BRAZIL · ELECTION
Published Monday, 26 October, 7:24 a.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazilian Senate, Bolsonaro campaign statements
Key Facts
- —The short answer Almost certainly not. No court has accepted his challenge or ordered a recount.
- —What he says Flávio Bolsonaro says he cannot accept the result and will ask judges to cancel the vote.
- —What he points to Two extra voting hours on election day, which the electoral court says changed nothing.
- —What happens next Lula is certified by 18 December and takes office on 5 January.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Flávio Bolsonaro lost Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday night, and he is refusing to accept it. He says he will ask the courts to cancel the election, but nothing so far suggests the judges will listen.
Lula won by about 4.4 million votes, a cushion so wide that even Bolsonaro’s allies have struggled to name one place where the result could have flipped. The country’s electoral court, the TSE, has declared him the winner, and no judge has suspended that decision or ordered a recount.
What Bolsonaro Is Saying
“It is impossible to recognize the election results,” Flávio told reporters, arguing that the rules were changed in the middle of the vote. His brother Eduardo, who spent the campaign lobbying in Washington, went further: in an English-language video he asked foreign governments not to recognise the result.
He offered no evidence of fraud.
The Extension at the Heart of the Fight
On election day, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, whom Lula appointed in 2023, gave voters two extra hours after transport problems kept some people from reaching their polling places. Bolsonaro’s camp now calls that unfair.
But both campaigns had asked for more voting time: Lula’s side nationwide at the Supreme Court, Flávio’s side for 17 towns at the electoral court. TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques says he has “absolute security” in the result and that the extension changed nothing in the count.
Why Courts Rarely Cancel an Election
To overturn a presidential vote, a court would have to find an illegality so serious that it changed who won. That is a very high bar, and legal analysts say this challenge does not come close to it.
His supporters see something else: a Supreme Court, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes in particular, reaching too far into politics. The TSE answers that no fraud has been proven in Brazil’s electronic voting system.
What Happens Next
Expect legal filings in the coming days and loud politics online, though we found no sign yet of a national protest movement. Lula’s certificate is due by 18 December, and he takes office on 5 January 2027.
Washington is watching too: see what Trump may do about Lula’s win, and follow the state-by-state results map.
What We Do Not Know
We do not know whether a formal petition has been filed, what it would ask for, or whether Flávio’s Liberal Party will sign it. We also do not know how big any street response will be.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede stop Lula from taking office?
No. The TSE has declared Lula the winner, and refusing to concede does not undo that. His certificate is due by 18 December and he takes office on 5 January 2027, unless a court rules otherwise.
What is Bolsonaro challenging?
He attacks a two-hour voting extension ordered by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin. The TSE says it did not change the outcome, and his own campaign had asked for more time in 17 towns.
How likely is an annulment?
Legal analysts say it is very unlikely. A court would need to find an illegality that changed the result, and Lula’s lead is more than 4 million votes.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · Brazilian Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) · Brazilian Senate · statements by the Bolsonaro campaign.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief