Brazil’s Real Hits 12-Month Low as Dollar Tops 5.64 | Morning Call, Nov 13
Key Facts
- The real is the story into the bell, with the dollar at 5.64 reais at Thursday’s settle, its highest close in at least 12 months and 15.3% above its 11 May low of 4.89
- The central bank held the Selic (Brazil’s benchmark interest rate) at 13.75% a year on 4 November, ending a run of five straight cuts
- October inflation slowed to 0.14% for the month, from 0.82% in September, while the 12-month rate edged up to 4.63%
- Today’s domestic calendar is retail sales and business confidence with September retail sales at 09:00 BRT (consensus 1.0% year on year and −0.2% month on month) and business confidence at 11:00 BRT (consensus 46.5, prior 46.2)
Today’s Focus
Brazil opens today with its currency, not its stock index, doing the talking. The dollar closed Thursday at 5.64 reais, the highest in at least 12 months, and 15.3% above its 11 May low of 4.89.
Behind that sits a cautious central bank and a nervous political mood after the elections. The Copom, the central bank’s rate-setting committee, held the Selic at 13.75% a year on 4 November, ending five straight cuts.
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, is down 18.1% from its 9 October peak and 17.04% lower over 20 sessions. Today’s retail sales and business confidence readings will show whether domestic demand is holding up.
We found no confirmed futures price for the open, so the tone is a judgement: cautious, with Wall Street lower and US Treasury yields high overnight.
What matters today. Watch whether the real holds near 5.64 per dollar while retail sales and the US inflation data decide if Brazilian stocks can steady.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 171,324 | -0.43% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,592 | -0.35% |
| USD/BRL | 5.6413 | +1.05% |
Source: market close, 12 November 2026.
01 The setup in one read
Think of today as a stress test for a market that has already taken a beating. The real is at a 12-month low, the stock index sits far below its October high, and the central bank has given investors little to hold on to.
No pre-market futures price from Brazilian outlets was confirmed this morning, so we do not claim one. What we can say is that the overnight cues from the US lean cautious.
Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, the US dollar index edged up and the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped 13 basis points to 5.13%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, and higher US yields tend to pull money away from emerging markets.
US weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week to 7 November against 195,000 expected, the US Labor Department’s series shows. US commercial crude stocks rose 4.7 million barrels in the week to 6 November, according to the Energy Information Administration, the US energy statistics agency.
The case for a soft start rests on a weak real, a US 10-year yield at 5.13% and a US dollar index that rose again. The case for a bounce is the stock index’s depth below its peak and an October inflation print that cooled to 0.14% for the month.
Our own history says stretched moves do not always continue, but it is no forecast. The variable to watch is the real against 5.64 per dollar after this morning’s retail data.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL (dollar vs real) | 5.6413 | Firm dollar; no live indication found | 5.64, the 12-month high set on 12 November; 4.89 is the May low |
| Ibovespa (Brazil’s main stock index) | 171,324 | Cautious tilt from Wall Street and US yields; no futures print confirmed | The 12-month low of 154,770 and the 9 October high of 209,067 |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.134% | Elevated overnight | A further rise would pressure emerging-market stocks |
| S&P 500 (US benchmark) | 7,592 | Closed lower on Thursday | Sets the global risk mood for the bell |
The table is a curated read, not a price board: the live board below it carries the full set of closes. Where we write ‘no confirmed indication’, that is deliberate, because we would rather leave a gap than invent a futures level.
The real is the cleanest signal. A currency at a 12-month high for the dollar often signals that investors want more protection before holding Brazilian assets.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.43%
171,324.31
-0.43%
71,674.32
-0.46%
10,625.27
+0.69%
2,848,945
—
2,452.93
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,324.31 | -0.43% | +8.69% | 172,060.43 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.64 | +1.07% | +6.63% | 5.58 | 5.65 | 5.64 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.24 | +0.13% | +1.82% | 6.23 | 6.25 | 6.23 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 95.76 | -0.06% | +52.70% | 95.82 | 96.00 | 95.07 | 1,642 |
| WTI | 88.47 | -0.30% | +51.26% | 88.74 | 88.92 | 88.04 | 12,854 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +55.43% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 3,912 | +0.69% | -7.16% | 3,885 | 3,927 | 3,879 | 29,811 |
| SILVER | 50.16 | +0.38% | -5.95% | 49.97 | 50.73 | 49.87 | 7,275 |
| LITHIUM | 59.43 | -2.69% | -6.69% | 61.07 | 60.05 | 59.34 | 169,960 |
| SOY | 1,230 | +0.20% | +9.73% | 1,227 | 1,230 | 1,219 | 9,498 |
| CORN | 446.50 | +0.90% | +2.58% | 442.50 | 447.00 | 441.75 | 9,869 |
| WHEAT | 590.50 | +1.07% | +10.17% | 584.25 | 591.00 | 582.00 | 5,643 |
| COFFEE | 275.10 | +2.27% | -31.85% | 269.00 | 281.80 | 266.70 | — |
| SUGAR | 18.22 | -1.41% | +25.48% | 18.48 | 18.56 | 17.96 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 140.60 | -0.25% | — | 140.95 | 145.00 | 139.80 | — |
| COTTON | 78.56 | +0.05% | +24.11% | 78.52 | 79.90 | 78.63 | 20,814 |
| BEEF | 223.05 | +1.86% | -0.99% | 218.98 | 220.85 | 218.28 | 31,806 |
| CATTLE | 331.80 | -0.25% | -2.13% | 332.63 | 337.40 | 332.40 | 9,951 |
| COCOA | 5,187 | +5.71% | -7.79% | 4,907 | 5,270 | 5,008 | — |
| PETR4 | 44.70 | +2.64% | +38.18% | 43.55 | 44.97 | 43.23 | 37,990,800 |
| VALE3 | 63.95 | -0.75% | -2.75% | 64.43 | 64.48 | 62.93 | 16,658,700 |
| SUZB3 | 56.04 | +4.16% | +16.58% | 53.80 | 56.06 | 53.75 | 8,381,600 |
| KLABIN | 17.64 | +1.50% | -2.91% | 17.38 | 17.95 | 17.30 | 5,202,300 |
| SLCE3 | 18.36 | +7.68% | +22.95% | 17.05 | 18.36 | 16.86 | 4,214,600 |
| ABEV3 | 15.75 | -0.63% | +15.64% | 15.85 | 15.92 | 15.62 | 45,131,700 |
| ITUB4 | 41.68 | -0.10% | +6.58% | 41.72 | 41.95 | 41.12 | 22,298,600 |
| BBDC4 | 14.32 | -0.07% | -26.34% | 14.33 | 14.33 | 13.92 | 62,054,800 |
| BBAS3 | 15.48 | -8.35% | -32.11% | 16.89 | 15.67 | 14.72 | 146,447,300 |
| B3SA3 | 14.76 | -0.27% | +4.53% | 14.80 | 14.90 | 14.47 | 48,848,300 |
| WEGE3 | 51.65 | +0.08% | +15.06% | 51.61 | 52.04 | 51.17 | 5,287,600 |
| PRIO3 | 63.30 | +2.98% | +58.21% | 61.47 | 63.87 | 60.79 | 6,527,400 |
| RENT3 | 29.58 | -2.18% | -31.31% | 30.24 | 30.42 | 29.05 | 11,810,900 |
| AZZA3 | 16.90 | +9.95% | -42.83% | 15.37 | 18.57 | 16.14 | 7,839,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.23 | -6.42% | -51.55% | 4.52 | 4.48 | 4.19 | 18,970,400 |
| GGBR4 | 24.97 | -1.11% | +31.08% | 25.25 | 25.26 | 24.69 | 4,076,200 |
| ENEV3 | 27.00 | -1.39% | +40.26% | 27.38 | 27.11 | 26.53 | 11,153,200 |
| LREN3 | 9.40 | -2.59% | -37.08% | 9.65 | 9.68 | 9.28 | 25,018,700 |
03 On the B3 radar today — retail sales and business confidence lead the data
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil retail sales (annual) | 09:00 BRT | Consensus 1, prior 0.4; the year-on-year reading, a test of how consumers cope with a high Selic |
| Brazil retail sales (monthly) | 09:00 BRT | Consensus −0.2, prior 0.1; the month-on-month reading |
| Brazil business confidence | 11:00 BRT | Consensus 46.5, prior 46.2; a read on corporate mood after the elections |
| US producer prices (PPI) | 10:30 BRT | Consensus 0.4 against a prior 1.3; feeds into the US rates outlook |
| US Federal Reserve speakers Collins and Bowman | 11:10 and 12:50 BRT | Tone on rates can move the dollar and Treasury yields |
Times are in Brasília time (BRT), the zone of the B3 exchange. The two retail sales lines are the year-on-year and month-on-month readings for September.
Retail sales matter because they show whether Brazilians are still spending despite borrowing costs near 13.75%. A weak print would feed the view that the central bank has room to cut later.
The earnings dates come from a single calendar snippet that we could not open directly. Check each company’s investor-relations page before acting.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Copom is the central bank’s rate committee, and the Selic is its benchmark rate. On 4 November it held the Selic at 13.75% a year, ending a run of five straight cuts, according to the Central Bank of Brazil’s statement.
Official October inflation, the IPCA, slowed to 0.14% for the month from 0.82% in September, the statistics agency IBGE reported on Thursday. The 12-month rate edged up to 4.63% from 4.58%.
We found no published market consensus for the full October reading, so we do not rate it as a beat or a miss. A slower monthly rate gives the Copom room to stay patient while the annual rate stays above the 4.5% upper limit of the tolerance band around its 3% target.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
No company news from a primary filing was confirmed for this morning, so we list none. Company results are posted on each firm’s investor-relations page.
06 The levels to watch at the open
For the real, the line is 5.64 per dollar, the settled 12-month high. A close above it would open fresh territory, while a retreat toward the round 5.50 area would suggest the dollar rush has paused.
For the Ibovespa, the nearest lows are far below at the 12-month low of 154,770, and the 9 October peak of 209,067 is the ceiling that matters over months. The US 10-year yield above 5% is the outside pressure to track for the rest of the day.
07 What to watch
- The real: Whether the dollar holds at 5.64 reais or retreats after the retail data
- Retail sales at 09:00 BRT: Consensus 1.0% year on year and −0.2% month on month; a miss strengthens the case for lower rates later
- US yields and Fed speakers: Collins at 11:10 BRT and Bowman at 12:50 BRT after the US 10-year hit 5.13%
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Frequently Asked Questions
Where will Brazilian stocks open today?
We found no confirmed futures price, so we do not give a level. The cues from Wall Street and US Treasury yields lean cautious.
What did the Copom do with the Selic?
The Copom held the Selic at 13.75% a year on 4 November, ending five straight cuts, according to the central bank’s statement.
Why is the real under pressure?
The dollar closed at 5.64 reais, a 12-month high, as US yields climbed and Brazil’s post-election politics unsettled investors. Confidence in this explanation is medium.
Which Brazilian data comes out today?
Two retail sales readings at 09:00 BRT and business confidence at 11:00 BRT. US producer prices follow at 10:30 BRT.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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