Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 19, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid intensifying political maneuvering ahead of 2026 elections. Congress ousted two key Bolsonaro allies—Eduardo Bolsonaro and Alexandre Ramagem—from the Chamber of Deputies.
The move highlights a hardening institutional power struggle using procedural and judicial mechanisms. Polling shows a deeply polarized electorate on a knife-edge, with Lula’s approval fragile and early pre-campaign mode dominating fiscal and policy choices.
Lula issued a firm deadline for the stalled EU-Mercosur trade deal, now delayed to January due to European hesitation, while signaling a pragmatic thaw in U.S. ties by calling Trump “my friend” after a constructive call easing tariffs and sanctions.
These developments mix domestic political risk with potential trade upside, as global data flows—led by U.S. PCE inflation—shape sentiment. Senate-backed fiscal measures, including a 10% cut in tax breaks and higher levies on betting and fintechs, continue to frame budget efforts.
Economic Agenda for December 19, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- 11:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Nov)
- 11:30 AM BRT – Foreign Direct Investment (USD) (Nov)
Mexico
- 12:00 PM BRT – Aggregate Demand (YoY) (Q3)
- 12:00 PM BRT – Aggregate Demand (QoQ) (Q3)
- 12:00 PM BRT – Private Spending (YoY) (Q3)
- 12:00 PM BRT – Private Spending (QoQ) (Q3)
United Kingdom
- 12:01 AM BRT – GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)
- 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
- 7:00 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
- 7:00 AM BRT – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Nov)
Eurozone
- 7:00 AM BRT – German PPI (MoM) (Nov)
- 7:00 AM BRT – GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan)
- 3:00 PM BRT – Consumer Confidence (Dec)
Japan
- 2:30 AM BRT – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- 3:00 AM BRT – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- 6:30 AM BRT – BoJ Press Conference
United States
- 1:30 PM BRT – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
- 1:30 PM BRT – Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)
- 3:00 PM BRT – Existing Home Sales (Nov)
Canada
- 1:30 PM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 1:30 PM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Argentina
- 5:06 PM BRT – Budget Balance (Nov)
- 7:00 PM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
Colombia
- 6:00 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
Implication: U.S. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, influencing rate path expectations and dollar strength—steady or softer prints support risk assets and EM carry like BRL; Brazilian external accounts track balances and inflows amid fiscal and election pricing; scattered consumer/producer data elsewhere add to global disinflation tone.
Why These Events Matter: Today’s calendar centers on U.S. PCE and spending as key for Fed easing calibration and USD dynamics, with softer outcomes potentially capping dollar strength and supporting high-yield EM flows like BRL.
Brazilian balance-of-payments data offer local insight amid political noise, while BoJ decision and scattered European metrics reinforce global rate divergence.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa rose 0.38% to 157,923 points on revived global risk appetite from softer U.S. inflation signals. Turnover was solid, with political speculation on market-friendly 2026 candidates providing local support despite fragile Lula approval.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. indexes closed higher on cooler inflation reviving rate-cut bets, with the S&P 500 up ~0.8%, Nasdaq leading gains ~1.4%, and Dow adding ~0.7-1%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico markets held the 18 handle after Banxico cut, with peso around 18.03 and stocks advancing.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Peso calm, banks rally in Argentina’s morning credibility trade; S&P Merval advanced strongly.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s peso holds near 3855 as markets weigh politics, carry and credibility; COLCAP edged higher.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s peso holds firm as stocks stabilize after a volatile global rates jolt; IPSA rose modestly.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Dollar holds near R$5.52 as Brazil rates and 2026 politics keep traders cautious, though softer U.S. data capped gains.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s overnight rebound shows a market trading policy risk, not hype; prices toward $87,000-$88,000 zone.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
Year-end dividend/JCP wave: Pague Menos, Cemig, Guararapes, Vulcabras, and BB Seguridade announced major payouts totaling billions in dividends and interest on capital.
Brava Energia detailed $550 million 2026 capex focused on production growth.
Senate fiscal measures and congressional ousting of Bolsonaro allies continued to frame institutional tensions.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.91%
185,500.88
-0.91%
64,216.98
+0.46%
11,342.39
+1.09%
3,084,547
-0.46%
2,588.25
-0.06%
59,184.75
-0.92%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,500.88 | -0.91% | +21.85% | 187,206.89 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |