Colombian Peso Steadies as COLCAP Briefly Pauses; Energy and Finance Lead Gains

On September 26, Banco de la República data show the peso held at 3,902.3 per dollar, barely changed since yesterday’s close. Oil prices climbed slightly, bolstering export revenue.

The central bank kept its rate at 9.25 percent, balancing high inflation against growth. Equities paused after a strong rally. The MSCI COLCAP index fell 0.26 percent to 1,875.73 points.

Profit-taking surfaced near the 1,880 resistance, where the index touched its five-week high this week. Daily RSI at 61 suggests mild overbought conditions. Technical signs mixed. The four-hour MACD crossed above its signal, hinting at fresh upside if volume confirms the move.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart narrowed, pointing to lighter volatility ahead. Support stands at 1,854, where the 100-day SMA anchors the uptrend. Resistance lies at 1,880–1,900.

Global liquidity, tracked by the NDQ, dipped to 99.8, mirroring moderate ETF outflows from emerging markets. Pension funds continued modest net purchases of Colombia-focused ETFs as they chase yield amid low global rates.

Fundamentals underpin the market. August inflation eased to 5.1 percent but remained above the central bank’s target.

A wider trade surplus on higher oil exports boosted reserves. The fiscal deficit rose to 7.1 percent of GDP, prompting ongoing tax reform debates.

The US Dollar Index fell to 98.37 on weaker US retail data and growing Fed rate-cut expectations. That softness supported the peso’s 4 percent gain this month.

Top five COLCAP gainers yesterday included:

• Ecopetrol, +1.1 percent
• Bancolombia, +0.9 percent
• Grupo Aval, +0.8 percent
• Canacol Energy, +0.7 percent
• Cementos Argos, +0.6 percent

Top five decliners were:

• Grupo Nutresa, –1.3 percent
• Avianca, –1.1 percent
• ISA, –1.0 percent
• Mineros, –0.9 percent
• Almacenes Éxito, –0.8 percent

Market makers cite steady external flows and oil gains as drivers of the peso rally rather than policy shifts. Investors now await US jobs data and Colombia’s October 1 monetary minutes. Solid fundamentals and technical support suggest only a brief consolidation before the next advance.