Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 26, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets face mounting pressures from deteriorating external accounts, escalating inflation, and robust U.S. economic data signaling delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, even as Petrobras advances toward a pivotal deep-water drilling license and employment hits historic lows.
Brazil’s external accounts recorded a $40 billion current account deficit for January-July 2025, the worst mid-year gap in a decade since 2015, driven by a 22% surge in imports of cheap Chinese goods totaling $35.7 billion in the first half, while U.S. tariffs triggered an 18.5% drop in exports to the U.S. ($4 billion in August).
Mid-month inflation (IPCA-15) for September jumped to 5.32% year-over-year, up from 4.95% and exceeding the central bank’s 3% target, with a 0.48% month-over-month rise fueled by fuel and administered prices, complicating Selic rate decisions and pressuring the real.
Unemployment fell to a record low of 5.6% as reported by the Central Bank on September 25, creating over 2 million formal jobs and reaching full employment with 102.4 million employed, but wage growth is stoking services inflation amid decelerating GDP from 1.3% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, with 2025 growth forecasts cut to 2.0%.
Petrobras nears a drilling license for Block FZA-M-59 in the Foz do Amazonas basin, potentially unlocking 10 billion barrels in the Equatorial Margin through a $3 billion exploration program by 2029, balancing energy security with environmental risks ahead of COP30.
These developments, combined with today’s critical economic agenda, set the stage for heightened market sensitivity as investors weigh domestic inflationary headwinds and external vulnerabilities against potential energy upside and global liquidity shifts.
Economic Agenda for September 26, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 7:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Aug): Actual -5.50B, Consensus -5.50B, Previous -7.07B. Tracks trade and income balances.
Implication: A narrower deficit than July’s $7.1 billion could ease concerns over the $40 billion mid-year gap, supporting the real by signaling improved external balances amid rising Chinese imports and U.S. tariff pressures, though reliance on volatile portfolio inflows persists if deficits exceed FDI.
- 7:30 AM BRT – Foreign Direct Investment (USD) (Aug): Actual 6.20B, Consensus 6.20B, Previous 8.32B. Measures capital inflows.
Implication: Steady FDI at $6.20 billion would help finance the 3.5% of GDP 12-month deficit, bolstering reserves and investor confidence, but a shortfall could heighten debt risks and pressure credit-dependent sectors like retail amid high Selic rates.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.3%. Core inflation gauge preferred by Fed.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.9%, Previous 2.9%. Annual core inflation.
- 8:30 AM BRT – PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.7%, Previous 2.6%. Headline annual inflation.
- 8:30 AM BRT – PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.2%. Headline monthly inflation.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Personal Income (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.4%. Tracks wage growth.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.5%, Previous 0.5%. Measures consumer outlays.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.3%. Inflation-adjusted spending.
- 9:00 AM BRT – Dallas Fed PCE (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.90%. Regional inflation measure.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 4.8%, Previous 4.8%. Short-term inflation outlook.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.9%, Previous 3.5%. Long-term inflation outlook.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 51.8, Previous 55.9. Consumer forward-looking sentiment.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 55.4, Previous 58.2. Overall consumer confidence.
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Current Conditions (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 61.2, Previous 61.7. Current economic perceptions.
- 13:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 418. Tracks drilling activity.
- 13:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 542. Overall rig operations.
Implication: U.S. PCE data, following yesterday’s strong GDP revision to 3.8% and jobless claims at 218K, could further delay Fed cuts, strengthening the dollar and pressuring the real (now at 5.36/USD) while curbing commodity demand critical for Brazil’s oil and ag exports; softer inflation might revive easing hopes, lifting Petrobras and Vale via global risk appetite.
Michigan sentiment and rig counts will gauge consumer strength and energy outlook, influencing Brazil’s export competitiveness.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 1:00 AM BRT – Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.8%, Previous 2.8%. Annual growth.
- 1:00 AM BRT – Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.7%, Previous 0.6%. Quarterly growth.
- 4:00 AM BRT – Italian Business Confidence (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 87.5, Previous 87.4. Business sentiment.
- 4:00 AM BRT – Italian Consumer Confidence (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 96.5, Previous 96.2. Consumer sentiment.
- 5:30 AM BRT – Italian 10-Year BTP Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.58%. Bond yield.
- 5:30 AM BRT – Italian 5-Year BTP Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.80%. Bond yield.
- 5:30 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy commentary.
- 6:00 AM BRT – France Jobseekers Total (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3,033.5K. Unemployment metric.
Implication: Stronger Spanish GDP or improved Italian confidence could boost Eurozone demand for Brazil’s steel, soy, and autos, supporting Vale and ag exporters; Lagarde’s remarks may signal ECB easing, easing global yields and aiding Brazil’s export margins amid U.S. dollar strength.
Other Countries
Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)
- 8:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -1.200B, Previous -0.017B. Trade gap in MXN.
- 8:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (USD) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.296B. Trade gap in USD.
Implication: A wider deficit could pressure the peso (now at 18.46/USD), spilling into Mercosur volatility and Brazil’s regional exports like autos and machinery, though Mexico’s resilient IPC (+0.8% to 61,915) supports cross-border trade stability.
Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)
- 1:30 AM BRT – BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy insights.
Implication: Noguchi’s comments could hint at BoJ normalization, strengthening the yen and curbing Asian demand for Brazil’s commodities; steady policy would sustain soy and iron ore flows to Japan.
Singapore (High-Growth Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$0.50 trillion)
- 1:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug): Actual -7.8%, Consensus -2.5%, Previous 7.7%. Annual output.
- 1:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug): Actual -9.7%, Consensus -4.6%, Previous 8.8%. Monthly output.
Implication: Sharp industrial contraction signals weakening Asian manufacturing, potentially hitting Brazil’s commodity exports to the region, though less direct than China’s influence on imports.
India (5th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$3.90 trillion)
- 7:30 AM BRT – Bank Loan Growth: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 10.0%. Credit expansion.
- 7:30 AM BRT – Deposit Growth: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 10.2%. Savings trends.
- 7:30 AM BRT – FX Reserves, USD: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 702.97B. Reserve levels.
Implication: Robust loan/deposit growth could fuel Indian demand for Brazilian oil and ag products, stabilizing exports amid U.S. tariff risks.
Canada (9th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.25 trillion)
- 8:30 AM BRT – GDP (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.1%, Previous -0.1%. Monthly growth.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.2%. Wholesale activity.
- 8:31 AM BRT – GDP (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Monthly growth.
- 11:00 AM BRT – Budget Balance (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -3.34B. Fiscal year-over-year.
- 11:00 AM BRT – Budget Balance (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.63B. Monthly fiscal.
Implication: Canadian GDP and wholesale data influence North American commodity flows, with stronger growth lifting demand for Brazilian iron ore via Vale partnerships.
China (2nd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$18.50 trillion)
- 9:30 PM BRT – Chinese Industrial Profit YTD (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.7%. Profit trends.
Implication: Improved profits could accelerate Chinese purchases of Brazilian soy and iron (up 30% to $7.3 billion in August), offsetting U.S. export declines and supporting ag/mining sectors.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s current account and FDI data will clarify external vulnerabilities from the $40 billion deficit and Chinese import surge, shaping real stability and FDI appeal amid inflation at 5.32%.
U.S. PCE and sentiment metrics build on yesterday’s GDP/jobs strength, potentially prolonging dollar gains that weakened the real to 5.36/USD and curbed EM inflows, impacting Petrobras and exporters.
Eurozone confidence and Lagarde’s speech affect demand for Brazil’s EU-bound commodities, while Mexico’s trade, Japan/India metrics, Canadian GDP, and China profits influence regional/Asian trade dynamics critical for diversifying from U.S. tariffs.
The employment boom at 5.6% unemployment and Petrobras’ Amazon license progress bolster long-term growth to 2.0% in 2025, though inflation headwinds and global Fed signals introduce volatility risks.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa index tumbled 1,185 points to close at 145,306 on September 25, 2025, down 0.81%, snapping a record-high streak amid profit-taking triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. data revising Q2 GDP to 3.8% and jobless claims to 218,000, dimming Fed cut hopes and diverting flows from EM assets.
The selloff erased recent gains, with the index 38.8% through its trading range after peaking at 147,178 on Monday, pressured by a 22% YTD surge now vulnerable to global yields; volume hit 20.1 billion reais, signaling institutional caution.
The real weakened 0.70% to 5.32 per dollar intraday before stabilizing at 5.36, as U.S. strength eroded Brazil’s 11-point Selic premium appeal.
Raizen fell 7.27% to R$1.02 on debt woes, Cosan dropped 7.01% post-capital raise, and Ambipar plunged 24.24% seeking creditor protection; winners included Natura & Co (+2.34% to R$9.18), Magazine Luiza (+1.29% to R$11.02), and Ambev (+0.65% to R$12.46).
The three-day moving average at 146,074 acts as resistance, with a gravestone doji hinting at consolidation; support at 145,000, resistance at 146,500-147,200, and RSI neutral amid foreign flow risks.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets declined on September 25, 2025, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all falling for the third consecutive day, reflecting persistent concerns over mounting inflation fears, Federal Reserve rate policy uncertainty, and risks of a potential government shutdown.
After market close, President Trump signed an order related to TikTok, adding downward pressure on tech sector sentiment amid broader profit-taking.
Defensive positioning intensified as investors awaited PCE inflation data today, with volatility elevated following the GDP revision to 3.8% and low jobless claims.
Energy held firmer on oil stability, but technology and consumer discretionary led losses, underscoring caution in a high-yield environment.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC index rose 0.8% to 61,915 points on September 25, 2025, breaking above the 200-day SMA on rising volume, confirming bullish momentum past 61,700 amid resilient growth signals.
The peso strengthened to 18.46 per dollar, with USD/MXN topping the 20-day SMA and MACD bullish, though RSI near 60 flags mild overbought risks; September inflation at 3.72% YoY delays Banxico cuts to October, keeping real rates attractive.
Industrial production +0.4% and retail +1.1% in August supported gains, with Grupo Mexico (+2.80% to 147.00), Alsea (+2.69% to 60.78), and Orbia (+2.79% to 16.21) leading; losers included Gentera (-5.02% to 47.11) on credit costs. MACD expanded and Bollinger Bands narrowed for consolidation, eyeing 62,000 resistance.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The S&P Merval fell 4.1% to 1,767,848 points on September 25, 2025, slumping below 50- and 200-day moving averages on heavy volume exceeding the 20-day average, amid dollar scarcity and ETF outflows.
The official USD/ARS held at 1,339.53, but parallel rates hit 1,400, highlighting currency strains; MACD negative and RSI at 41 signal downside momentum, with four-hour support at 1,666,883 and stochastic RSI exiting oversold.
Loma Negra (+3.27%) and IRSA (+2.70%) gained modestly, while Metrogas (-3.96%), Edenor (-3.78%), and Comercial del Plata (-2.17%) dragged; Bollinger Bands narrowed, suggesting volatility pause but ongoing sell-off risks from fiscal pressures.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The COLCAP index dipped 0.26% to 1,875.73 points on September 25, 2025, pausing near 1,880 resistance after a rally, with profit-taking evident despite energy and finance support.
The peso steadied at 3,902.3 per dollar, up 4% monthly on oil revenues and a softer USD Index at 98.37; daily RSI at 61 flags mild overbought, but four-hour MACD bullish and narrowing Bollinger Bands hint at upside if volume builds.
Ecopetrol (+1.1%), Bancolombia (+0.9%), and Grupo Aval (+0.8%) led gains; decliners included Grupo Nutresa (-1.3%) and Avianca (-1.1%). Support at 1,854 (100-day SMA), resistance at 1,880-1,900, with steady flows bolstering resilience.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The IPSA declined 0.82% to 9,040.46 points on September 25, 2025, forming a bearish harami after gains, with 145 million shares traded above the 30-day average signaling consolidation.
The peso slipped to 959.49 per dollar on U.S. yield rises and exporter hedging, with interbank volume at 420 billion pesos; RSI neutral at 50 and waning MACD indicate balanced but tense momentum.
Banco Santander Chile (-1.5%) and Falabella (-1.2%) weighed on financials/retail, while SQM (+0.8%) rose on lithium; copper futures fell 0.9% on China concerns. Support at 8,950 (200-day MA at 8,850), resistance at 9,100, with potential rebound above 9,100.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real weakened to 5.36 per dollar on September 25, 2025, flat from Thursday’s 0.70% dollar surge, pressured by U.S. GDP at 3.8% and claims at 218K eroding Fed cut odds despite Selic’s 15% premium over U.S. 4%.
The USD/BRL pair ranged 5.28-5.37, with RSI at 43 neutral and Global Liquidity Index near highs failing to fully aid EM currencies amid Brazil’s 5.32% inflation and 2.0% growth cut.
High rates curb imports but challenge exporters; forecasts hold Selic steady, with inflation to 3% by 2028, predicting year-end at 5.25 if external deficits narrow, though U.S. strength risks wider ranges.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin plunged to $109,054 on September 25, 2025, down sharply with $1.7 billion in liquidations across 407,000 traders (average $4,177 loss), erasing $162 billion in market cap amid whale sales of 147,000 BTC ($16.6 billion since August) and $253.4 million ETF outflows.
Ethereum fell 2.57% to $3,914, Solana 5.20% to $194, and XRP 4.01% to $2.74, with $22.6 billion in expiring options adding pressure; BlackRock’s ETF bucked with $79.7 million inflows.
Brazil’s fintech eyes adoption, but 15% Selic and global uncertainty mute retail; RSI oversold, with U.S. PCE pivotal for rebounds.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-heavy economy grapples with a $40 billion external deficit and 5.32% mid-month inflation, sustaining 15% Selic rates amid 5.6% unemployment full employment driving wage-led services pressures, with growth cut to 2.0% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026.
Petrobras’ Amazon basin license push promises 10 billion barrels via $3 billion exploration, aiding energy security despite eco-risks.
Today’s current account/FDI (7:30 AM BRT), U.S. PCE cluster (8:30 AM BRT), and Lagarde speech (5:30 AM BRT) will steer energy, retail, and export outlooks, with Fed delays and U.S. tariffs adding volatility to ag/mining.
Key Developments
Petrobras’ Amazon Drilling Advance: Petrobras completed Ibama’s final spill drill this month for Block FZA-M-59, 175 km off Amapá, eyeing 10 billion barrels in the Equatorial Margin to sustain 3 million bpd through 2030 via $3 billion program ($185 million invested).
Senator Alcolumbre backs jobs/tax gains, but 29 Ibama experts cite spill/wildlife risks; Minister Silva approved enhanced plans, with President Agostinho’s decision balancing COP30 climate pledges and energy needs.
Inflation Surge Pressures Selic: September IPCA-15 hit 5.32% YoY (consensus 5.36%, prev. 4.95%) and 0.48% MoM (consensus 0.51%, prev. -0.14%), driven by fuels, keeping Selic pause-biased and compressing real yields; stronger USD from U.S. data drags BRL ranges, favoring exporters but lagging rate-sensitives like retail.
Employment Boom Fuels Inflation Woes: Unemployment at 5.6% (lowest since 2012) added 2 million jobs to 102.4 million employed, but wage hikes stoke services inflation at elevated levels despite August headline at 5.13%; BCB cuts growth to 2.0% 2025, holds Selic at 15% (highest since 2006), with inflation to 4.8% year-end and target by 2028.
External Accounts Deteriorate: July current account deficit widened to $7.1 billion (up from $5.2 billion YoY), with Jan-Jul at $40 billion (worst since 2015); Chinese imports +22% to $35.7 billion H1, U.S. exports -18.5% ($4 billion Aug) on 50% tariffs, travel outflows $5 billion, and income deficit +18% to $8.9 billion force portfolio/debt reliance at 3.5% GDP.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.44%
177,547.57
+2.44%
67,303.83
+0.88%
11,009.22
+0.50%
3,379,771
+2.98%
2,297.00
-0.19%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 177,547.57 | +2.44% | +32.46% | 173,325.65 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.05 | -0.01% | -9.16% | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -0.36% | -11.45% | 5.80 | 5.78 | 5.77 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.18 | +2.24% | +40.39% | 94.07 | 96.47 | 94.88 | 2,934 |
| WTI | 88.36 | +1.76% | +35.42% | 86.83 | 88.67 | 87.32 | 29,013 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,128 | -0.46% | +21.62% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,075 | 23,731 |
| SILVER | 60.12 | +0.17% | +53.06% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 59.05 | 3,724 |
| LITHIUM | 69.00 | -0.12% | +58.73% | 69.08 | 69.65 | 68.95 | 261,058 |
| SOY | 1,242 | +0.73% | +23.49% | 1,233 | 1,245 | 1,236 | 10,885 |
| CORN | 484.75 | +4.92% | +21.64% | 462.00 | 486.00 | 483.00 | 16,426 |
| WHEAT | 703.75 | -0.28% | +30.20% | 705.75 | 708.50 | 702.25 | 4,031 |
| COFFEE | 318.05 | -4.19% | +5.54% | 331.95 | 324.60 | 313.35 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.75 | -0.87% | -9.17% | 14.88 | 14.94 | 14.67 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 147.50 | +2.57% | -56.17% | 143.80 | 150.50 | 140.55 | — |
| COTTON | 81.36 | +3.04% | +22.13% | 78.96 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 12,672 |
| BEEF | 219.20 | -3.30% | -3.45% | 226.68 | 222.55 | 218.83 | 22,518 |
| CATTLE | 336.15 | -3.83% | +1.40% | 349.55 | 344.00 | 335.00 | 11,864 |
| COCOA | 5,353 | -4.53% | -36.58% | 5,607 | 5,534 | 5,240 | — |
| PETR4 | 42.58 | +2.21% | +35.82% | 41.66 | 42.74 | 41.97 | 38,183,300 |
| VALE3 | 75.10 | +3.77% | +30.61% | 72.37 | 75.10 | — | — |
| SUZB3 | 42.66 | +2.47% | -16.78% | 41.63 | 42.69 | 41.65 | 4,974,100 |
| KLABIN | 17.93 | +1.93% | -2.74% | 17.59 | 17.93 | — | — |
| SLCE3 | 13.96 | +1.53% | -12.41% | 13.75 | 14.01 | 13.71 | 4,319,100 |
| ABEV3 | 16.13 | +2.09% | +20.37% | 15.80 | 16.14 | 15.74 | 28,786,900 |
| ITUB4 | 42.90 | +0.87% | +26.25% | 42.53 | 42.98 | 42.27 | 21,968,600 |
| BBDC4 | 18.97 | +2.26% | +21.37% | 18.55 | 18.97 | 18.50 | 36,435,800 |
| BBAS3 | 21.09 | +1.01% | +6.03% | 20.88 | 21.13 | 20.72 | 19,245,300 |
| B3SA3 | 15.90 | +4.81% | +21.65% | 15.17 | 15.92 | 15.21 | 46,018,300 |
| WEGE3 | 46.74 | +10.05% | +13.12% | 42.47 | 47.06 | 44.80 | 34,056,700 |
| PRIO3 | 59.77 | +2.73% | +40.37% | 58.18 | 59.99 | 58.66 | 5,034,400 |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +1.61% | +3.74% | 36.55 | 37.57 | 36.42 | 16,101,400 |
| AZZA3 | 17.81 | +1.89% | -50.51% | 17.48 | 17.81 | 17.06 | 1,753,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.38 | +6.32% | -37.15% | 5.06 | 5.38 | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +2.43% | +42.28% | 23.49 | 24.06 | — | — |
| ENEV3 | 25.97 | +2.16% | +88.19% | 25.42 | 25.97 | — | — |
| LREN3 | 13.54 | +2.03% | -22.27% | 13.27 | 13.54 | — | — |
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