Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 18, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid ongoing political tensions. The Senate approved measures to cut federal tax breaks by 10% while raising levies on online betting operators to 15% by 2028 and progressively increasing CSLL rates on fintechs.
At the same time, lawmakers advanced a controversial bill to soften sentences for January 8, 2023 riot convicts. The move is likely to trigger a presidential veto and heighten institutional friction.
These fiscal and political developments underscore persistent risk premiums, even as global central bank decisions dominate the agenda.
Economic Agenda for December 18, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- 12:00 PM BRT – BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
Mexico
- 12:00 PM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 3.0%
- 12:00 PM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.3%
- 19:00 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Cons: 7.00%
Implication: Retail sales gauge consumer strength ahead of Banxico’s expected 25bp cut to 7.00%, with guidance critical for peso and rate path amid contained inflation.
United Kingdom (3 key events)
- 12:00 PM BRT – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Cons: 3.75%
- 12:00 PM BRT – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes and votes
- 12:30 PM BRT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Implication: Anticipated cut and dovish signals could weaken GBP further, supporting carry flows into high-yield EM currencies like BRL.
Eurozone (3 key events)
- 13:15 PM BRT – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Cons: 2.15% (Deposit Facility Cons: 2.00%)
- 13:15 PM BRT – ECB Monetary Policy Statement
- 13:45 PM BRT – ECB Press Conference
Implication: Expected hold with potential dovish tilt reinforces disinflation, mild EUR pressure beneficial for EM risk assets.
United States (3 key events)
- 13:30 PM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3%; CPI (YoY) Cons: 3.1%; Core CPI (MoM) Cons: 0.3%
- 13:30 PM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 224K
- 15:30 PM BRT – Natural Gas Storage Cons: -176B
Implication: CPI print shapes Fed trajectory and dollar strength—hotter data could firm USD and pressure BRL year-end flows; claims monitor labor resilience; gas drawdowns influence energy pricing.
Why These Events Matter: Today’s heavy calendar features pivotal central bank decisions from BoE, ECB, and Banxico, plus U.S. CPI that could recalibrate dollar dynamics and rate expectations globally.
Softer outcomes support risk assets and EM carry like BRL, while hotter U.S. inflation risks firmer USD amid year-end positioning. Brazilian council meeting adds local tone without expected surprises.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.79% to 157,327.26 points, after trading between 156,350.81 and 158,610.62. It is still up more than 30% in 2025 and briefly cleared 165,000 earlier this month.
Derivatives expiry amplified the move. Turnover was cited around R$29.4 billion ($5.4 billion), while other tallies put it nearer R$33.1 billion ($6.1 billion). The dollar extended a fourth straight rise and the local curve opened sharply.
Politics sharpened the repricing. A report said PP leader Ciro Nogueira told market contacts that São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas would seek re-election, leaving Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as a contender for the presidency.
Flávio later travelled to São Paulo for more meetings with Faria Lima investors. Top winners: Brava Energia (+3.69%), Suzano (+1.78%), PetroReconcavo (+1.54%).
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed sharply lower on Wednesday, December 17, 2025. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 6,721.43, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5% to 47,885.97, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.8% to 22,693.32.
AI stocks led the decline, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle all falling sharply as investors questioned the sustainability of AI investments and high valuations. Energy stocks rose after President Trump ordered a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, lifting oil prices.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s peso hovered just under 18 against the USD (USD/MXN near 17.99), with focus shifting to Banxico’s potential 25-basis-point rate cut to 7.00%. The S&P/BMV IPC fell 1.11% to 62,528, retreating from records amid de-risking.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso showed stability with reference USD/ARS near 1,450. The S&P Merval edged up 0.04% to 3,035,517 in pesos but fell 0.7% in dollars.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s peso weakened with USDCOP near 3,853.7. The COLCAP index fell 0.91% to 2,053.3, hit hardest by financial stocks after Fitch’s sovereign downgrade to BB citing fiscal deficits.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s IPSA index fell 0.53% to 10,134.52 on profit-taking. The Chilean peso held near 917–918 USD/CLP amid firm dollar.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened further, with spot USD/BRL rising 1.07% to 5.5223 amid resurfaced 2026 election talks involving Flávio Bolsonaro and fiscal concerns.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin slid to around $86,700, down 0.33% after rejection at $90,000 amid thinning liquidity and year-end caution.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
- Senate advanced fiscal package cutting tax incentives 10% and raising taxes on betting/fintechs to close 2026 budget gap.
- Orizon agrees to incorporate Vital in R$3 billion deal.
- Government signals concession-lapse process for Enel São Paulo.
- Alpargatas posts record efficiency in turnaround; BTG upgrades Mater Dei to buy.
- TIM approves R$2.21 billion in returns; Movida declares R$255 million JCP; CSU Digital announces R$76 million payout; Allos declares R$438 million dividends.
- Petrobras dominated 2025 dividend rankings amid high yields but price declines.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.56% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.67% | -8.54% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.15% | -11.26% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.79 | +7.14% | +47.12% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 45,401 |
| WTI | 92.29 | +6.29% | +41.44% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 357,895 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,049 | -2.37% | +19.28% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 149,355 |
| SILVER | 57.82 | -3.66% | +47.21% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 32,994 |
| LITHIUM | 68.84 | -0.23% | +58.36% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 103,033 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.20 | +1.46% | +35.10% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,073,500 |
| VALE3 | 75.62 | +0.69% | +31.66% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 12,807,300 |
| SUZB3 | 42.38 | -0.66% | -18.09% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,621,000 |
| KLABIN | 17.63 | -1.67% | -4.78% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 2,833,200 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.25% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.75 | 1,693,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.86 | -1.67% | +16.70% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,185,600 |
| ITUB4 | 42.41 | -1.14% | +23.43% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 16,804,300 |
| BBDC4 | 18.75 | -1.16% | +18.07% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 12,836,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.90 | -0.90% | +3.41% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,463,500 |
| B3SA3 | 15.61 | -1.82% | +16.73% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 27,214,800 |
| WEGE3 | 45.15 | -3.40% | +18.84% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,224,200 |
| PRIO3 | 61.09 | +2.21% | +43.84% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,460,000 |
| RENT3 | 36.95 | -0.51% | +2.10% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,396,300 |
| AZZA3 | 17.07 | -4.16% | -53.99% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.07 | 1,767,300 |
| CSNA3 | 5.32 | -1.12% | -39.34% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 9,739,300 |
| GGBR4 | 24.18 | +0.50% | +40.36% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,398,500 |
| ENEV3 | 25.59 | -1.46% | +83.35% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,003,300 |
| LREN3 | 13.32 | -1.62% | -24.45% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,009,100 |