Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 16, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today with attention turning to the release of Copom meeting minutes, which could clarify the path for Selic rates amid recent data softening and revived easing bets.
U.S. public financing is increasingly targeting Brazil’s rare earth sector even absent a bilateral deal, with the DFC committing up to $465 million to Serra Verde’s expansion and $5 million to Aclara’s project in Goiás, highlighting efforts to diversify supply chains away from China.
Cemig’s approval of a massive R$44 billion grid upgrade plan supports industrial reliability in Minas Gerais, while Brazil prepares for its first orbital commercial launch from Alcântara this week, potentially unlocking new business at the equatorial site.
The B3 holiday shutdown around year-end exposes underestimated liquidity risks for investors, and the dosimetry bill advances to Senate debate amid shrinking protests.
A weaker-than-expected IBC-Br print yesterday revived Selic-cut trades, lifting the Ibovespa above 162,000 despite softer commodities and year-end dollar pressures holding USD/BRL near 5.41.
Economic Agenda for December 16, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- 11:00 AM BRT – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Implication: The minutes will provide insight into Copom’s thinking on the Selic trajectory after recent data like the IBC-Br miss (-0.20% vs +0.10% expected) strengthened bets for a 25bp cut in January 2026, potentially easing pressure on borrowers while underscoring fiscal needs amid debt dynamics and commodity softness.
Mexico
- No key releases scheduled.
Chile
- 21:00 PM BRT – Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Cons: 4.50% Prev: 4.75%
Implication: A widely expected 25bp cut would continue the easing cycle amid cooling inflation and growth support needs, potentially softening CLP mildly and aiding copper-related flows into regional assets, though post-B3 close timing limits direct intraday impact on Brazilian markets.
United States
- 13:30 PM BRT – Multiple labor and retail indicators (including revised Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales MoM)
- 14:45 PM BRT – Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI (Dec)
Implication: Revised jobs data and retail sales gauge consumer resilience ahead of Fed decisions, with PMI flashes testing manufacturing momentum; softer prints could weaken the dollar further, supporting BRL carry amid year-end flows.
United Kingdom
- 07:00 AM BRT – Average Earnings ex Bonus (Oct), Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct), Claimant Count Change (Nov), Employment Change 3M/3M (Oct), Unemployment Rate (Oct)
Implication: Sticky wage growth or rising unemployment could influence BoE rate path, impacting GBP and global carry trades favoring high-yield assets like BRL.
Why These Events Matter: Today’s spotlight is the 11:00 AM Copom minutes, critical for calibrating Selic expectations after October’s IBC-Br contraction fueled easing speculation despite persistent external risks and commodity headwinds.
This could temper or extend yesterday’s Ibovespa rally if it signals flexibility on the current stance. Chile’s evening rate decision adds LatAm policy focus, with a likely cut reinforcing regional easing bias tied to copper dynamics.
U.S. labor revisions and retail data test dollar tone amid delayed reports, potentially aiding LatAm currencies; U.K. labor figures add to global rate signals.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
A weaker IBC-Br print pushed local rates down and lifted the bank-heavy Ibovespa 1.07% to 162,481.74.
Rede D’Or’s large payout and bank strength drove gains; Braskem sank on ownership headlines.
Winners: Rede D’Or (+4.71%), ISA CTEEP (+4.49%), Hapvida (+4.01%), Santander Units (+3.10%), CPFL Energia (+2.93%).
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed mixed on December 15, 2025, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.2% to 6,816.51, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edging down 0.1% to 48,416.56, and the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.6% to 23,057.41.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s peso held firm against a sagging dollar, trading stably around recent levels amid reduced global risk appetite.
The S&P/BMV IPC index cooled slightly after touching record highs in prior sessions, with investors taking profits on industrial and consumer names. Overall, nearshoring optimism continued to underpin sentiment despite softer U.S. cues.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s central bank reinforced its commitment by tying the peso crawling peg band more closely to inflation targets, supporting ongoing reserve accumulation efforts.
The Merval index showed resilience with modest gains in select blue-chips, reflecting improved macro stability signals. Traders remained focused on fiscal progress amid year-end positioning.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s peso steadied after facing a late-session dollar push that trimmed earlier gains. The COLCAP index eased moderately, cooling from its strong year-to-date rally as profit-taking emerged in energy and financial sectors. Regional commodity flows provided a supportive floor despite broader LatAm caution.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s markets cooled noticeably following José Antonio Kast’s election victory, with traders locking in substantial gains after the IPSA briefly surpassed 10,500 points.
The index retreated around 0.9% to close near 10,302 points amid post-election consolidation. The peso traded range-bound as copper prices softened, capping upside momentum.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Dollar-Real holds near 5.41 as year-end outflows set the tone. USD/BRL traded around R$5.4148, with consolidation support at 5.38–5.39 and resistance at 5.43–5.44.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin crashes below $86,000 as liquidations, ETF outflows, and whale selling deepen pressure.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
U.S. financing targets Brazil’s rare earths even without a bilateral deal, with DFC backing Serra Verde (up to $465M) and Aclara ($5M) projects in Goiás.
B3’s holiday shutdown exposes a year-end risk many investors still underestimate, with closures on Dec 24-25 and Dec 31-Jan 1 halting trading and clearing.
Brazil’s industrial heartland gets a grid upgrade push under Cemig’s R$44 billion ($8.1B) plan for 2026-2030.
Brazil’s first orbital commercial launch could turn Alcântara into a real space business, with Innospace’s HANBIT-Nano targeted for Dec 17.
Dosimetry bill reaches Brazil’s Senate as street protests shrink.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.76%
185,231.44
+0.76%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,061.81
+0.05%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,231.44 | +0.76% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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