earnings calendars list the release after the close on Wednesday 28 October.

Why does each YPF ADR now stand for ten shares?

YPF split its Buenos Aires shares 1-for-10 on 4 August and changed the ADR ratio from one share to ten. The company says the change does not alter the value of a holding.

Sources: INDEC, consumer price index series, September 2026, Banco Central de la República Argentina, statistics API (UVA, CER, 30-day deposit rate, wholesale reference rate), Banco Central, rules on term deposits and investments (text of 11 September 2026), Secretaría de Finanzas, call for the 14 October 2026 auction, Secretaría de Finanzas, result of the 14 October 2026 auction, YPF investor center (results webcast and stock split notice), YPF Form 6-K, second quarter 2026, 10 August 2026, Perfil, YPF, plazos fijo UVA y bonos CER, las inversiones ganadoras, 25 October 2026, Infobae, Treasury auction of 14 October 2026. Prediction-market prices: Polymarket, 25 October 2026. YPF share prices: The Rio Times market data, closes of 31 December 2025 and 23 October 2026. All pages retrieved 25 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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