Real Time Poll Holds Flávio 52%, Lula 48%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 8:50 a.m. ET · Source: Real Time Big Data poll, registration BR-09670/2026
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, the polling institute Real Time Big Data released a runoff survey that puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by four points in valid votes.
- The numbers Flávio has 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%, while raw totals read 49% to 45%, with 5% blank or null and 1% undecided.
- Margin of error 2 points either way at 95% confidence, so Brazilian outlets call it a technical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters were interviewed by telephone from Monday 19 to Thursday 22 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (23 October, 8:39 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 24% and 24%), as of 23 October, 9:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The survey cannot capture any shift in opinion during the last two days before the vote.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Real Time Big Data, a Brazilian polling institute, has Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula by 52% to 48% of valid votes in its latest Brazil election 2026 poll. It was released on Friday 23 October, two days before the runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, represents the conservative Liberal Party (PL). Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), and the latest Brazil election polls keep the race close.
What the Real Time Big Data Poll Found
The institute interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone, with human interviewers, from Monday 19 to Thursday 22 October, CNN Brasil reported. The margin of error is 2 points either way at 95% confidence, and the survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-09670/2026.
In raw totals, Flávio has 49% and Lula 45%, with 5% blank or null and 1% undecided, O Povo reported. Setting those answers aside gives the 52% to 48% split in valid votes, the figure Brazilian pollsters publish to match the official count.
How This Compares With Tuesday’s Poll
The valid-vote split is the same as in the institute’s survey of Tuesday 20 October, O Povo reported. In raw totals, Flávio rose from 48% to 49% while Lula stayed at 45%.
Our report on the Tuesday Real Time Big Data poll shows that survey covered 15 to 19 October. Brazilian outlets describe the new result as a technical tie, given its 2-point margin of error.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian election results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. The raw total counts every voter interviewed, so it shows how many are undecided or plan to vote for neither candidate.
In polling, a technical tie is the label for a result that falls within the margin of error. Brazilian outlets use it for this poll, which means it cannot say for certain which candidate is ahead.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. The Brazil runoff poll tracker lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington in the coming years. A gap inside the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (23 October, 8:39 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$192.5 million in bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.4% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 24%
As of 23 October, 9:20 am ET (14:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
A telephone poll reaches only voters who answer, and it cannot capture any change of mind in the final two days. The survey does not show which way the 1% of undecided voters will go.
It is not known how many voters will turn out on 25 October. Any runoff poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Real Time Big Data?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 52% of valid votes to 48% for Lula. Raw totals are 49% to 45%.
What is the margin of error?
It is 2 percentage points either way at 95% confidence. Brazilian outlets call the race a technical tie.
How does it compare with the institute’s Tuesday poll?
The valid-vote split is unchanged at 52% to 48%. Flávio’s raw total rose from 48% to 49% while Lula stayed at 45%.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, two days after this poll was published. The winner becomes Brazil’s next president.
Who did Real Time Big Data interview?
It interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone from 19 to 22 October. The poll is registered with the electoral court as BR-09670/2026.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 23 October 2026; O Povo, 23 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief