Brazil’s Lula Starts Fourth Term 5 January
Published Sunday, 25 October 2026, 10:52 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results files; Planalto; Congress
Brazil chose its president on Sunday night, and the next ten weeks decide how smoothly he starts. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old president and leftist leader of the Workers’ Party, won the 25 October runoff, the second-round vote between the top two candidates, and will begin a fourth term on 5 January 2027.
Key Facts
- —Result Brazil’s electoral court confirmed Lula as winner on Sunday, 51.79% to 48.21%, a gap of about 4.4 million votes.
- —Swearing-in Lula takes office on 5 January 2027 before Congress; governors follow on 6 January.
- —Challenge Flávio Bolsonaro, the senator who lost, says he will ask courts to annul the vote; no filing was confirmed on Sunday night.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, prices Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by 31 October at 10.8% (US$11,273 traded, 10:52 p.m. ET).
Live results
Follow Brazil’s runoff count on our results page
Official TSE numbers, state by state, as soon as the electoral court publishes them.
Because the sitting president won, no government changes hands, which makes this a Brazil election 2026 story about the budget, the cabinet and a rival who will not concede. The tally is on our Brazil election results page, with the numbers in our runoff results report, and our Brazil election 2026 guide and Brazil election polls tracker give the background.
In Plain English
- TSE: the Superior Electoral Court, which runs Brazil’s elections and announces the official result; its president is Kassio Nunes Marques.
- Flávio Bolsonaro: a 45-year-old conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who lost the runoff.
- Certification: a formal ceremony, called diplomação in Portuguese, at which the court hands winners their official certificates.
- Congress: Brazil’s legislature, made up of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate; it votes the budget.
The Official Result Is In
With the count complete as of 10:27 p.m. ET, the electoral court’s results files show Lula with 64,256,232 votes (51.79%) and Flávio Bolsonaro with 59,826,041 (48.21%). The percentages are shares of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots.
The court’s president, Kassio Nunes Marques, confirmed the result on Sunday evening and noted that Lula has now won four presidential races. That makes him the first president elected four times in Brazil’s current democracy.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro’s Challenge Go Anywhere?
At about 10:40 p.m. in Brasília (9:40 p.m. ET), Flávio Bolsonaro said it was “impossible to recognise the result” and that his lawyers would ask for the election to be annulled. His main complaint is that Cristiano Zanin, a justice of the Supreme Federal Court, Brazil’s top court, extended voting by two hours, to 7 p.m., which he says “changes the rules of the game”.
Both campaigns had asked for more time, Flávio’s only in some states.We could not confirm that any petition had been filed by Sunday night.In November 2022 the same electoral court threw out a request by Jair Bolsonaro’s party to void votes from many voting machines.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
The Dates That Matter
Key Dates
- 3–4 November: the central bank’s rate-setting committee (Copom) meets; the decision comes on the 4th.
- Mid-December: the electoral court certifies the winners in a formal ceremony.
- December: Congress must pass the 2027 federal budget before its session ends.
- 5 January 2027: Lula and Geraldo Alckmin, the vice president, are sworn in.
- 1 February: newly elected senators and deputies take their seats.
The 5 January swearing-in is new. A 2021 constitutional amendment moved it from 1 January, a holiday that, backers argued, made it hard for foreign leaders to attend.
It is the first swearing-in away from 1 January in about three decades.
Why the Budget Comes First
The 2027 budget bill is the first real test of the new term, and Congress must pass it before its session ends in December, days before Lula is sworn in. Lawmakers decide how much money goes to local spending priorities and how much room the government keeps.
Our explainer on the Congress that will limit the runoff winner shows why this vote matters.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders priced “Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by 31 October” at 10.8% (US$11,273 traded) at 10:52 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October. These are bets, not polls or court findings.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and ADRs (US-listed shares of Brazilian companies), the vote ends the election uncertainty and shifts attention to the 4 November rate decision and the December budget vote. Brazilian markets react when trading resumes on Monday 26 October.
Travellers and residents face no change: the same president and government stay in office.
What Is Not Known
We do not know whether Flávio Bolsonaro will file his challenge, how the electoral court would answer it, or whether Lula will reshuffle his cabinet. The budget outcome in December is also open.
Related coverage: our brazil agribusiness guide.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Lula take office?
On 5 January 2027, sworn in before Congress, with Geraldo Alckmin as vice president. A 2021 constitutional amendment moved the date from 1 January.
Can the runoff result still be overturned?
Flávio Bolsonaro says he will ask courts to annul it, but we had not seen a filing on Sunday night. The electoral court has already declared Lula the winner.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results files; Constitutional Amendment 111 (Planalto); Congress budget page; Polymarket. Data as of 10:52 p.m. ET, Sunday 25 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: When is the Brazil runoff election. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.