Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 17, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid signs of maturing bull-market resilience, where bad headlines increasingly fail to derail prices for long, as buyers step in on dips—exemplified by quick recoveries from recent political jolts.
Yet institutional strains persist, with a deepening trust breakdown between Congress and the Supreme Court over issues like the dosimetry bill, judicial ethics concerns in the Banco Master case, and probes into parliamentary amendments, heightening perceptions of institutional fragility.
A new 2026 election poll yesterday jolted political risk premiums, contributing to a sharper Ibovespa decline and the real weakening, while Copom minutes reinforced a restrictive Selic stance.
Economic Agenda for December 17, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- No key releases scheduled.
Mexico
- No key releases scheduled.
United Kingdom
- 07:00 AM BRT – Multiple inflation indicators (CPI YoY Act: 3.2% vs Cons: 3.5%; Core CPI YoY Act: 3.2% vs Cons: 3.4%; PPI Input YoY Act: 1.1%)
Implication: Softer-than-expected inflation prints signal cooling price pressures, potentially paving for BoE easing and weakening GBP, which could support high-yield currencies like BRL in carry trades.
Eurozone
- 10:00 AM BRT – Final CPI (YoY) (Nov) Act in line at 2.2%; Core CPI (YoY) Act 2.4%
Implication: Confirmatory data with no surprises reinforces ECB‘s disinflation path, supporting steady policy and mild EUR weakness that indirectly aids EM carry flows.
German Ifo Business Climate (Dec) expected stable around 88.2.
South Africa
- 08:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Nov) Act: 3.5% vs Cons: 3.6%
Implication: Continued cooling inflation supports SARB easing bias, with limited direct impact on Brazilian assets but adding to emerging-market disinflation narrative.
United States
- 00:00 AM BRT – Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- 13:15 PM BRT – Fed Waller Speaks
- 14:05 PM BRT – FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 17:30 PM BRT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Implication: Heavy Fed speaker schedule could clarify rate trajectory amid mixed signals, influencing dollar tone and year-end flows into emerging market carry like BRL.
- 15:30 PM BRT – EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Cons: -2.400M)
Implication: Drawdowns could support oil prices, benefiting Petrobras and energy-related flows.
Why These Events Matter: Today’s agenda lacks direct Brazilian or Mexican data, shifting focus to global disinflation signals from UK and Eurozone CPI prints, South African inflation, and a packed Fed speaking calendar that could shape dollar dynamics critical for year-end BRL positioning.
Softer global inflation reinforces easing expectations, potentially supportive for risk assets, while oil inventories add tone for commodity-sensitive Brazilian names.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
A new 2026 election poll jolted Brazil’s political risk premium, sending the Ibovespa down more than 2% and the real weaker.
Central bank minutes kept the Selic message restrictive, cooling expectations for early rate cuts. Brava and steel names rose, but Petrobras and transport-linked stocks pulled the index lower.
The Ibovespa fell 2.42% to close at 158,557.57.
Winners: Brava Energia (+2.47%), Metalúrgica Gerdau (+1.53%), Gerdau (+1.37%), CSN (+1.04%), WEG (+0.52%).
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed mixed on December 16, 2025, with the S&P 500 falling 0.2% to 6,800.26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.6% to 48,114.26, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.2% to 23,111.46.
Mixed economic data left uncertainty about the Fed’s next rate moves. Energy stocks led declines as oil prices hit multi-year lows.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s peso strengthened, trading near recent levels amid a softer dollar. The S&P/BMV IPC index slipped 1.70% from record highs, with losses in banks and consumer names amid risk-off tone ahead of Banxico decision.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso held firm with modest depreciation as markets tested new monetary rules tying FX bands to inflation. The Merval index closed higher, led by banks and high-beta names on improved policy credibility.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s peso steadied in a cooling trend. The COLCAP index eased 0.75%, hit by Fitch downgrade highlighting fiscal risks, oil pressure, and declines in Ecopetrol and Grupo Sura.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s markets continued post-election consolidation, shifting from euphoria to focus on execution realities. The IPSA retreated further amid profit-taking, while the peso held steady.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened as election talk and year-end dollar demand bit. USD/BRL rose 0.76% to R$5.4630, with resistance near 5.51–5.52 and support at 5.45–5.44.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin holds around $85,000 after ETF outflows.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
- A new Genial/Quaest 2026 election poll showed Lula leading but boosted political risk, contributing to market declines.
- Copom minutes emphasized a significantly contractionary Selic stance, raising the bar for near-term cuts.
- Brava Energia rose amid gas-asset talks; steel names like Gerdau, Metalúrgica Gerdau, and CSN gained; Petrobras declined with falling oil.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.76%
185,231.44
+0.76%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,061.81
+0.05%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,231.44 | +0.76% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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