Lula Aide Sees Trump Respecting Sunday Vote
BRAZIL · ELECTION
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest democracy, elects its president on Sunday 25 October 2026.
- —Why it matters Washington and Brasilia are fighting over tariffs, sanctions and visas, so the winner shapes US trade and investment.
- —Why now Celso Amorim, Lula’s foreign-policy adviser, gave an interview on 22 October, three days before the vote.
- —What happened Amorim said Trump will respect a Lula win in practice, even though Trump may prefer Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —The numbers Flávio led round one 47.03% to 45.16%, and US tariffs reach 37.5% on some Brazilian goods.
- —What it means for you US exporters and investors will deal with a Brazil that either welcomes or resists Trump.
- —Still open Whether Washington congratulates the winner, and what happens to the tariff talks at the WTO.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (24 October, 5:12 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 24 October, 5:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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Celso Amorim, the foreign-policy adviser to President Lula, says Donald Trump will respect the result of the Brazil election 2026 runoff if Lula wins on Sunday 25 October. He made the remarks in an interview with the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, which published it on Thursday 22 October.
Readers who follow Brazil election polls and Brazil election odds will see why the US view matters, because the Brazil runoff date is one day away. Washington and Brasilia are at odds over tariffs, sanctions on officials and a revoked ambassador’s visa, so the winner sets the tone for US trade and investment.
In Plain English
The runoff is the second round of Brazil’s presidential election, held because nobody won more than half the votes on 4 October. Itamaraty is Brazil’s foreign ministry, and a tariff is a tax a country charges on imported goods.
Section 301 is a US trade law that lets Washington punish what it calls unfair trade practices. The Shield of the Americas is a US-led security group that Flávio Bolsonaro says Brazil would join.
Amorim, a former foreign minister, told Folha that Trump “will respect it in practice”. In our translation he added that this does not mean Trump will run out to recognise a Lula win and say how good it is.
What Celso Amorim Told Folha
Amorim said he sees no risk that Trump would refuse to recognise a Lula re-election, Folha reported. O Globo and O Tempo carried the same remarks on Friday 23 October.
Celso Amorim said Trump may like one candidate more than the other but respects President Lula, and that Trump wished Lula good luck in a phone call. Folha and O Globo do not say when that call took place.
Celso Amorim called the Meta episode “very serious”, saying it left lasting damage whoever wins, as we covered in 13 US Lawmakers Press Meta on Brazil Vote. He did not say the White House was behind it, adding that he could make no accusation.
Where Trump and Washington Stand
Folha says Trump does not hide his preference for Flávio Bolsonaro but has not explicitly backed either runoff candidate since round one. On Monday 5 October he called Flávio’s first-round lead a very tight but great victory, Folhapress reported.
Flávio, a senator for the conservative Liberal Party, took 47.03% of the vote on 4 October against 45.16% for Lula, according to O Tempo citing Folhapress. Those figures are shares of valid votes.
In a letter dated Thursday 15 October, the US State Department told Democratic lawmakers that it supports the right of Brazilians to a free and fair electoral process, Metrópoles reported. Folha says the department did not explicitly promise to respect the result, which the lawmakers had asked for.
The same letter defended the July 2025 Magnitsky sanctions on Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes and the May 2026 terrorist label on two Brazilian gangs, Metrópoles reported. Moraes was taken off the Magnitsky list in December 2025, the outlet notes, and our report Lula Rejects US Terror Label on Brazil Gangs covers the gang label.
Tariffs and the Visa Dispute
Washington applied a 25% tariff on some Brazilian goods from 22 July under Section 301 of its trade law, with more than 2,100 items exempt, Folha reported. A second 12.5% charge, which the US applied to 41 economies in a forced-labour probe, brings the total to 37.5% where both apply, Agência Brasil reported.
Brazil’s trade ministry said on 24 July that the 37.5% rate hits US$6.6 billion of exports, or 16.5% of what Brazil sells to the US. Another 52.7%, worth US$21.3 billion, stays outside the new surcharges, including coffee, beef, aircraft and orange juice.
Brazil took the dispute to the World Trade Organization, and a first consultation meeting in Geneva on 25 September brought no progress, O Globo reported. The 25% and 37.5% rates were still in force on 20 October, ND Mais reported, and the sources do not say whether Brazil has asked for a WTO panel.
On 4 August the US revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador in Washington, Maria Luiza Viotti, saying Brazil had been slow to approve the US nominee Daniel Perez, g1 reported. The State Department said she was not expelled and can stay, and Aos Fatos found that posts linking the move to election fraud were false.
The Shield of the Americas Dispute
Soon after round one, Flávio said that, if elected, Brazil would join the Shield of the Americas, a US-led anti-drug initiative with ideological allies that critics see as a way for Washington to dominate the region, Folha reported. In another recent interview Amorim called it an encirclement of Brazil, citing US strikes on boats in the Caribbean.
Amorim also criticised the clean-out of the foreign ministry promised by Flávio’s brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the US, Folha reported. He said the Itamaraty faces no risk because he believes Flávio will not win, but that such ideas would be a terrible thing.
What It Means for You
For US readers, the interview shows Lula’s camp betting that Trump will deal with whoever wins, while Flávio’s camp offers closer ties through the Shield of the Americas. The tariffs, the WTO case and the visa dispute are not on the ballot, and none of the sources reviewed says they would change on their own after the vote.
Holders of US-listed Brazilian shares can follow our Brazil market report for the last trading day before the vote. Our guides Brazil Geopolitics Explained 2026 and Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s Runoff Rival? explain the stakes.
Visitors can read our Brazil runoff guide for foreign visitors for weekend rules. Our Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained guide shows who holds power after the vote.
What Is Not Known
Amorim speaks for Lula’s camp, and his view of Trump is a forecast, not a US commitment. No US official quoted in the sources reviewed has said how Washington will react on Sunday night.
The Folha interview is paywalled for most readers, so we read its open text and checked the quotes against O Globo, O Tempo and TV Sim Brasil. We did not open the State Department letter itself, and rely on Metrópoles, which saw it, and on Folha’s matching account.
The sources do not date the Trump call to Lula or say who placed it. They also do not say whether any tariff or visa decision is planned for after the runoff.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (24 October, 5:12 a.m. ET). The Brazil Presidential Election event has drawn about US$194.2 million in bets, with about US$26.2 million on the Flávio contract and US$29.5 million on the Lula contract.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they do not show how Washington would react to either result. Live prices are on our odds page.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.5% · Lula 20.5% (US$194 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 24 October, 5:20 am ET (10:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Celso Amorim say about Trump and the Brazil vote?
Amorim, Lula’s foreign-policy adviser, said Trump will respect a Lula win in practice, even if he prefers Flávio Bolsonaro. He told Folha that Trump may not rush to celebrate it.
Has Trump endorsed a candidate in the Brazil runoff?
Folha says Trump has not explicitly backed either candidate since round one, though he does not hide his preference for Flávio. On 5 October he called Flávio’s first-round lead a great victory.
Will the US accept the result of Brazil’s election?
The State Department wrote on 15 October that it supports a free and fair process, but Folha says it did not explicitly promise to respect the result. Amorim expects Trump to respect it.
What US tariffs apply to Brazil now?
A 25% tariff applies to some Brazilian goods from 22 July, and a 12.5% charge brings the total to 37.5% where both apply. Coffee, beef, aircraft and orange juice are among the products left out.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October 2026, when President Lula faces senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Our runoff date guide explains the schedule.
Sources: ND Mais, 20 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, 22 October 2026; O Globo, 23 October 2026; O Tempo, 23 October 2026; TV Sim Brasil, 22 October 2026; Metrópoles, 16 October 2026; O Tempo, 5 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 24 July 2026; O Globo, 25 September 2026; g1, 4 August 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief