Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 15, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open Monday on a positive note after the Ibovespa rallied 0.99% to 160,766 on Friday, led by banks as the U.S. lifted sanctions on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, easing tail risks tied to compliance and correspondent banking concerns.
A resilient services reading further supported long-duration names like retail and healthcare. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is considering stepping down in 2026 to focus on President Lula’s re-election campaign, raising questions about fiscal discipline ahead.
Corporate defaults reached a record 8.4 million companies with overdue debts, highlighting credit tightness amid high rates, while Azul secured U.S. court approval for its Chapter 11 restructuring plan, slashing debt and signaling stability for the airline sector.
Economic Agenda for December 15, 2025
Brazil
- 11:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Dec) Prev: 0.2%
- 11:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout
- 12:00 PM BRT – IBC-Br Economic Activity (Oct) Prev: -0.20%
Implication: Hotter inflation or hawkish Focus revisions reinforce high Selic trajectory, favoring defensives; softer prints open room for earlier cuts, boosting cyclicals and pressuring BRL lower.
Mexico
- (No major releases scheduled)
Peru
- 15:00 PM BRT – GDP (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 3.94%
- 15:00 PM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Nov) Prev: 5.9%
Implication: Weaker growth or rising joblessness adds to regional slowdown narrative, mild pressure on commodity-linked assets.
Colombia
- 15:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 5.2%
- 16:00 PM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 14.4%
Implication: Soft industrials or cooling consumption highlight patchy LatAm recovery, limited direct spill to Brazil.
United States
- 13:30 PM BRT – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) Prev: 18.70
- 15:00 PM BRT – NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec) Prev: 38
- 16:30 PM BRT – 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions
Implication: Downside surprises reinforce global easing bets, supporting commodities and EM risk; resilient data caps dollar retreat.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s Focus readout, IGP-10, and IBC-Br are the domestic highlights amid record corporate defaults signaling credit stress and political uncertainty over Haddad’s potential exit.
Regional data from Peru and Colombia provide context on LatAm growth momentum, while U.S. indicators set the tone for global risk and dollar direction after last week’s sanctions relief rally.
Brazil’s Markets on Friday
The B3 closed higher, with the Ibovespa up 0.99% to 160,766.37 on solid volume of R$23.1 billion, rallying on bank strength after the U.S. sanctions reversal on Justice Moraes eased tail risks. The move remained domestic-driven despite softer U.S. equities.
U.S. Markets on Friday
U.S. markets closed lower. S&P 500 -1.1% to 6,827.41, Dow -0.5% to 48,458.05, Nasdaq -1.7% to 23,195.17. Tech-led selling weighed heavily amid valuation rotation.
Mexico’s Market on Friday
1. Markets largely reflected Thursday’s pricing with Friday holiday closure.
2. USD/MXN supported by rate differential despite Banxico cut expectations.
3. IPC strength led by airports and cyclicals.
Argentina’s Market on Friday
1. USD/ARS ranges remained tight across segments (offshore ~1,440.5, blue ~1,445).
2. Bonds outperformed amid strong Treasury funding.
3. Merval and ADRs in consolidation mode.
Colombia’s Market on Friday
1. USD/COP near 3,803.5 early Monday (TRM 3,788.53).
2. High turnover Friday with wide range.
3. COLCAP -0.26% to 2,108.70; Terpel and ISA gains offset by weakness elsewhere.
Chile’s Market on Friday
1. Stocks closed at record highs pre-weekend.
2. USD/CLP firmer near 908 despite soft global dollar.
3. Post-election momentum intact but policy focus shifting.
Oil
Oil attempts a modest rebound on Venezuela supply disruptions. Brent ~$61.4/bbl, WTI ~$57.7/bbl.
Gold
Gold extends gains on falling yields and steady ETF inflows. Spot ~$4,342–4,344/oz.
Silver
Silver surges amid rate relief and physical demand tightness. ~$63.3/oz.
Copper
Copper pulls back sharply from record highs but supply constraints persist. LME 3-month mid-$11,000s/t.
Brazilian Real
The real opens the week near 5.41 USD/BRL after closing around 5.4108 Friday, pressured by cooler U.S. risk sentiment despite domestic carry support.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin trades around $89,626 after weekend volatility exposed thin liquidity.
Companies and Market
Key Developments
• U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Justice Moraes: Treasury delisted Moraes, family, and related entities, thawing bilateral ties and easing compliance tail risks; direct catalyst for Friday’s bank-led Ibovespa rally.
• Haddad Eyes Exit for Lula 2026 Campaign: Finance Minister considering 2026 departure to architect re-election strategy, potentially loosening fiscal reins amid spending pressures.
• Record Corporate Defaults: 8.4 million companies with overdue debts (total >R$200 billion), driven by high rates and tighter credit; services and commerce hardest hit.
• Azul Wins U.S. Court Approval for Restructuring: Chapter 11 plan confirmed, cutting net debt ~$3.3 billion with fresh capital including United and American Airlines investments; stabilizes Brazil’s airline sector.
Ibovespa futures suggest cautious consolidation near 160,500–161,000, balancing sanctions relief gains against fiscal and credit concerns unless domestic data surprises dovish.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.76%
185,231.44
+0.76%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,061.81
+0.05%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,231.44 | +0.76% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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