Published Monday, 26 October, 11:55 a.m. ET · Source: Banco Central do Brasil (the central bank), Polymarket, RT market data
Key Facts
—The forecast. Economists polled by the central bank see the dollar at R$5.05 at end-2026, down from R$5.13.
—The catch. Their answers date from Friday 23 October, before Lula won on Sunday. The real traded near R$5.40 on Monday.
—The rate. They expect the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, at 11.75% at end-2027, down from 12.00%.
—Next. Copom, the central bank’s rate committee, decides on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket, an online prediction market, prices no change at about 75% and a cut at 12% (26 October, 11:37 a.m. ET).
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s economists handed in their forecasts on Friday, two days before the runoff vote. On Monday morning the central bank published them anyway, and the numbers already look out of date.
The weekly Focus survey, run by Brazil’s central bank among more than 100 banks and investment funds, puts the dollar at R$5.05 at the end of 2026. The real traded near R$5.40 at 11:35 a.m. ET, about 8% weaker than Friday’s close of R$4.98, after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election on Sunday 25 October.
The exchange rate is the cleanest sign that the survey and the market have parted ways. The rest of the table, which covers the Selic, inflation and growth, is what Brazil’s economy now has to be measured against.
What the Economists Expected
The median forecast for the dollar at the end of 2026 fell to R$5.05 from R$5.13 a week earlier. For the end of 2027 it fell to R$5.15 from R$5.22.
The median for the Selic, the central bank’s benchmark interest rate, stayed at 13.25% for the end of 2026. For the end of 2027 it fell to 11.75% from 12.00%, a deeper cut by a quarter of a point.
Inflation forecasts barely moved. The median is 5.19% for 2026 against 5.22% a week earlier, and 4.34% for 2027 against 4.32%.
The official target is 3%, with a tolerance band that tops out at 4.5%, so both years sit above it. Growth forecasts also edged down, to 1.80% for 2026 and 1.31% for 2027.
Why Friday’s Numbers Are Already Stale
The gap is easy to measure. A dollar at R$5.05 is the economists’ view, and R$5.40 is the market’s, a difference of about 7%.
Survey participants can change their answers any day, so the next weekly reports will show how far views move. Until then, the Selic path in this table is a pre-election view.
The Selic stands at 13.75%, after the central bank began cutting it from 15% in March. The central bank’s rate committee, called Copom, meets on 3 and 4 November and announces its decision on Wednesday 4 November.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, an online prediction market, prices the November decision at about 75% for no change, 12.0% for a quarter-point cut and 4.2% for a quarter-point rise. About US$100,000 has been traded on that question (26 October 2026, 11:37 a.m. ET).
For the 9 December meeting, the same platform gives about 64% to no change and 12.8% to a rise of half a point or more. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
For a dollar investor, the survey is a reminder that published forecasts lag the market by days. Anyone pricing Brazilian bonds or US-listed Brazilian stocks should treat the R$5.05 forecast as a starting point, not a guide.
Travellers feel the move directly. At R$5.40 per dollar, R$100 costs about US$18.50, compared with about US$20.10 at Friday’s R$4.98.
What Is Not Known
Nobody yet knows how far economists will lift their dollar and Selic forecasts. It is also open whether Copom keeps the rate at 13.75% on 4 November.
Sources
Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey · Banco Central do Brasil, Copom calendar · Polymarket, November Brazil rate decision · RT market data, USD/BRL · The Rio Times, Brazil inflation and Focus · The Rio Times, Selic guide
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Focus survey?
The Focus survey is a weekly poll run by Brazil’s central bank. It asks more than 100 banks and funds for forecasts on inflation, growth, the exchange rate and the Selic.
Will Brazil cut interest rates in November?
Copom decides on Wednesday 4 November, with the Selic at 13.75%. Polymarket gives 12.0% to a quarter-point cut and about 75% to no change.