Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 19, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are poised for a dynamic trading session today, influenced by a modest domestic economic calendar and a flurry of international events that could steer global sentiment and, consequently, Brazil’s markets.
Today’s economic agenda in Brazil features the release of the Foreign Exchange Flow data at 2:30 PM, a critical indicator of capital inflows and outflows that reflects investor confidence in the Brazilian real and the broader economy.
This release is particularly significant given the recent volatility in the USD/BRL exchange rate and the Central Bank’s $3 billion dollar repurchase auction, which has driven the dollar to its lowest level in 2025. Understanding these flows will help markets gauge the sustainability of the real’s recent strength amid global uncertainties.
This focus on domestic currency dynamics comes as Brazil digests yesterday’s mixed market performance, with the Ibovespa showing resilience despite a slight dip and the U.S. dollar hitting a three-month low against the real. Globally, a packed slate of economic events adds complexity.
In the U.S., key housing data (Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30 AM), the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast at 10:30 AM, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM and 4:00 PM matter because they could signal the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates, influencing the U.S. dollar and, by extension, emerging market currencies like the real.
The 20-Year Bond Auction at 1:00 PM and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock at 4:30 PM further underscore U.S. economic health and oil market trends, critical for Brazil’s commodity-driven economy.
In Europe, the European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting at 3:00 AM, the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 4:00 AM, and Germany’s 10-Year Bund Auction at 5:30 AM could sway risk appetite and commodity prices, given Brazil’s trade ties.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Australia’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 7:30 PM, New Zealand’s RBNZ Press Conference at 11:00 AM and Governor Orr’s speech at 2:10 PM, and China’s PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM are pivotal.
These events could affect global commodity demand and investor sentiment toward emerging markets, amplifying their relevance for Brazil.
Economic Agenda for February 19, 2025
Brazil
- 02:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flow
The Americas
- 08:30 AM – Building Permits (Jan), United States
- 08:30 AM – Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan), United States
- 08:30 AM – Housing Starts (Jan), United States
- 10:30 AM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1), United States
- 01:00 PM – 20-Year Bond Auction, United States
- 02:00 PM – FOMC Meeting Minutes, United States
- 04:00 PM – FOMC Meeting Minutes, United States
- 04:30 PM – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, United States
Europe
- 03:00 AM – European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting, Eurozone
- 04:00 AM – Consumer Price Index (CPI), United Kingdom
- 05:30 AM – German 10-Year Bund Auction, Germany
Rest of the World
- 11:00 AM – RBNZ Press Conference, New Zealand
- 02:10 PM – RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks, New Zealand
- 07:30 PM – Employment Change (Jan), Australia
- 07:30 PM – Full Employment Change (Jan), Australia
- 07:30 PM – Unemployment Rate (Jan), Australia
- 08:00 PM – PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Feb), China
- 08:15 PM – PBoC Loan Prime Rate, China
Brazil’s Markets on Tuesday
Brazil’s financial markets experienced a turbulent day on February 18, 2025, reflecting a complex interplay of domestic and global factors. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, closed slightly lower by 0.02% at 128,531 points after an initial surge of nearly 3%.
This spike followed news that President Lula da Silva’s approval rating had dropped to its lowest level across all his terms, at 24%, which markets interpreted as reducing his reelection chances in 2026.
Political developments added to market volatility, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas hinting at a potential presidential bid, boosting investor confidence further.
Meanwhile, international attention focused on Federal Reserve interest rate strategies and geopolitical concerns like the Ukraine war’s potential resolution. Stock performance on the Ibovespa was uneven.
Currency Market
The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in three months against the Brazilian real, closing at R$5.6887—a 0.42% drop from the previous session. The currency has fallen 7.93% year-to-date, reflecting shifting investor sentiment and a $3 billion intervention by Brazil’s Central Bank through a dollar repurchase auction.
U.S. Markets on Tuesday
Wall Street fluttered to a record after U.S. stock indexes drifted through a mixed day of trading. The S&P 500 edged up by 0.2% to 6,129.58, finishing just above its all-time closing high set last month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.26 points, or less than 0.1%, to 44,556.34, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1% to 20,041.26. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 0.5% to 2,290.35.
Entergy jumped after reporting stronger-than-expected profits, offsetting a drop in Meta Platforms’ stock. Treasury yields rose in the bond market.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Brent Crude futures jumped $0.85 on February 18, closing at $77.20 per barrel with a 1.1% gain. Overnight, prices nudged up to $77.45 by 8:00 AM CET, showing resilience.
Gold Prices
Global trading platforms deliver crisp updates this morning, February 19, 2025, spotlighting gold’s strength. Spot prices hold firm at $2,825 per ounce as of 08:29 AM CET, reflecting a calculated rise.
Crypto Prices
Cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance, with Bitcoin standing firm while altcoins stumbled, reflecting market-specific volatility as of February 19, 2025.
Companies and Markets
Brazil’s construction sector forecasts 2.8% growth in 2025 despite economic pressures, signaling resilience. Read more…
Banco BMG achieved a 115% profit surge in 2024 through restructuring. Read more…
Eneva scales up LNG production, solidifying leadership in Brazil’s off-grid energy market. Read more…
BB Seguridade reported R$10.18 billion in revenue and a 70% ROE in 2024, underscoring financial strength. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s market trajectory will depend heavily on global cues, particularly U.S. housing data, FOMC Minutes, and commodity-related releases, given Brazil’s light domestic calendar beyond Foreign Exchange Flow.
The Ibovespa’s ability to hold above 128,000 points despite yesterday’s late dip suggests underlying strength, but external volatility from Fed signals or geopolitical shifts could challenge this resilience. Political developments, including Lula’s waning approval and Tarcísio’s potential candidacy, alongside commodity trends and corporate earnings, will continue to shape Brazil’s financial landscape.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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