Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 12, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today with the Ibovespa edging toward fresh highs after a modest 0.07% gain to 159,189 points, supported by foreign inflows chasing Brazil’s high-yield appeal despite a split Fed and hawkish Copom hold.
The rally reflects investor bets on the real’s strength amid a softer dollar, though noisy politics like Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 bid and fiscal drift cap enthusiasm.
At the same time, November’s IPCA inflation cooled to a seven-year low of 0.18% MoM and 4.46% YoY, landing firmly inside the 1.5%–4.5% target band for the first time in years.
This outcome validates Copom’s contractionary Selic stance at 15% for a “prolonged period” to anchor expectations, despite sticky services inflation and external tariff risks.
This softer print, down from 4.83% for all of 2024, eases pressure on borrowers but underscores the need for fiscal discipline amid debt nearing 89% of GDP.
Meanwhile, a new Senate-approved bill turns online bettors into crime-fighting funders by taxing 15% on deposits to licensed sites. The measure could yield R$30 billion annually for police operations, intelligence efforts, and prison expansions.
It aims to squeeze gangs through harsher sentences and federal prison transfers. Critics, however, warn of black-market growth in an already overtaxed economy.
Sticky services inflation, São Paulo’s industrial plunge of 1.2% in October, and the farm sector’s tepid 1% agribusiness GDP outlook for 2026 amid 11.4% credit delinquencies add headwinds, even as robust foreign inflows and copper tailwinds cushion liquidity.
The real rallied 1.17% to R$5.40, bolstered by Copom’s hawkish hold offsetting the Fed’s third 0.25-point cut to 3.50%–3.75% and a dollar index slip toward 98, though USD/BRL eyes resistance at 5.52 with support at 5.35–5.38.
Economic Agenda for December 12, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- 12:00 PM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.6%
- 12:00 PM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 4.1%
Implication: A slowdown in services growth could highlight persistent high real rates from the 15% Selic and credit strains, reinforcing Copom’s hawkish bias amid November’s cooling IPCA at 4.46% YoY and amplifying pressures on consumption amid farm delinquencies and industrial fragmentation.
Mexico
- All Day – Bank Holiday
- 12:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: -2.4% Prev: -2.4%
- 12:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.0% Prev: -0.4%
Implication: Stagnant industrial output on a holiday backdrop tests Banxico’s resilience at 7.25%, supporting MXN near 18.02/USD but vulnerable to U.S. tariff risks and softer nearshoring flows if output misses signal broader slowdowns.
United States
- 01:15 AM BRT – President Trump Speaks
- 15:35 PM BRT – Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- 18:00 PM BRT – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Prev: 413
- 18:00 PM BRT – Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Prev: 549
Implication: Trump’s speech and Fed comments gauge post-cut policy tone, with rig stability signaling energy softening, easing yields and aiding BRL inflows via dollar weakness near 98 DXY.
United Kingdom
- 07:00 AM BRT – GDP (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.1%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.9% Prev: -2.0%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Construction Output (MoM) (Oct) Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.2%
Implication: Weaker GDP and construction could boost BoE cut odds, weakening GBP and favoring BRL carry trades amid global easing bias.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s Service Sector Growth at 12:00 PM is pivotal, with prior 0.6% MoM and 4.1% YoY readings at risk of contraction amid 15% Selic-induced credit squeezes and October’s fragmented industrial recovery.
Such softness would validate Copom’s “higher for longer” path despite IPCA’s seven-year November low at 0.18% MoM/4.46% YoY, emphasizing fiscal restraint to avoid debt shocks near 89% of GDP and curb farm sector risks like 11.4% delinquencies curbing 2026’s 1% agribusiness outlook.
The data could temper Ibovespa gains near 159,189 if it underscores broader momentum loss tied to manufacturing hubs 22.8% below 2011 peaks and extraction skews in states like Minas Gerais (+2.1%).
Mexico’s Industrial Production tests nearshoring strength on a bank holiday, with U.S. events probing Fed patience post-cut, potentially softening dollar tailwinds for LatAm; U.K. GDP adds easing signals.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa edged higher by 0.07% to 159,189 points, hovering just below 160,000 as Wall Street records and a split Fed decision buoyed sentiment.
Foreign inflows lifted Vale (+1.3%), banks like BTG Pactual (+2.5%), and domestic plays such as Hapvida (+3.4%), RD Saúde (+3.2%), and Vivara (+2.7%), while Petrobras (-2%) and Suzano (-4.3%) weighed on the index after weak guidance and retreating Brent.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed mixed on December 11, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.3% to a record 48,704.01, the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to a new record 6,901.00, and the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.3% to 23,593.86 as Oracle’s weak results and AI spending plans dragged tech. The Russell 2000 gained 1.2%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.02 per dollar. The S&P/BMV IPC rallied over 2% to a record 64,712 points. Winners: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (+6.0%), Orbia (+5.3%), Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (+5.0%), Kimberly-Clark de México (+3.8%), Cemex (+3.4%).
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The Argentine peso held steady with wholesale near 1,436. The Merval slipped 1.1% to 2.98 million points, consolidating near records on debt optimism but facing profit-taking.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed to spot 3,803/USD. The COLCAP eased 0.26% to 2,114.21 after a 50% YTD rally.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso surged to 914/USD. The IPSA jumped 1.9% to a record 10,362.9, up 54% YTD.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real rallied 1.17% to R$5.40 as Copom’s hawkish 15% Selic hold met the Fed’s softer cut, reviving carry trades. USD/BRL consolidates with support at 5.35–5.38 and resistance below 5.52.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stalled below $92,000 resistance after failing a four-hour moving average break; long-term uptrend holds but fragility shows in thinner liquidity.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s recovery falters as São Paulo’s industrial output drops 1.2% in October (cumulative -1.7%, 22.8% below 2011 peak), dragging national growth to +0.1%.
Growth skews to extraction states like Minas Gerais (+2.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (+4.1%). The farm sector eyes 1% GDP growth for 2026 despite R$1.57 trillion output (+5.1%), hampered by 11.4% delinquencies.
Key Developments
- Inflation cools to 4.46% YoY inside target for first time in years, but services stickiness sustains Copom’s 15% Selic “higher for longer.”
- Senate bill taxes online betting deposits 15% (R$30B/year) to fund anti-gang ops, harsher sentences, and prisons.
- São Paulo industry -1.2% MoM, national +0.1%, signaling fragmented recovery loss.
- Farm agribusiness GDP barely +1% in 2026 amid 11.4% delinquencies and credit rationing.
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 bid adds policy noise. Copom holds Selic at 15% with contractionary bias for prolonged period.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.50% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.67% | -8.52% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.16% | -11.27% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.54 | +6.88% | +46.75% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 45,584 |
| WTI | 92.00 | +5.95% | +41.00% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 358,886 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,050 | -2.34% | +19.32% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 149,514 |
| SILVER | 57.85 | -3.62% | +47.27% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,030 |
| LITHIUM | 68.77 | -0.34% | +58.19% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 104,969 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.17 | +1.39% | +34.92% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,309,600 |
| VALE3 | 75.57 | +0.63% | +31.61% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 12,883,000 |
| SUZB3 | 42.40 | -0.61% | -18.07% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,665,800 |
| KLABIN | 17.64 | -1.62% | -4.73% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 2,916,700 |
| SLCE3 | 13.74 | -1.58% | -14.32% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,705,300 |
| ABEV3 | 15.86 | -1.67% | +16.70% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,185,600 |
| ITUB4 | 42.40 | -1.17% | +23.34% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 16,868,600 |
| BBDC4 | 18.75 | -1.16% | +18.01% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 12,836,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.90 | -0.90% | +3.46% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,505,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.64 | -1.64% | +16.80% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 27,521,400 |
| WEGE3 | 45.18 | -3.34% | +18.89% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,260,800 |
| PRIO3 | 61.08 | +2.19% | +43.87% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,484,700 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.10% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,433,800 |
| AZZA3 | 17.09 | -4.04% | -53.93% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.07 | 1,815,600 |
| CSNA3 | 5.32 | -1.12% | -39.11% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 9,739,300 |
| GGBR4 | 24.18 | +0.50% | +40.42% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,474,500 |
| ENEV3 | 25.59 | -1.46% | +83.27% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,003,300 |
| LREN3 | 13.31 | -1.70% | -24.50% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,054,000 |