BRAZIL · TRADE
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is Latin America’s biggest economy and a top supplier of soy, oil, iron ore, coffee and beef, so its trade numbers matter to buyers around the world.
- Why it matters Exports bring dollars into Brazil, which supports the real, and the week ended just before the election shock hit the currency.
- Why now The trade ministry published the fourth-week figures on Monday 26 October 2026, the day after the presidential runoff.
- What happened Brazil posted a US$1.69 billion trade surplus in the fourth week of October, with exports of US$8.46 billion and imports of US$6.77 billion.
- The numbers October so far shows a surplus of US$7.45 billion, and the daily export average is 27.9% above October 2025.
- What it means for you US buyers face a Brazilian supplier whose exports are running well ahead of last year, though this release does not split trade by country or product.
- Still open The ministry forecasts a 2026 surplus of US$84.4 billion, and the full October result is due once the month ends.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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In Plain English
The trade balance is exports minus imports, so a surplus means Brazil sold more abroad than it bought. Secex, the foreign trade secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), publishes it every week and every month.
A daily average divides a month’s total by the working days counted so far, which lets an unfinished month be compared with last October. The extractive industry is the ministry’s category for mining and oil extraction, and manufacturing covers processed goods.
Brazil posted a trade surplus of US$1.69 billion in the fourth week of October 2026, with exports of US$8.46 billion and imports of US$6.77 billion, according to the weekly note of the trade ministry’s foreign trade secretariat (Secex). October so far shows a surplus of US$7.45 billion, and the daily average of exports is 27.9% above October 2025, according to the ministry.
The fourth week ended before the runoff result moved markets, so the figures do not capture Monday’s market reaction, when the dollar rose from R$5.0377 per US$ on 23 October to R$5.5007 per US$ on 26 October on the central bank’s PTAX rate. The release therefore shows Brazil’s trade engine as it was before the election shock, and the open question is what a weaker real does to it in the coming weeks.
What the Week Shows
Exports of US$8.461 billion against imports of US$6.771 billion left a surplus of US$1.690 billion for the week, according to the ministry’s weekly note, which its news page rounds to US$1.7 billion. Trade flow, the sum of exports and imports, was US$15.2 billion, according to the ministry.
For the month to date, exports total US$29.310 billion and imports US$21.861 billion, which leaves a surplus of US$7.449 billion, according to the ministry’s weekly note. That is already close to the US$7.74 billion Brazil posted in all of September, as covered in the September trade report.
How This October Compares With 2025
Measured as a daily average, exports in the first four weeks of October were US$1.832 billion a day, up 27.9% from US$1.432 billion a day in October 2025, according to the ministry. Imports averaged US$1.366 billion a day, up 21.1% from US$1.128 billion, so exports are growing faster than imports.
Trade flow averaged US$3.198 billion a day, up 24.9%, and the balance averaged US$465.57 million a day, according to the ministry. Dividing the month-to-date exports by the daily average gives 16 working days so far, which fits the calendar because 12 October was a holiday.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
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Brazil — Live Market Board
-13.88%
176,608.23
-13.88%
69,470.99
-0.58%
10,575.59
-1.59%
3,017,221
—
2,505.04
-1.38%
57,093.72
+0.04%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,608.23 | -13.88% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Which Sectors Drove the Gain
The extractive industry, the category that covers mining and oil, grew fastest, with its daily export average up US$190.59 million, or 55.9%, according to the ministry. Manufacturing rose US$143.04 million a day, or 18.4%, and agriculture and livestock rose US$58.05 million a day, or 18.9%.
The extractive industry supplied almost half of the roughly US$400 million rise in the daily export average, and it reached US$8.51 billion over the four weeks, according to Agência Estado. Manufacturing remained the largest export sector at US$14.70 billion, and agriculture and livestock reached US$5.85 billion.
What Imports Say About Demand
Imports rose 21.1% in daily-average terms, and manufactured goods make up about 92% of the total, at US$20.16 billion of the US$21.861 billion bought so far in October, according to Agência Estado. Manufacturing imports rose US$209.2 million a day, or 19.9%, according to the ministry.
Extractive imports rose 43.5% to US$1.12 billion and agricultural imports rose 24.4% to US$44 million, according to Agência Estado. The sources reviewed do not name products, so they do not show whether the rise reflects machinery, components, fuels or consumer goods.
The 2026 Forecast and the Year So Far
The surplus from January to the fourth week of October is US$69.845 billion, against US$52.985 billion in the same period of 2025, according to Agência Estado. That is a rise of about 31.8% on those two figures, although the agency’s text gives 36.4%, which does not match its own two figures.
The ministry projects a 2026 surplus of US$84.4 billion, up 24.0% from 2025, after cutting it in early October from US$90 billion, according to Agência Estado. That forecast leaves about US$14.6 billion to be earned from 26 October to year end, and the year-to-date surplus already exceeds the roughly US$68 billion that the 24.0% rise implies for all of 2025.
What It Means for You
For US readers, the numbers show a Brazilian export machine running about 28% ahead of last October just before the election shock, which matters for American buyers of Brazilian commodities and manufactured goods. This release does not break trade down by country, so it does not show how much of the rise went to the United States.
A rate of R$5.5007 per US$ can make Brazilian goods cheaper in dollar terms while raising the cost of imported inputs in reais, so the next weekly releases will show whether the pattern holds. Earlier trade coverage is in the September trade report, the Brazil Focus survey report and the Brazil news hub.
What Is Not Known
The sources reviewed do not name the products behind the extractive and manufacturing gains, so it is not known how much came from oil, iron ore or other goods. They also do not break trade down by destination, including the United States.
The ministry’s news page gives rounded figures, such as US$1.7 billion for the week, so the exact weekly and monthly figures here come from its weekly note, while the sector totals, the year-to-date figures and the forecast come from Agência Estado texts published by regional outlets. The 36.4% year-to-date growth in those texts does not match the agency’s own figures, so this report uses the 31.8% that the two figures give.
The 2026 forecast of US$84.4 billion was not found on the ministry page opened for this report, so it rests on Agência Estado. How the election shock will affect the last five weekdays of October is not known until the ministry publishes the full October data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Brazil’s trade surplus in the fourth week of October?
Brazil posted a US$1.69 billion surplus, with exports of US$8.46 billion and imports of US$6.77 billion, according to the trade ministry’s weekly note. Its news page rounds the surplus to US$1.7 billion.
How big is Brazil’s October trade surplus so far?
The surplus for October so far is US$7.449 billion, with exports of US$29.31 billion and imports of US$21.861 billion. The full-month surplus for September was US$7.74 billion.
How fast are Brazil’s exports growing?
The daily export average is US$1.832 billion, up 27.9% from October 2025, according to the trade ministry. The daily import average is up 21.1%.
What is Brazil’s trade surplus for the year so far?
The surplus from January to the fourth week of October is US$69.845 billion, against US$52.985 billion a year earlier, a rise of about 31.8% on those two figures. The ministry forecasts US$84.4 billion for 2026.
Do these numbers include the market reaction to the election?
No, the fourth week closed before the runoff result moved markets. The dollar rose 9.2% against the real between 23 and 26 October on the central bank rate, and the effect on trade will show in later releases.
Sources: Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), 26 October 2026; MDIC weekly trade balance note, fourth week of October 2026; MDIC trade balance main results, September 2026; Canal Rural, with Estadão Conteúdo, 26 October 2026; O Povo, with Agência Estado, 26 October 2026; Tribuna do Sertão, with Agência Estado, 26 October 2026; Jornal do Comércio, 26 October 2026; Central Bank of Brazil PTAX rate, 26 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief