Brazil’s Consumer Confidence Plunges to Two-Year Low Amid Inflation Pressures

Brazil’s consumer confidence fell below the neutral threshold for the first time under President Lula’s administration, dropping to 48.9 points in February 2025, according to an Ipsos survey.

This marked a 2.2-point decline from January and a 9.1-point annual drop—the second-largest among 29 surveyed economies. The FGV-IBRE Consumer Confidence Index also hit 83.6 in February, its lowest level since August 2022, driven by rising inflation (4.83% in 2024) and elevated interest rates that squeezed household budgets.

Persistent price pressures on essentials like groceries and housing disproportionately affected low- and middle-income groups, particularly younger generations unaccustomed to inflationary strains.

Meanwhile, high-income consumers remained more resilient, with only 8% citing inflation as a primary concern. Older cohorts saw rising optimism but reduced spending, reflecting broader economic uncertainty.

Globally, sentiment diverged sharply. Mexico’s index surged 4.4 points in February, fueled by nearshoring-driven industrial growth and strong labor markets, while Argentina maintained cautious optimism at 52 points despite political shifts.

The U.S. saw modest gains (+0.9 points) amid slowing inflation, though consumer caution lingered. Brazil’s central bank faces a delicate balancing act, aiming for a 3% inflation target in 2025 while managing high borrowing costs that threaten growth.

The government has proposed interventions to stabilize food prices, but consumer expectations for financial stability remain bleak. With GDP growth projected to slow to 1.6% this year, the interplay of macroeconomic stability and micro-level pressures highlights Brazil’s unique challenges in restoring confidence.

The decline underscores how structural factors like inflation and interest rates disproportionately impact vulnerable demographics, even as broader economic indicators suggest resilience.

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