Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 22, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open Monday amid year-end positioning, with the Ibovespa holding near 158k after a late rebound on Friday driven by easing rates and commodity support.
Embraer subsidiary Eve achieved its first full-scale eVTOL prototype flight, validating key systems and reinforcing progress toward urban air mobility commercialization with global orders.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s external accounts showed a shrinking current account deficit funded solidly by FDI, though persistent service and income outflows highlight who ultimately covers the bill amid rising domestic demand.
Economic Agenda for December 22, 2025
Brazil
- 11:00 AM BRT – FGV Consumer Confidence (Dec) Prev: 89.8
Implication: Stronger confidence supports consumption recovery and cyclicals; weaker prints reinforce caution amid high rates and fiscal questions, favoring defensives.
Mexico
- 12:00 PM BRT – Economic Activity (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 0.70%
- 12:00 PM BRT – Economic Activity (MoM) (Oct) Prev: -0.60%
Implication: Resilient activity backs Banxico’s gradual easing path and peso carry; soft readings amplify slowdown concerns, pressuring MXN and regional risk.
Peru
- (No major releases scheduled)
Colombia
- (No major releases scheduled)
United States
- 15:00 PM BRT – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.2%
- 15:00 PM BRT – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 2.8%
- 15:00 PM BRT – PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.3%
- 15:00 PM BRT – PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 2.8%
- 15:00 PM BRT – Personal Income (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.4%
- 15:00 PM BRT – Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.3%
Implication: Hotter inflation or spending reinforces Fed pause bets, capping EM rallies; softer prints fuel easing expectations, supporting commodities and risk assets.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s consumer confidence offers insight into household momentum amid tight credit and political focus on 2026.
Mexico’s activity data contextualizes post-Banxico cut dynamics. U.S. PCE readings—the Fed’s preferred gauge—set global tone for dollar, yields, and EM flows into year-end thin liquidity.
Brazil’s Markets on Friday
The Ibovespa rebounded late to close up 0.35% at 158,473, trimming a weekly loss to 1.43%, lifted by heavyweights amid interest-rate curve relief, options expiry, commodity gains, and Wall Street strength.
U.S. Markets on Friday
U.S. markets closed higher. S&P 500 +0.9% to 6,835.00, Dow +0.3% to 48,101.00, Nasdaq +1.1% to 23,150.00. AI/tech led amid positive sector news.
Mexico’s Market on Friday
The peso hovered near 18.00 USD/MXN post-Banxico’s cut to 7.00%. IPC at 63,966.98 with Volaris surging on Viva Aerobús tie-up.
Argentina’s Market on Friday
Narrow dollar spreads held, with wholesale near 1,454–1,455 and blue near 1,465–1,485. S&P Merval down ~0.75% to 3,139,466.65 amid January maturity focus.
Colombia’s Market on Friday
Peso surged on ~$6 billion offshore bond inflows. COLCAP slipped 0.30% to 2,048.99 with rotation among leaders.
Chile’s Market on Friday
USD/CLP near 910 with peso firming. S&P IPSA rebounded 1.1% to 10,304.26 on copper and rebalance flows.
Oil
Oil edged higher on tighter Venezuela enforcement and China stockpiling. Brent ~$61/bbl, WTI ~$57/bbl.
Gold
Gold broke above $4,400 on rate-cut bets and thin liquidity. Spot ~$4,414–$4,417/oz.
Silver
Silver hit fresh records near $69/oz amid ETF inflows and supply tightness.
Copper
Copper squeezed higher on supply constraints. LME 3-month ~$11,881/t.
Iron Ore
Iron ore continued quiet grind higher on China restocking signals without full boom.
Brazilian Real
The real opens near 5.53–5.54 USD/BRL after closing 5.5297, pressured by global rates, new taxes, and year-end dollar bids despite BCB intervention.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rebounded near $89,000 amid thin holiday liquidity and ETF outflows.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
• Eve (Embraer) First eVTOL Test Flight: Full-scale prototype completed maiden hover, validating systems; advances certification path with global orders and financing, boosting urban air mobility outlook.
• Brazil External Gap Shrinks: November current account deficit narrowed, fully funded by $9.8B FDI; highlights sturdy investor confidence but persistent service/income drains.
Ibovespa futures point to consolidation near 158,000–159,000, balancing commodity support and politics against fiscal skepticism and thin liquidity unless data surprises.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.56%
184,853.65
+0.56%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,097.87
+0.38%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,853.65 | +0.56% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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