Wall Street Rallies 1.3% as US Yields Hover at 5% | Global Economy, Nov 12
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
Key Facts
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, prices a quarter-point (25-basis-point) Fed rate increase on 8–9 December at 85.5% (11:19 pm ET, 11 November).
- US stocks rallied on Wednesday: the S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.60%.
- Gold fell 1.49% to US$3,979 an ounce as the dollar index rose 0.79% to 103.041.
- US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment, and core prices rose 0.3%.
- Brazil’s Selic rate, the benchmark interest rate, stands at 13.75%; October inflation is due Thursday.
The Big Three
- Wall Street rallies while yields stay near 5% The S&P 500 closed at 7,619, up 1.31%, while the US 10-year yield was last quoted near 5%. Equities are rewarding growth even as borrowing costs stay high.
- A firmer dollar squeezes gold and emerging markets The dollar index rose 0.79% to 103.041 and gold fell 1.49% to $3,979/oz. A stronger dollar is a headwind for the real and for Latin American assets.
- Brazil’s IPCA inflation lands today The 12-month rate is forecast at 4.74%, up from 4.58% and above the 4.5% ceiling. With Copom on hold at 13.75%, the print shapes December rate hopes.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index (Fri, m/m) | Est 0.4% | 1.3% | Cooling expected |
| Core PPI (Fri, m/m) | Est 0.3% | 0.7% | Key for Fed |
| Budget balance (Thu) | Est -298 | -27 | Deficit widens |
| 30-year bond auction (Thu, yield) | Due 18:00 | 5.618% | Demand test |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany CPI (Oct, y/y) | 2.8% | 3.3% | In line, cooling |
| Germany CPI (Oct, m/m) | -0.2% | 0.6% | In line |
| Germany harmonised CPI (Oct, y/y) | 2.8% | 3.3% | In line |
| Germany wholesale prices (Fri, y/y) | Est 9.1% | 8.7% | Pipeline pressure |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China vehicle sales (Oct, y/y) | -9.2% | -8.4% | Missed (est -6.7%) |
| Japan machine tool orders (Oct, y/y) | 42.5% | 60.4% | Missed (est 54.5%) |
| Brazil IPCA (Thu, y/y) | Est 4.74% | 4.58% | Above 4.5% ceiling |
| Argentina inflation (Thu, m/m) | Est 1.8% | 1.9% | Slow easing |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,619 | +1.31% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 172,060 | +0.42% |
| USD/BRL | 5.5827 | -0.01% |
Source: market close, 11 November 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Thursday, November 12, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | PE | Balance of Trade | 4480 | 4714 |
| 03:35 | JP | 5-Year JGB Auction | — | 2.379 |
| 11:00 | DE | Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | — | 42.37 |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate | 0.26 | 0.82 |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate | 4.74 | 4.58 |
| 12:00 | BR | Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA | — | 0.88 |
| 13:30 | DE | Current Account | 15.5 | 10.3 |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 192.5 | 194.75 |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1720 | 1718 |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 195 | 189 |
| 14:00 | US | Fed Hammack Speech | — | — |
| 15:00 | CO | Consumer Confidence | 15.8 | 15.7 |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.99 |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| 15:00 | US | Fed Barr Speech | — | — |
| 16:30 | US | 17-Week Bill Auction | — | 4.09 |
| 16:30 | US | Fed Goolsbee Speech | — | — |
| 16:30 | US | 8-Week Bill Auction | — | 3.975 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,619 | +1.31% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 28,374 | +2.28% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 52,486 | +0.49% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,846 | +0.88% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.9980 | +0.30% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 17.49 | -10.12% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,663 | +1.20% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,835 | +0.78% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,333 | +0.66% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 663.05 | +0.72% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 61,241 | -0.01% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 24,094 | -0.91% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,362 | -0.24% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,080 | +0.11% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 25,348 | +0.37% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,412 | +0.67% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 3,987 | -0.34% | -3.14% | 4,001 | 4,006 | 3,974 | 25,119 |
| SILVER | 51.54 | -0.66% | +1.82% | 51.88 | 51.95 | 51.16 | 6,993 |
01 Stocks surge while yields stay near 5%
Wall Street rallied hard, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,619, up 1.31% on the day. The Nasdaq Composite led at 25,466, up 1.60%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.49% to 52,486.
The mood was relief rather than euphoria. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, fell 10.12% to 17.49, which means traders are paying less for protection.
Yet the bond market sat out the rally: US bond markets were closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day, and the 10-year Treasury yield was last quoted near 5%. The dollar index rose 0.79% to 103.041.
Gold felt the squeeze, falling 1.49% to $3,979/oz. The metal pays no interest, so a 5% Treasury is tough competition.
02 Inflation keeps December in play
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US statistics agency, reported on 10 November that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment, with core inflation, which excludes food and energy, up 0.3%. It published no 12-month rate for October because no price data were collected in October 2025; in September the annual rate was 3.7%.
With the 10-year yield at 5%, investors are watching closely whether the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, signals more tightening in December.
Three Fed speakers test the mood today: Daly at 18:10, Schmid at 18:30 and Williams at 23:30, all Lisbon time. The 30-year bond auction at 18:00, with a prior yield of 5.618%, will show whether buyers demand even more.
Friday brings producer prices, forecast at 0.4% on the month after 1.3%. Core PPI is forecast at 0.3% after 0.7%, with Fed speeches from Collins and Bowman to follow.
03 Brazil waits on inflation as the dollar firms
Germany’s October inflation came in at 2.8% a year, exactly as forecast and down from 3.3%. Prices fell 0.2% on the month, so Europe’s largest economy is cooling without surprises.
China looks softer. Vehicle sales fell 9.2% year on year, worse than the 6.7% drop forecast, and Japan’s machine tool orders rose 42.5%, short of the 54.5% expected.
For Brazil, the message is awkward. Copom held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November in a unanimous vote, ending five quarter-point cuts, as set out in the Banco Central do Brasil statement (https://www.bcb.gov.br).
Today’s IPCA is the test. The 12-month rate is forecast at 4.74%, up from 4.58% and above the 4.5% ceiling, and a stronger dollar plus a 5% US yield make cuts harder to justify.
For investors holding Brazilian assets, a dollar index above 103 and a Treasury yield near 5% raise the odds of a weaker real, while a soft IPCA reading would be the clearest sign that rate cuts could resume. Argentina publishes October inflation today, forecast at 1.8% on the month and 32.7% on the year.
Peru decides on rates tonight with the prior at 4.25%. UK industrial production is forecast at 3.0% (previous 1.6%) and the UK GDP 3-month avg (a three-month average) at 0.7% (previous 0.7%), both at 07:00 Lisbon time.
Mexico’s industrial production, listed for Wednesday, had a forecast of 3.5% (previous 3.5%) and no reported figure yet. In the United States, the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, reports crude oil stocks and Cushing crude oil stocks at 17:00 Lisbon time (previous changes of -0.865 million and +0.28 million barrels).
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the December Fed decision, with about US$26.3 million traded, prices a 25-basis-point increase at 85.5%, a move of 50 basis points or more at 9.8% and no change at 3.6%. Prices are bets, not polls; stand 11:19 pm ET on 11 November 2026.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: UK GDP growth at 07:00 Lisbon time, forecast at 1.9% against 1.4% before, with the three-month average forecast at 0.7% (previous 0.7%) and the goods trade deficit forecast at £19.2 billion (about US$25.5 billion at 1.328 per pound) against £18.01 billion (about US$23.9 billion); Brazil IPCA at 12:00 Lisbon time, Argentine inflation at 19:00, the US 30-year auction at 18:00, Fed speakers Daly, Schmid and Williams, and Peru’s rate decision.
- Friday: US producer prices and core PPI at 13:30, Fed’s Collins at 14:10 and Bowman at 15:50, plus China credit data at 09:00 and German wholesale prices at 07:00.
- Next week: Whether the US 10-year yield holds at 5% and whether the dollar keeps climbing, which sets the tone for the real and for Brazil’s December Copom decision.
- Ongoing: Brazil’s Selic path at 13.75%, Fed December expectations and the fiscal outlook after Lula’s re-election.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are US stocks rising while yields stay high?
Investors are focused on growth and the VIX fell 10.12% to 17.49. The 10-year yield at 5% is a warning that borrowing costs may weigh later.
Why did gold fall?
Gold dropped 1.49% to $3,979/oz as the dollar index rose to 103.041 and Treasury yields stayed near 5%. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields make it less attractive.
What does this mean for the Brazilian real?
A firmer dollar and a 5% US yield pull money towards US assets. That makes it harder for Brazil to cut the Selic from 13.75%.
What is Brazil’s IPCA and why does it matter today?
The IPCA is Brazil’s official consumer price index. The 12-month rate is forecast at 4.74%, above the 4.5% ceiling, which shapes December rate expectations.
What are the key US data releases this week?
Producer prices and core PPI are due Friday, alongside speeches by Fed officials Collins and Bowman. Daly, Schmid and Williams speak today.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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