Chilean Peso’s Struggle and IPSA’s Pause Reveal Global Tensions

Market currents pushed the Chilean peso to 959.49 per dollar on September 26, as rising U.S. yields and firm dollar demand squeezed emerging-market currencies. Traders covered exporter hedges ahead of quarter-end, driving interbank volumes to 420 billion pesos.

Global drivers weighed on local stocks. The S&P IPSA fell 0.82 percent to 9,040.46 after two days of strong gains. Banco Santander Chile led losses, down 1.5 percent, as investors pocketed recent profits.

Falabella slid 1.2 percent on flat retail data. SQM bucked the trend and rose 0.8 percent on renewed lithium demand. Volume reached 145 million shares, above its 30-day average.

Strong U.S. labor data sent the Dollar Index to 98.36. Weekly jobless claims at 218,000 beat forecasts and reinforced expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts.

Copper futures dropped 0.9 percent on Chinese manufacturing concerns, testing Chile’s export outlook. The central bank held rates at 11.25 percent but warned it would hike again if inflation remains high.

Technically, the IPSA formed a bearish harami on its daily chart, signaling short-term consolidation near resistance at 9,100. Its RSI at 50 suggests neutral momentum, while MACD momentum wanes.

A break above 9,100 could target 9,200. A drop below 8,950 may test the 200-day moving average at 8,850. Behind the figures, exporters rushed to secure dollars before quarter-end.

Fund managers shifted allocations as U.S. data reinforced dollar strength. Traders cited tight global liquidity, reflected in the Global Liquidity Index at 99.51, as a drag on emerging markets.

Top five IPSA winners and losers:

Winners: SQM (+0.8 percent), CAP (+0.6 percent), Enel Chile (+0.5 percent), Cencosud (+0.4 percent), Empresas CMPC (+0.3 percent).

Losers: Banco Santander Chile (–1.5 percent), Falabella (–1.2 percent), LATAM Airlines (–1.1 percent), Banco de Chile (–1.0 percent), Copec (–0.9 percent).

Investors now eye U.S. core PCE inflation and Chile’s CPI for clues on future policy. A stronger dollar and weak copper will likely keep pressure on the peso and test local stocks’ resilience into month-end.