Brazil’s Onshore Oil Boom Targets 29% Growth by 2028
Brazil’s onshore oil and gas production grabs attention as the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) forecasts a 29% rise by 2028. The agency predicts output will jump from 232,328 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in 2024 to 300,271 boed.
This climb reverses a long decline that bottomed out at 206,792 boed in 2022. The story begins with a shift in focus. Offshore fields, especially the pre-salt reserves, long overshadowed onshore efforts, which dropped from 298,935 boed in 2016.
Petrobras’ multi-billion-dollar divestment plan changed that, selling mature assets and inviting over 50 independent firms to invest. Next year, production hits 242,276 boed, a 4.3% increase from 2024, with steady gains projected through 2028.
The ANP credits regulatory moves, like slashing royalties on extra output from aging fields. These steps encourage companies to pump more from wells once considered past their prime.
The agency also extends concession contracts, letting operators plan long-term. Smaller firms benefit too, enjoying lower royalty rates and simpler rules for new development plans. This opens doors for fresh capital in states like Rio Grande do Norte, a key producer.
Behind the figures lies a bigger tale. Onshore output cratered to 107,400 boed in 2019 after peaking above 209,100 boed in 2000. The focus on offshore giants left inland fields neglected until now.
Brazil’s Onshore Oil Revival Signals Stability
Today’s revival boosts local jobs and royalties, though offshore still rules with 97% of Brazil’s 3.358 million daily barrels. The ANP’s strategy targets mature fields, pushing output back to 2016 levels by 2028.
Permanent bidding rounds and gas programs hint at growth beyond that. Independent players drive this shift, diversifying a sector Petrobras once dominated. This resurgence matters to business. It signals opportunity in a market overshadowed by offshore riches.
Onshore’s steady climb offers stability, jobs, and revenue to inland regions, balancing Brazil’s oil story. The numbers—242,276 boed in 2025, 300,271 boed in 2028—tell of a quiet but real comeback.
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