Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s Runoff Rival?
Updated 15 October 2026
Key Facts
- —Who he is Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and the presidential candidate of the Liberal Party (PL).
- —Age He was born on 30 April 1981 and is 45.
- —First round On 4 October he won 47.03% of valid votes (56.1 million) against 45.16% (53.9 million) for President Lula, according to the electoral court (TSE).
- —The runoff He faces Lula on Sunday, 25 October, with polls open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. US Eastern).
- —Latest polls Runoff polls released on 13 October give him 51% (PoderData), 51.8% (Futura) and 55% (Gerp) of valid votes; Datafolha had him at 52% on 8 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026": 5.00-5.49% 46.8%, 5.50-5.99% 32.6% (11 November, 8:37 am ET); prices are bets, not polls.
- —What it means for you The real, Brazilian stocks and the US-listed EWZ fund rallied after his first-round lead on 5 October, so the runoff result is likely to move them again.
Flávio Bolsonaro carries his father’s name into Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October, after finishing first in the opening round. For readers in the United States, he is the conservative candidate who could return the Bolsonaro family to power in Latin America’s largest economy.
This profile answers the questions readers ask most: who he is, how old he is, what he proposes and which investigations follow him. It is updated through the runoff, and our Brazil runoff guide covers the full race.
Where Flávio Bolsonaro Stands (15 October 2026)
Flávio Bolsonaro won 56,104,503 votes on 4 October, 47.03% of valid votes, while Lula of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) won 53,879,538, or 45.16%, according to the electoral court’s final count. Neither passed half of valid votes, which Brazil’s constitution requires to win outright, so the two meet again three weeks later.
Most runoff polls published since then have him ahead in valid votes, though several are within the margin of error. Datafolha gave him 52% to 48% on 8 October, and AtlasIntel 52.8% to 47.2% in a poll released on 9 October.
Four more polls came on Tuesday, 13 October: PoderData put him at 51% to 49%, within its 1.8-point margin of error, BTG/Nexus at 52% to 48%, Futura at 51.8% to 48.2% and Gerp at 55% to 45%. Quaest released its first runoff poll on Wednesday, 14 October, with Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44% of all answers, a statistical tie inside its two-point margin of error, and Datafolha is due on Thursday, 15 October.
He has gathered most of the centre-right since the first round. Romeu Zema of the free-market Novo party, Ronaldo Caiado of the centre-right PSD and Augusto Cury of the small centrist party Avante backed him, the Progressistas (PP) and União Brasil declared support, though some of their state leaders stayed with Lula, and 17 of the 27 state branches of the centrist MDB declared for him on 13 October.
The debates are the open question. On 13 October he said he does not plan to attend Band’s debate on Sunday, 18 October, at 8 p.m. Brasília time (7 p.m. ET), which Lula has confirmed, and his team will decide later on TV Globo’s debate on Friday, 23 October.
How Old Is Flávio Bolsonaro? Early Life and Family
Flávio Nantes Bolsonaro was born on 30 April 1981 in Resende, in Rio de Janeiro state, according to his Senate profile, and he is 45. He is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro and his first wife, Rogéria Nantes Braga, a former Rio de Janeiro city councillor.
His younger brothers Carlos and Eduardo also built careers in politics, and Jair Renan is his half-brother from his father’s second marriage. Michelle Bolsonaro, his father’s third wife and now a senator-elect, is his stepmother, not his mother, and she is about 11 months younger than him.
From Rio’s State Assembly to the Senate
He entered politics at 21, winning a seat in Rio de Janeiro’s state assembly (ALERJ) in 2002 with 22,860 votes, and he served four consecutive terms there. In 2018, on the same wave that took his father to the presidency, he won a federal Senate seat for Rio de Janeiro with 4,380,418 votes, about 31% of valid votes and the most of any candidate in the state.
In the Senate he has backed his father’s security agenda: tougher sentencing, wider gun rights and support for police operations. He has never been a minister or held executive office, and his Senate term ends on 31 January 2027, because he ran for president instead of re-election.
Why He Is the Candidate
The 2026 race was meant to be his father’s rematch with Lula. Instead the Supreme Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro in September 2025 to 27 years and three months for plotting to overturn the 2022 election, which he denies, and the electoral court had already barred him from office until 2030.
Jair Bolsonaro has been under house arrest on health grounds since March 2026, and on 12 October Justice Alexandre de Moraes again allowed Flávio to visit him, on condition that the visits have no electoral use. At a motorcade in São Gonçalo on 10 October, Flávio told supporters that, if he wins, they will see his father put the presidential sash on him, Terra reported.
His running mate is Alfredo Gaspar, a PL federal deputy from the north-eastern state of Alagoas and a former state prosecutor. Gaspar also served as public-security secretary of Alagoas, and the party announced his nomination on 5 August.
What Are Flávio Bolsonaro’s Policies?
His registered government plan, “Para o Brasil Vencer o Atraso” (“For Brazil to Overcome Backwardness”), coordinated by economists Daniella Marques and Adolfo Sachsida, promises to cut at least ten ministries and to create a Ministry of Prosperity, Congresso em Foco reported. It builds on the eight-point platform he set out in February: privatisations, spending cuts and changes to Lula’s tax reform.
On security he promises more prisons, tougher sentences, operations to retake territory held by gangs and looser gun rules. He has also pledged to bring Brazil into the Shield of the Americas, a US-led coalition against organised crime, and wants closer ties with the United States, Israel and Argentina, Agência Brasil reported.
His signature economic idea, SOS Brasil, is a fund he estimates at about R$3 trillion (about US$600 billion) from oil royalties, federal property and the sale of government credit rights. He says it would pay down part of the federal debt, finance infrastructure and buy household debts from banks for refinancing through the state bank Caixa with discounts of up to 90%, but he has not set out a legal structure or timetable, the newspaper O Tempo reported.
After the first round he listed the constitutional amendments he would seek: limits on rulings by single Supreme Court justices, a lower age of criminal responsibility for serious crimes, adjustments to the tax reform and an end to presidential re-election. Each needs three-fifths of both houses in two votes, 308 of 513 deputies and 49 of 81 senators, while Poder360 counts 276 of the deputies elected on 4 October as right-wing.
On 13 October he said he would vote for the constitutional amendment ending the six-day working week, while arguing that the government should pay the cost (our report). To win Augusto Cury’s support on 8 October he also signed a letter of commitments, including an end to re-election, protection for women and support for teachers, Agência Brasil reported.
Controversies and Investigations
The longest-running case concerns alleged salary kickbacks, known in Brazil as “rachadinha”, in his state-assembly office, run through his former aide Fabrício Queiroz. Rio prosecutors charged him in November 2020, but the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) annulled the bank-secrecy evidence in February 2021 and the first-instance rulings in November 2021, and Rio’s state court shelved the charge in May 2022 at the prosecutors’ request.
Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes rejected appeals to reopen the case in February 2025, and Flávio has always denied wrongdoing and has never been convicted. On 29 September 2026 a Workers’ Party deputy and a lawyers’ group asked Rio prosecutors to reopen it, and no response had been reported by 14 October.
The newer case involves Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of the failed Banco Master, who according to the Federal Police put money into Dark Horse, a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorised a Federal Police investigation that includes Flávio on 22 July 2026, and the police say he asked Vorcaro for R$131 million (about US$26 million) for the film, of which about R$60 million (about US$12 million) was paid, the state news agency Agência Brasil reported.
Flávio says the film was a private investment and denies wrongdoing, and he has not been charged. On 13 October the electoral court allowed campaign advertising that links him to Vorcaro but barred linking him to organised crime, Gazeta do Povo reported.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders make him the clear favourite: at 1:48 a.m. ET on 14 October, Polymarket priced his chance of winning at 86.1% and Lula’s at 14.5%, with about US$181 million traded. Its margin-of-victory market gave 44.5% to a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points and 32.5% to a win by less than 4 points, and the card below updates every 20 minutes, including Kalshi, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates in the United States.
Prediction markets · Brazil
What traders bet on now: implied probabilities from the prices of current Brazil markets.
Polymarket | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Yes 7.1% (US$265,668 traded)
Polymarket | Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49% 46.8% · 5.50-5.99% 32.6% · 4.50-4.99% 6.6% (US$226,477 traded)
Kalshi | Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 5 cuts 87% · Exactly 6 cuts 12% · 7 or more cuts 2% (US$211,808 traded)
As of 11 November, 8:37 am ET, updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to Watch
Watch the Senate vote on ending the six-day working week and the Quaest poll on 14 October, Datafolha on 15 October, his TV Globo interview on 16 October and whether he skips the Band debate on 18 October. Watch also the Globo debate on 23 October and the end of free campaign airtime the same day, before the vote on 25 October.
For the full race, read our runoff guide and follow every survey in our poll tracker. Our odds page tracks Polymarket and Kalshi, and our profiles explain who Lula is and who Michelle Bolsonaro is.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He is the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate and faces Lula in the runoff on 25 October 2026.
How old is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro is 45. He was born on 30 April 1981 in Resende, in Rio de Janeiro state.
Is Flávio Bolsonaro Jair Bolsonaro’s son?
Yes, he is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro and his first wife, Rogéria Nantes Braga. Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair’s current wife, is his stepmother.
What are Flávio Bolsonaro’s policies?
He promises privatisations, spending cuts, at least ten fewer ministries, tougher policing and sentences, and a fund he calls SOS Brasil to refinance household debts. He also wants constitutional amendments to limit single-justice Supreme Court rulings, lower the age of criminal responsibility for serious crimes and end presidential re-election.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro’s running mate?
His running mate is Alfredo Gaspar, a Liberal Party federal deputy from Alagoas. Gaspar is a former state prosecutor and a former public-security secretary of Alagoas.
Was Flávio Bolsonaro convicted in the Queiroz case?
No, he has never been convicted, and he denies wrongdoing. Courts annulled the evidence and earlier rulings in 2021, and Rio’s state court shelved the charge in 2022 at the prosecutors’ request.
What did Flávio Bolsonaro get in the first round?
He won 47.03% of valid votes on 4 October 2026, about 56.1 million votes, against 45.16% for Lula. Because no one passed 50%, the two meet in a runoff on 25 October.
Can Flávio Bolsonaro win the runoff?
Most runoff polls released through 13 October put him ahead, with 51% to 55% of valid votes, though some are within the margin of error. Prediction markets priced his chance at about 86% on 14 October, which is a bet, not a poll.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results, 4 and 5 October 2026; Senate of Brazil profile of Flávio Bolsonaro; Chamber of Deputies biography of Alfredo Gaspar; Itatiaia (June 2026); Datafolha via Folha de S.Paulo (8 October 2026); AtlasIntel via Exame (9 October 2026); PoderData via Poder360, BTG/Nexus via Exame, Futura via Estadão Conteúdo and Gerp (13 October 2026); Metrópoles, Agência Brasil and Congresso em Foco on endorsements (October 2026); Brasil de Fato, Terra and Poder360 on the debates (13 October 2026); O Tempo and Congresso em Foco on SOS Brasil and the government plan; Congresso em Foco and Agência Brasil on constitutional amendments and foreign policy (October 2026); Terra (10 and 13 October 2026); Agência Brasil, Conjur, InfoMoney and Correio Braziliense on the rachadinha case; Agência Brasil on the Dark Horse inquiry (July and September 2026); Gazeta do Povo on the electoral court ruling (13 October 2026); B3 and g1 on the market reaction (5 October 2026); Polymarket and Kalshi (14 October 2026); Central Bank of Brazil PTAX rate, 13 October 2026.
Brazil Runoff 2026: Our Coverage
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff: date, poll closing times and when results start. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.