Brazil Poll Has Lula 50.6%, Flávio 49.4%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 8:17 AM ET · Source: Vox Brasil polling institute
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, Vox Brasil published a runoff survey that puts Lula narrowly ahead in a technical tie.
- The numbers Lula has 50.6% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 49.4%, a gap of 1.2 points.
- Margin of error 2.15 percentage points, so the 1.2-point gap in valid votes is inside the margin.
- Fieldwork 2,100 voters interviewed in person from 20 to 22 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (23 October, 8:14 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 23% and 23%), as of 23 October, 8:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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Vox Brasil, a Brazilian polling institute, put Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 50.6% and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 49.4% of valid votes in a runoff survey published on Friday 23 October. The result keeps the Brazil election 2026 race a technical tie.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey, and the Brazil election odds page follows the betting markets.
What the Final Vox Brasil Poll Found
Vox Brasil interviewed 2,100 voters in person across Brazil from 20 to 22 October, CNN Brasil reported. The margin of error is 2.15 percentage points.
Valid votes leave out blank, null and undecided answers, and on that measure Lula has 50.6% and Flávio Bolsonaro 49.4%, Veja reported. The 1.2-point gap is smaller than the survey’s margin of error.
How the Race Moved Since Last Week
The previous Vox Brasil round, which we covered in our earlier report on the Vox Brasil poll, had Lula at 51% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% of valid votes.
The shift is 0.4 points for each candidate, well inside the margin of error. Lula keeps a razor-thin lead in valid votes, but it is smaller than the 2-point gap in the previous round.
Rejection Rates in the Final Stretch
Vox Brasil found that 47.1% of respondents would never vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, against 44.8% for Lula, CNN Brasil reported. Another 3.9% reject both men, and 2.2% reject neither.
Rejection measures how many voters rule a candidate out, which can matter as much as support in a two-person race. The 2.3-point gap between the two rates is close to the poll’s overall margin of error.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court (TSE) will announce on election night.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2.15-point margin of error, this survey cannot separate the two candidates.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the count is known. Our Brazil runoff date guide explains when results start to arrive on Sunday.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. Other recent surveys point the other way, so the 25 October result is far from settled.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (23 October, 8:14 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$192.5 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 23%
As of 23 October, 8:20 am ET (13:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The poll cannot show how many undecided voters will pick a candidate, or whether some will stay home on 25 October. Other recent polls differ from this one, so no single survey settles the picture.
Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. The final answer comes only from the TSE count.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Vox Brasil?
Lula leads narrowly with 50.6% of valid votes against 49.4% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The gap is inside the 2.15-point margin of error, so it is a technical tie.
How many voters did Vox Brasil interview?
It interviewed 2,100 voters in person across Brazil from 20 to 22 October. The margin of error is 2.15 percentage points.
How did Vox Brasil change from its last poll?
The previous round had Lula at 51% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% of valid votes. Each moved 0.4 points, well within the margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, two days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is the margin of error of the poll?
It is 2.15 percentage points up or down. Any gap smaller than that cannot show who is truly ahead.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 23 October 2026; Veja, 23 October 2026; CartaCapital, 23 October 2026; Revista Oeste, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief