Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for December 12, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today with the Ibovespa edging toward fresh highs after a modest 0.07% gain to 159,189 points, supported by foreign inflows chasing Brazil’s high-yield appeal despite a split Fed and hawkish Copom hold.
The rally reflects investor bets on the real’s strength amid a softer dollar, though noisy politics like Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 bid and fiscal drift cap enthusiasm.
At the same time, November’s IPCA inflation cooled to a seven-year low of 0.18% MoM and 4.46% YoY, landing firmly inside the 1.5%–4.5% target band for the first time in years.
This outcome validates Copom’s contractionary Selic stance at 15% for a “prolonged period” to anchor expectations, despite sticky services inflation and external tariff risks.
This softer print, down from 4.83% for all of 2024, eases pressure on borrowers but underscores the need for fiscal discipline amid debt nearing 89% of GDP.
Meanwhile, a new Senate-approved bill turns online bettors into crime-fighting funders by taxing 15% on deposits to licensed sites. The measure could yield R$30 billion annually for police operations, intelligence efforts, and prison expansions.
It aims to squeeze gangs through harsher sentences and federal prison transfers. Critics, however, warn of black-market growth in an already overtaxed economy.
Sticky services inflation, São Paulo’s industrial plunge of 1.2% in October, and the farm sector’s tepid 1% agribusiness GDP outlook for 2026 amid 11.4% credit delinquencies add headwinds, even as robust foreign inflows and copper tailwinds cushion liquidity.
The real rallied 1.17% to R$5.40, bolstered by Copom’s hawkish hold offsetting the Fed’s third 0.25-point cut to 3.50%–3.75% and a dollar index slip toward 98, though USD/BRL eyes resistance at 5.52 with support at 5.35–5.38.
Economic Agenda for December 12, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil
- 12:00 PM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.6%
- 12:00 PM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 4.1%
Implication: A slowdown in services growth could highlight persistent high real rates from the 15% Selic and credit strains, reinforcing Copom’s hawkish bias amid November’s cooling IPCA at 4.46% YoY and amplifying pressures on consumption amid farm delinquencies and industrial fragmentation.
Mexico
- All Day – Bank Holiday
- 12:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: -2.4% Prev: -2.4%
- 12:00 PM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.0% Prev: -0.4%
Implication: Stagnant industrial output on a holiday backdrop tests Banxico’s resilience at 7.25%, supporting MXN near 18.02/USD but vulnerable to U.S. tariff risks and softer nearshoring flows if output misses signal broader slowdowns.
United States
- 01:15 AM BRT – President Trump Speaks
- 15:35 PM BRT – Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- 18:00 PM BRT – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Prev: 413
- 18:00 PM BRT – Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Prev: 549
Implication: Trump’s speech and Fed comments gauge post-cut policy tone, with rig stability signaling energy softening, easing yields and aiding BRL inflows via dollar weakness near 98 DXY.
United Kingdom
- 07:00 AM BRT – GDP (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.1%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.9% Prev: -2.0%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Construction Output (MoM) (Oct) Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.2%
Implication: Weaker GDP and construction could boost BoE cut odds, weakening GBP and favoring BRL carry trades amid global easing bias.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s Service Sector Growth at 12:00 PM is pivotal, with prior 0.6% MoM and 4.1% YoY readings at risk of contraction amid 15% Selic-induced credit squeezes and October’s fragmented industrial recovery.
Such softness would validate Copom’s “higher for longer” path despite IPCA’s seven-year November low at 0.18% MoM/4.46% YoY, emphasizing fiscal restraint to avoid debt shocks near 89% of GDP and curb farm sector risks like 11.4% delinquencies curbing 2026’s 1% agribusiness outlook.
The data could temper Ibovespa gains near 159,189 if it underscores broader momentum loss tied to manufacturing hubs 22.8% below 2011 peaks and extraction skews in states like Minas Gerais (+2.1%).
Mexico’s Industrial Production tests nearshoring strength on a bank holiday, with U.S. events probing Fed patience post-cut, potentially softening dollar tailwinds for LatAm; U.K. GDP adds easing signals.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa edged higher by 0.07% to 159,189 points, hovering just below 160,000 as Wall Street records and a split Fed decision buoyed sentiment.
Foreign inflows lifted Vale (+1.3%), banks like BTG Pactual (+2.5%), and domestic plays such as Hapvida (+3.4%), RD Saúde (+3.2%), and Vivara (+2.7%), while Petrobras (-2%) and Suzano (-4.3%) weighed on the index after weak guidance and retreating Brent.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed mixed on December 11, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.3% to a record 48,704.01, the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to a new record 6,901.00, and the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.3% to 23,593.86 as Oracle’s weak results and AI spending plans dragged tech. The Russell 2000 gained 1.2%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.02 per dollar. The S&P/BMV IPC rallied over 2% to a record 64,712 points. Winners: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (+6.0%), Orbia (+5.3%), Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (+5.0%), Kimberly-Clark de México (+3.8%), Cemex (+3.4%).
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The Argentine peso held steady with wholesale near 1,436. The Merval slipped 1.1% to 2.98 million points, consolidating near records on debt optimism but facing profit-taking.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed to spot 3,803/USD. The COLCAP eased 0.26% to 2,114.21 after a 50% YTD rally.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso surged to 914/USD. The IPSA jumped 1.9% to a record 10,362.9, up 54% YTD.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real rallied 1.17% to R$5.40 as Copom’s hawkish 15% Selic hold met the Fed’s softer cut, reviving carry trades. USD/BRL consolidates with support at 5.35–5.38 and resistance below 5.52.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stalled below $92,000 resistance after failing a four-hour moving average break; long-term uptrend holds but fragility shows in thinner liquidity.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s recovery falters as São Paulo’s industrial output drops 1.2% in October (cumulative -1.7%, 22.8% below 2011 peak), dragging national growth to +0.1%.
Growth skews to extraction states like Minas Gerais (+2.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (+4.1%). The farm sector eyes 1% GDP growth for 2026 despite R$1.57 trillion output (+5.1%), hampered by 11.4% delinquencies.
Key Developments
- Inflation cools to 4.46% YoY inside target for first time in years, but services stickiness sustains Copom’s 15% Selic “higher for longer.”
- Senate bill taxes online betting deposits 15% (R$30B/year) to fund anti-gang ops, harsher sentences, and prisons.
- São Paulo industry -1.2% MoM, national +0.1%, signaling fragmented recovery loss.
- Farm agribusiness GDP barely +1% in 2026 amid 11.4% delinquencies and credit rationing.
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 bid adds policy noise. Copom holds Selic at 15% with contractionary bias for prolonged period.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.76%
185,231.44
+0.76%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,061.81
+0.05%
2,785,510
+0.11%
2,549.57
-0.37%
60,410.88
+0.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,231.44 | +0.76% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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