Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 18, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are positioned for another dynamic session today as key economic indicators from both domestic and international sources influence monetary policy expectations, currency movements, and overall market performance.
Today’s spotlight in Brazil falls on the IGP-10 Inflation Index for March, scheduled for release at 7:00 AM local time.
This monthly inflation gauge will provide critical insights into Brazil’s price pressures amid concerns that inflation remains significantly above the Central Bank’s target ceiling.
The IGP-10 release comes at a pivotal moment, as the Central Bank’s latest Focus report showed inflation forecasts edging down slightly to 5.66% for 2025 after 19 consecutive weeks of increases.
This reading will help shape expectations for the Central Bank’s next interest rate decision, with economists already projecting a rate hike from the current 13.25% to 14.25% at the upcoming March meeting.
Internationally, key U.S. data will demand attention, including February Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30 AM, Industrial Production at 9:15 AM, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate at 1:15 PM.
These indicators will signal the health of the world’s largest economy and potentially influence global risk sentiment and commodity prices.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment data and Trade Balance figures, alongside Japan’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision, will also impact global markets, with indirect implications for Brazil’s export outlook and currency valuation.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 18, 2025
Brazil
7:00 AM – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This index measures monthly inflation trends in Brazil, influencing monetary policy and economic expectations.
Canada (Americas)
8:30 AM – Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.4%. This tracks monthly changes in core consumer prices, excluding volatile items, guiding inflation forecasts.
8:30 AM – Core CPI (YoY) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.1%. This measures year-over-year core inflation, reflecting persistent price pressures in Canada.
8:30 AM – CPI (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.6%, previous 0.1%. This gauge of monthly consumer price changes impacts monetary policy and purchasing power.
United States (Americas)
8:30 AM – Building Permits (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 1.450M, previous 1.473M. This reflects residential construction activity, a key indicator of economic health.
8:30 AM – Export Price Index (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus -0.2%, previous 1.3%. This tracks monthly changes in export prices, affecting trade competitiveness.
8:30 AM – Housing Starts (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 1.380M, previous 1.366M. This measures new residential construction starts, signaling housing market trends.
8:30 AM – Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -9.8%. This shows the monthly change in housing starts, indicating construction momentum.
8:30 AM – Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus -0.1%, previous 0.3%. This monitors monthly import price shifts, influencing inflation and trade balances.
9:15 AM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.5%. This tracks monthly industrial output changes, a core economic driver.
9:15 AM – Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.00%. This measures year-over-year industrial growth, reflecting sector performance.
1:00 PM – 20-Year Bond Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 4.830%. This auction influences long-term borrowing costs and investor confidence.
1:15 PM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus -2.1%, previous -2.1%. This real-time GDP estimate shapes economic outlooks.
4:30 PM – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 4.247M. This reports weekly oil inventory changes, impacting energy markets.
Germany
6:00 AM – German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus -80.5, previous -88.5. This assesses current economic conditions, guiding European market sentiment.
6:00 AM – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 48.1, previous 26.0. This reflects economic expectations, influencing investor outlook.
6:00 AM – Trade Balance (Jan): Actual TBD, consensus 14.0B, previous 15.5B. This measures export-import dynamics, signaling Germany’s trade health.
6:00 AM – ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 43.6, previous 24.2. This broader Eurozone sentiment gauge affects regional economic perceptions.
Japan
12:30 AM – Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Jan): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This tracks service sector activity, a key component of Japan’s economy.
7:50 PM – Adjusted Trade Balance: Actual TBD, consensus 0.51T, previous -0.86T. This adjusted figure reflects Japan’s trade position, impacting yen valuation.
7:50 PM – Exports (YoY) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 12.1%, previous 7.2%. This measures year-over-year export growth, signaling global demand.
7:50 PM – Trade Balance (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 722.8B, previous -2,758.8B. This raw trade balance affects economic policy and currency strength.
10:30 PM – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This statement outlines Japan’s monetary stance, guiding markets.
11:00 PM – BoJ Interest Rate Decision: Actual TBD, consensus 0.50%, previous 0.50%. This decision shapes borrowing costs and economic activity.
New Zealand
4:00 PM – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 97.5. This measures consumer confidence, influencing spending trends.
5:45 PM – Current Account (YoY) (Q4): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -26.99B. This tracks annual external balances, reflecting economic stability.
5:45 PM – Current Account (QoQ) (Q4): Actual TBD, consensus -6.68B, previous -10.58B. This quarterly figure signals short-term external financing trends.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market continued its positive momentum on Monday, with the Ibovespa index closing at 130,500 points, surpassing a 1% gain from the previous session and reaching a four-month high.
This marked the highest level since November 2024, extending early gains driven by strength in commodity-linked stocks amid positive external developments, particularly from China.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian real strengthened further against the US dollar, with the exchange rate dropping below R$5.69, reflecting continued optimism fueled by both domestic resilience and global support.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks climbed again following weeks of scary swings. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% Monday and notched a second straight gain after falling 10% below its recent record last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.3%.
More big swings could be ahead, with a decision by the Federal Reserve on interest rates coming later in the week and worries continuing about President Donald Trump’s trade war.
A report on U.S. retail sales was weaker than expected but may not have been as bad as it seemed on the surface.
- The S&P 500 rose 36.18 points, or 0.6%, to 5,675.12.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 353.44 points, or 0.9%, to 41,841.63.
- The Nasdaq composite rose 54.58 points, or 0.3%, to 17,808.66.
- The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 24.24 points, or 1.2%, to 2,068.33.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Oil prices edged higher as geopolitical tensions outweighed supply concerns, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate posting gains amid a March rally spurred by China’s stimulus measures.
Gold Prices
Gold shattered the $3,000 ceiling, driven by Trump tariffs and a record-breaking rally, bolstering Brazil’s mining sector as a hedge against global uncertainty.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets stood at a crossroads, with Bitcoin testing $82K support amid a 17-day ETF outflow streak, potentially influencing Brazilian fintech sentiment.
Companies and Market
Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer announced plans to resume dividend payments in 2025 after a six-year hiatus.
Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts Brazil’s economic growth will significantly decelerate due to Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Brazil’s expansion will slow from 3.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and further decline to 1.4% in 2026.
Brazil’s economic activity surged beyond expectations in early 2025, with the IBC-Br index showing a 0.8% increase in January, reinforcing investor optimism.
Outlook
Today’s market direction will hinge on the IGP-10 Inflation Index release in Brazil, alongside the slew of U.S. data including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production.
These indicators will shape expectations for Brazil’s monetary policy, economic growth, and global demand dynamics.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 18, 2025
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+0.76%
185,231.44
+0.76%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,061.81
+0.05%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,231.44 | +0.76% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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