Brazil’s financial markets open today amid intensifying political maneuvering ahead of 2026 elections. Congress ousted two key Bolsonaro allies—Eduardo Bolsonaro and Alexandre Ramagem—from the Chamber of Deputies.
The move highlights a hardening institutional power struggle using procedural and judicial mechanisms. Polling shows a deeply polarized electorate on a knife-edge, with Lula’s approval fragile and early pre-campaign mode dominating fiscal and policy choices.
Lula issued a firm deadline for the stalled EU-Mercosur trade deal, now delayed to January due to European hesitation, while signaling a pragmatic thaw in U.S. ties by calling Trump “my friend” after a constructive call easing tariffs and sanctions.
These developments mix domestic political risk with potential trade upside, as global data flows—led by U.S. PCE inflation—shape sentiment. Senate-backed fiscal measures, including a 10% cut in tax breaks and higher levies on betting and fintechs, continue to frame budget efforts.
Economic Agenda for December 19, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- 11:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Nov)
- 11:30 AM BRT – Foreign Direct Investment (USD) (Nov)
Mexico
- 12:00 PM BRT – Aggregate Demand (YoY) (Q3)
- 12:00 PM BRT – Aggregate Demand (QoQ) (Q3)
- 12:00 PM BRT – Private Spending (YoY) (Q3)
- 12:00 PM BRT – Private Spending (QoQ) (Q3)
United Kingdom
- 12:01 AM BRT – GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)
- 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
- 7:00 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
- 7:00 AM BRT – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Nov)
Eurozone
- 7:00 AM BRT – German PPI (MoM) (Nov)
- 7:00 AM BRT – GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan)
- 3:00 PM BRT – Consumer Confidence (Dec)
Japan
- 2:30 AM BRT – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- 3:00 AM BRT – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- 6:30 AM BRT – BoJ Press Conference
United States
- 1:30 PM BRT – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
- 1:30 PM BRT – Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)
- 3:00 PM BRT – Existing Home Sales (Nov)
Canada
- 1:30 PM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 1:30 PM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Argentina
- 5:06 PM BRT – Budget Balance (Nov)
- 7:00 PM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
Colombia
- 6:00 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
Implication: U.S. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, influencing rate path expectations and dollar strength—steady or softer prints support risk assets and EM carry like BRL; Brazilian external accounts track balances and inflows amid fiscal and election pricing; scattered consumer/producer data elsewhere add to global disinflation tone.
Why These Events Matter: Today’s calendar centers on U.S. PCE and spending as key for Fed easing calibration and USD dynamics, with softer outcomes potentially capping dollar strength and supporting high-yield EM flows like BRL.
Brazilian balance-of-payments data offer local insight amid political noise, while BoJ decision and scattered European metrics reinforce global rate divergence.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa rose 0.38% to 157,923 points on revived global risk appetite from softer U.S. inflation signals. Turnover was solid, with political speculation on market-friendly 2026 candidates providing local support despite fragile Lula approval.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. indexes closed higher on cooler inflation reviving rate-cut bets, with the S&P 500 up ~0.8%, Nasdaq leading gains ~1.4%, and Dow adding ~0.7-1%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico markets held the 18 handle after Banxico cut, with peso around 18.03 and stocks advancing.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Peso calm, banks rally in Argentina’s morning credibility trade; S&P Merval advanced strongly.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s peso holds near 3855 as markets weigh politics, carry and credibility; COLCAP edged higher.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s peso holds firm as stocks stabilize after a volatile global rates jolt; IPSA rose modestly.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Dollar holds near R$5.52 as Brazil rates and 2026 politics keep traders cautious, though softer U.S. data capped gains.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s overnight rebound shows a market trading policy risk, not hype; prices toward $87,000-$88,000 zone.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
Year-end dividend/JCP wave: Pague Menos, Cemig, Guararapes, Vulcabras, and BB Seguridade announced major payouts totaling billions in dividends and interest on capital.
Brava Energia detailed $550 million 2026 capex focused on production growth.
Senate fiscal measures and congressional ousting of Bolsonaro allies continued to frame institutional tensions.