Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 18, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for an intriguing trading session today, shaped by a relatively light domestic economic calendar and a mix of international events that could influence global sentiment and, by extension, Brazil’s markets.
Today’s economic agenda in Brazil features no major data releases, placing greater emphasis on global developments and their potential ripple effects. The absence of local indicators shifts focus to external factors, including U.S. monetary policy signals and economic data from key trading partners.
This comes at a critical juncture for Brazil, as markets digest yesterday’s gains in the Ibovespa and monitor currency fluctuations amid ongoing domestic political and fiscal dynamics.
Globally, the U.S. reopens after the Presidents Day holiday, with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and speeches from Federal Reserve members Daly and Barr on the docket. These events matter because they could hint at the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, impacting the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the Brazilian real.
In Canada, inflation data (Core CPI and CPI) will provide insights into North American economic trends, potentially affecting commodity prices—a key driver for Brazil. In the UK, labor market data, including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings Index, could influence the pound and broader market risk appetite.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s Trade Balance data may offer a glimpse into regional economic health, relevant for Brazil given their trade ties. These international events are significant as they could sway currency valuations, commodity markets, and investor confidence in emerging markets like Brazil.
Economic Agenda for February 18, 2025
Brazil
- No data
Argentina
- 04:00 PM – Trade Balance
Canada
- 08:30 AM – Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
Act: — Cons: — Prev: 1.8% - 08:30 AM – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
Act: — Cons: — Prev: -0.3% - 08:30 AM – CPI (MoM) (Jan)
Act: — Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.4%
United States
- 08:30 AM – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)
Act: — Cons: -1.90 Prev: -12.60 - 10:20 AM – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 01:00 PM – Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Tentative – U.S. President Trump Speaks - 04:00 PM – TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Dec)
Act: — Cons: 149.1B Prev: 79.0B
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec)
Act: 6.0% Cons: 5.9% Prev: 5.5% - 02:00 AM – Claimant Count Change (Jan)
Act: 22.0K Cons: 10.0K Prev: -15.1K - 02:00 AM – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Dec)
Act: 107K Cons: — Prev: 35K - 02:00 AM – Unemployment Rate (Dec)
Act: 4.4% Cons: 4.5% Prev: 4.4%
Brazil’s Markets on Monday
The São Paulo Stock Exchange closed Monday with its benchmark index, the Ibovespa, rising 0.26%, reaching 128,549.92 points—the highest level since December 11, 2022, when it ended at 129,593.31 points.
This uptick added 331.33 points to the index, driven by robust gains in banking, retail, and Petrobras stocks. The U.S. market holiday contributed to a calmer trading environment, allowing domestic factors to take center stage.
Investment analyst Leonardo Santana from Top Gain pointed to political developments as a key driver, noting that President Lula’s approval rating dropping to 24% has bolstered market optimism by lowering his perceived reelection odds for 2026. Additionally, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s hints at a presidential run further fueled investor confidence.
Currency Market
The commercial dollar edged up 0.29% on Monday, closing at R$5.712, rebounding slightly after Friday’s sharp decline. This movement occurred against the backdrop of a U.S. holiday and lingering domestic political uncertainty, which continue to influence currency dynamics. Future interest rates (DIs) fell across the curve, signaling shifting market expectations.
U.S. Markets on Monday
U.S. stock markets, including the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange, were closed on Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day. The U.S. bond markets, as confirmed by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, also remained shut. Trading resumes today, February 18, with attention turning to upcoming economic data and Fed speeches.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices rose on Monday amid a pipeline attack and ceasefire speculations, reflecting geopolitical tensions that could support Brazil’s oil sector, particularly Petrobras.
Gold Prices
Gold prices continued a quiet climb, with market movements on February 18 decoding a cautious but steady trend, potentially signaling safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties.
Crypto Prices
Cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance on February 18, with Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing highs and lows driven by market-specific factors, though broader volatility persists.
Companies and Markets
Brazil’s economy grew 3.5% in 2024, but challenges loom ahead, shaping corporate strategies. Read more…
Banco Pan, Movida, and Azzas 2154 underwent leadership shake-ups, restructuring executive teams to navigate market shifts. Read more…
Raízen posted a R$2.57 billion loss, grappling with operational and financial pressures. Read more…
Azevedo & Travassos Energia surged 118% on its B3 debut, targeting growth in the oil sector. Read more…
Brazil’s fiscal outlook remains a concern as government spending decreased in 2024, yet public accounts stayed in deficit and gross debt climbed. Read more…
Shein, the Chinese fast-fashion leader, is doubling down on its expansion in Brazil, aiming to reshape the local retail market. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s market trajectory will hinge on global cues, particularly U.S. economic data and Fed commentary, given the lack of domestic releases. The Ibovespa’s recent strength, underpinned by banking, retail, and Petrobras gains, suggests resilience, but external volatility could temper optimism.
Political developments, including Lula’s waning approval and Tarcísio’s potential candidacy, will continue to shape sentiment, while commodity price movements and corporate performance add layers of complexity to Brazil’s financial landscape.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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