Brazilians in US Give Bolsonaro’s Son 62.65%
BRAZIL · ELECTION
Key Facts
- —What is happening Brazilians registered in the United States voted 62.65% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 37.35% for Lula in the Sunday, 25 October runoff, the reverse of the national result.
- —Why it matters The US holds the largest Brazilian electorate abroad, 265,047 registered voters, and fear of immigration agents may have kept many at home.
- —The numbers Flávio won 53,718 votes and Lula 32,023 in the US, while 67.02% of registered Brazilians there did not vote, down from 71.55% in the first round.
- —Who is who Lula (Workers’ Party, left) won nationally with 51.79% of valid votes; Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, conservative) is the son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro and has not conceded.
- —What to watch Lula is due to be sworn in for a fourth term on 5 January 2027, while Flávio’s camp disputes the result.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you An estimated 2 million Brazilians live in the US, so this vote is a rare count of how a large immigrant community leans.
Live tonight
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The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazilians in the US backed Flávio Bolsonaro by about five to three. Lula still won the national runoff.
Brazilians in the US voted 62.65% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 37.35% for President Lula in the Sunday, 25 October runoff. The count covers 11 US voting areas, from Orlando to San Francisco, CNN Brasil reported from TSE data.
Lula won the Brazil election 2026 runoff nationally with 51.79% of valid votes, the electoral court (TSE) count shows. The US result therefore ran more than 14 points the other way.
How the US Vote Split
Flávio won 53,718 votes in the United States and Lula 32,023, a gap of 21,695. Terra and Diário do RN, two Brazilian outlets, report the same 62.65% to 37.35% split.
Both candidates gained since the first round on Sunday, 4 October, when Flávio had 61.10% and Lula 31.68%. Flávio rose 1.55 points and Lula 5.67 points, the broadcaster’s count shows.
Turnout rose too, to 87,407 voters from 75,389 in the first round. That is 12,018 more people, and Lula’s votes grew by 37% against 19% for Flávio.
Where Each Candidate Won
Flávio’s best result was Orlando with 81.01%, followed by Miami with 76.64% and Boston with 71.58%, the broadcaster reported. The local site Tudo para Brasileiros confirms the Orlando figure of 8,042 votes to 1,885 for Lula.
Lula won San Francisco with 65.18%, Chicago with 63.84% and Washington with 57.56%. The same count gives him Los Angeles with 55.03% and New York with 52.40%.
Flávio carried six of the 11 areas in all, adding Atlanta, Houston and Hartford. Miami’s post also covers Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, and Boston’s covers four New England states.
Why Two in Three Stayed Home
Of 265,047 registered Brazilians in the US, 177,640 did not vote, an abstention rate of 67.02%. That is down from 71.55% in the first round but above the 61.44% of the 2022 runoff.
Historian Rafael Ioris wrote in The Conversation, via WLRN, that it was unclear whether ICE operations kept people from voting. He added that some Brazilians say fear of ICE, the US immigration police, lowered first-round turnout versus 2022.
Ioris also wrote that expatriate groups advised Brazilians with precarious immigration status not to vote. Consul General Adalnio Ganem told the broadcaster he believed part of the abstention came from restrictive US immigration policies.
In New York, the first-round voting site moved from Manhattan to Queens, and party monitors cited the distance as an obstacle. Brazil’s foreign ministry counted 2.075 million Brazilians in the US in 2023, the same outlet said, but only 265,000 are registered.
In Plain English
- Runoff: the second round between the top two candidates, held on 25 October.
- Lula: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party president, now re-elected.
- Flávio Bolsonaro: the conservative Liberal Party candidate and son of Jair Bolsonaro.
- TSE: Brazil’s electoral court, which runs the vote and certifies results.
- Voting abroad: Brazilians vote at consulates, in 11 US areas, and those votes count in the national total.
How the US Compares With the World
Brazilians abroad as a whole gave Lula 200,154 votes (53.86%) and Flávio 171,497 (46.14%), Diário do RN reported. Abstention abroad was 58.37%, lower than the 67.02% among Brazilians in the US.
Valid US votes of about 85,700 were roughly 23% of the 371,651 cast abroad, a Rio Times calculation. The pattern differs sharply elsewhere, as a Rio Times report on Brazilians in Germany shows.
What It Means for US Readers
The largest registered Brazilian blocs sit in Boston (53,358), Miami (40,060), New York (38,952) and Orlando (26,387), the broadcaster’s tally shows. Florida and the Northeast therefore hold much of the community.
The US net gap of 21,695 votes cannot change the outcome, given Lula’s national lead of about 4.4 million votes. It does show a community split by region, with Florida and New England for Flávio and California, Chicago and Washington for Lula.
Brazilians in the US also live under US immigration enforcement, which some sources cite as a possible factor in the low turnout. Background on the country is on the Rio Times Brazil hub, and the full runoff results are on the results page.
What Is Not Known
The TSE results site could not be opened, so the US figures rest on one broadcaster’s count of TSE data. Terra and Diário do RN match the US percentages, and Tudo para Brasileiros matches Orlando.
City results other than Orlando come from one outlet alone. No source proves why turnout rose, and ICE fear is a possible factor, not a proven cause.
Outlets round Lula’s national share as 51.78% or 51.79%, and the sources reviewed do not show the TSE’s formal declaration. The 51.79% used here matches the vote totals.
What Comes Next
Lula is due to take office on 5 January 2027, while Flávio Bolsonaro says he will ask courts to annul the vote. The US votes are part of the national count, so they do not change the winner.
The sources reviewed give no date for final certification of the results. They also do not say whether consulates will change US voting sites before the next election.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Brazilians in the US vote in the runoff?
Flávio Bolsonaro won 62.65% (53,718 votes) and Lula 37.35% (32,023). The vote was held on Sunday, 25 October.
How many Brazilians in the US can vote?
The count lists 265,047 registered voters in 11 US areas. Brazil’s foreign ministry counted about 2.075 million Brazilians in the United States in 2023.
Which US areas voted most for Lula?
The count shows San Francisco (65.18%), Chicago (63.84%) and Washington (57.56%). It also gives him Los Angeles and New York.
Why was abstention so high among Brazilians in the US?
It was 67.02%. Some Brazilians cite fear of ICE, but no source proves a cause.
Did the US vote change who won Brazil’s election?
No, because Lula won nationally with 51.79% of valid votes, per the TSE count. Votes cast abroad are part of that national total.
Sources: CNN Brasil, US result, 25 October; Same outlet, US abstention, 25 October; Same outlet, consul general, 4 October; Same outlet, national result; Same outlet, Flávio on annulment; Terra, overseas vote; Diário do RN, overseas result; Diário do RN, inauguration date; Tudo para Brasileiros, Orlando; WLRN, 13 October (all accessed 26 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief