How Brazil Feeds the World: Inside the 2026 Agribusiness Boom

RioTimes Evergreen Guide | Series: Latin America Investing

Brazil agribusiness is a structural pillar of the global food system. In 2026, Brazil stands as the world’s largest producer or exporter of soybeans, beef, coffee, sugar, and cotton simultaneously — a combination no other country approaches. As US-China trade tensions deepen, Brazil has become the indispensable swing supplier to the world’s largest importing nation, making it essential territory for commodities traders, agricultural investors, and supply chain analysts alike.

Soy — The Cornerstone Crop

Soy is the engine of Brazilian agriculture. The 2025–2026 harvest is on track for a new all-time record: CONAB — Brazil’s national supply company — projects output of approximately 177.8 million metric tons, up from 171.5 million the prior cycle, while Hedgepoint Global Markets puts the figure at 179.5 million metric tons. The USDA aligns at roughly 175 million metric tons. All three agencies agree this will be the largest soybean crop in history. Export volumes are forecast to match the production surge, with CONAB projecting 114.4 million metric tons of shipments — up from around 109 million a year earlier.

The production heartland is the Cerrado, the tropical savanna biome spanning Mato Grosso, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, and the expanding MATOPIBA frontier (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia). Mato Grosso alone accounted for roughly 30% of Brazilian soy exports in 2025, with planted area rising from 9.7 million hectares in 2019 to 13.1 million hectares by 2025–26, according to CONAB. The dominant trading companies shaping this supply chain are Amaggi (the world’s largest single soy producer), alongside global majors Cargill, ADM, Bunge, and Louis Dreyfus. The proposed Ferrogrão railroad — a 933-kilometre link from Mato Grosso to the port of Miritituba in Pará — would move up to 65 million metric tons of grain per year once built, materially reducing transport costs versus road haulage to Santos.

Beef: The World’s Largest Exporter

Brazil’s beef sector entered 2026 holding a dual record: it is now the world’s largest beef exporter and, for the first time since the 1960s, the world’s largest beef producer by volume, having overtaken the United States in 2025. ABIEC, the beef exporters association, confirmed that 2025 exports reached 3.50 million metric tons — a 20.9% increase year-on-year — generating $18.03 billion in revenue, up 40.1% from 2024. China absorbed 1.68 million metric tons worth $8.90 billion, representing 48% of total Brazilian beef exports. The US ranked second at 271,800 tonnes, followed by Chile, the EU, Russia, and Mexico.

The four companies dominating this sector — JBS (the world’s largest meat processor), Marfrig, Minerva Foods, and BRF — collectively control the bulk of Brazil’s slaughter and export capacity. On the ESG front, Marfrig and EMBRAPA jointly launched a Low Carbon Beef seal at COP30 in Belém, while Imaflora’s new Beef on Track (BoT) certification — the world’s first deforestation-free beef label, with four tiers from bronze to platinum — began operating in 2026. China’s Tianjin Meat Association committed to buying at least 50,000 tonnes of BoT-certified beef by June 2026. However, Beijing simultaneously introduced annual import quotas: above 1.106 million metric tons, a 55% tariff kicks in, creating a quota management challenge after January 2026 alone saw record monthly shipments of 119,630 tonnes.

Coffee, Sugar, Corn and Cotton

Coffee. Brazil has been the world’s number-one coffee producer for over 150 years. CONAB forecasts 2026 production of 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags — up 17.2% year-on-year — driven by the strong on-year cycle in Brazil’s biennial arabica calendar. Arabica output is projected at 44.1 million bags (+23.2%) and robusta at 22.1 million bags (+6.3%). Arabica futures remain elevated following an August 2025 frost event; Rabobank expects prices to settle between $2.50 and $3.00 per pound by late 2026. Frost in the coffee belt states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná remains the sector’s perennial volatility driver.

Sugar and Ethanol. Brazil’s sugarcane mills operate a unique dual-market model, switching production between sugar and ethanol based on relative prices. USDA FAS forecasts the 2025–26 utilisation mix at approximately 51% sugar, 49% ethanol, with sugar output near 44.7 million metric tons and exports of 35.8 million metric tons. Ethanol production could reach a record 36.5 billion litres in 2026–27 as new corn-ethanol capacity supplements sugarcane. The government’s RenovaBio programme — which issues tradeable Decarbonisation Credits (CBIOs) to biofuel producers — set a 2026 target of 48.09 million CBIOs, underpinning the economics of the clean-fuel transition.

Corn. Brazil is the world’s second-largest corn exporter, having surpassed the US in the 2022–23 season — a structural shift powered by the safrinha (second crop) system, where corn follows soy on the same land. CONAB projects 2025–26 output at 138.9 million metric tons, with exports of 46.5 million metric tons as Brazil benefits from strong domestic prices and rerouted international demand.

Cotton. Brazil surpassed the United States as the world’s largest cotton exporter in 2024 and is projecting a 33% global market share in 2026, with 3.1 million tonnes exported from a record 4.1-million-tonne production base. Mato Grosso accounts for nearly 70% of national output, with MATOPIBA expanding rapidly. Key buyers include Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and China.

The Agribusiness-China Connection

No bilateral trade relationship shapes Brazilian agribusiness more profoundly than the China link. In 2025, Brazil supplied 73.6% of China’s total soy imports — up from 71% the prior year — as the US-China trade war pushed China to effectively zero out American soybean purchases between May and October. Brazil’s soy exports to China reached a record 85.4 million metric tons, roughly 80% of total Brazilian soy shipments. China also took 48% of Brazil’s beef, 49% of its cellulose, 33% of its cotton, and 29% of its sugar.

The 2026 dynamic remains Brazil-favourable. Brazilian soybeans carry a 3% Chinese MFN import tariff, while US soybeans still attract a 10% additional levy — creating a structural price advantage of $30–$75 per metric ton that steers Chinese private processors toward Brazilian origin. State-owned buyers (COFCO, Sinograin) have absorbed most US purchases to meet government commitments, but private-sector demand continues to favour Brazil. Rabobank and Hedgepoint forecast Brazil will export 85–90 million metric tons of soybeans to China in 2025–26, near or above the prior year’s record. Any acceleration of China-Brazil trade would drive further investment in the northern “arc of grain” ports — Barcarena, Santarém, Itacoatiara — reducing dependence on Santos.

US Tariffs and the Impact on Brazilian Agricultural Exports

US tariff policy toward Brazil escalated sharply through mid-2025. A 10% reciprocal tariff on all Brazilian imports took effect in April 2025 under the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” orders. By July 30, an additional 40% IEEPA tariff — citing political grievances over Brazil’s prosecution of former President Bolsonaro and its regulation of US tech companies — raised the combined rate to 50%, effective August 6.

The initial order included roughly 694 exemptions: orange juice, nuts, cellulose, and fertilisers remained at 10%. However, beef, coffee, sugarcane products, tropical fruits, seafood, and cocoa faced the full 50% rate — a significant blow, given that the US had been one of the fastest-growing markets for Brazilian beef and coffee in early 2025. Brazilian beef shipments to the US collapsed from nearly 48,000 tonnes per month before August to under 10,000 tonnes in subsequent months. Coffee exporters rerouted volumes to Asia and Europe, contributing to arabica supply tightness and elevated prices globally.

The situation partially reversed on November 20, 2025. Following diplomatic progress after an October Trump-Lula call, an Executive Order removed the 40% IEEPA levy from 238 agricultural categories — including beef and coffee — effective November 13. These products now face the baseline 10% rate. Crucially for Brazilian agribusiness’s largest commodity flows, soybeans, corn, and cotton were never significantly exposed to the US tariff situation because they flow overwhelmingly to China and Asia, not the US market. Iron, steel, footwear, and industrial goods remain subject to elevated duties. US-Brazil negotiations are ongoing, with both sides working toward a broader framework that would open Brazil’s market to US poultry, beef, and bison while addressing non-tariff barriers.

Brazil Agribusiness Risks: Climate, Infrastructure and Deforestation

Climate. El Niño and La Niña cycles produce uneven rainfall across Brazil’s vast production zones. Droughts in the Cerrado can cut soy and corn yields; frosts in Minas Gerais and Paraná periodically damage the coffee crop. EMBRAPA, Brazil’s state agricultural research corporation, is addressing both risks through CRISPR-edited drought-resistant soy and corn varieties capable of maintaining yields under water stress, and through low-carbon livestock protocols demonstrated to cut methane emissions by up to 70% per kilogram of weight gain. Satellite monitoring and bio-inputs that strengthen root systems under drought are being deployed sector-wide.

Infrastructure. The Port of Santos — South America’s largest port — handled 179.8 million tonnes in 2024, is approaching capacity, and is the sector’s most acute bottleneck. A R$12.6 billion ($2.5 billion) modernisation plan is underway, including channel deepening to 16 metres by 2026, but Santos Brasil and DP World’s terminal expansions will not be complete until late 2026 at the earliest. Port congestion cost coffee exporters $1.57 million in a single month (March 2025) when 600,000 bags could not be loaded. Inland logistics are equally strained: road freight from Mato Grosso to Santos can consume more than $50 per tonne, eroding competitiveness. The Ferrogrão railroad and port auctions at São Sebastião (scheduled for 2026 with R$2.5 billion in planned investment) represent the most consequential near-term solutions.

Deforestation Rules. The Amazon Soy Moratorium (2006) produced a 69% deforestation reduction in monitored municipalities even as Amazon soy area grew 344%. But no equivalent agreement covers the Cerrado, where agricultural expansion is now most intense: CONAB records 3.4 million additional hectares of soy in Mato Grosso since 2019, with 470,000 hectares of Cerrado deforestation in that period. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), delayed to late 2026, will eventually require full supply-chain traceability for soy and beef entering EU markets; companies that cannot demonstrate compliance risk market exclusion. Imaflora’s Beef on Track (BoT) label and the Cerrado Protocol are the industry’s primary compliance tools. Soy traders Cargill, ADM, and Amaggi are investing in satellite-linked farm-level traceability to future-proof their EU market access.

These risks do not threaten Brazil’s agricultural dominance over a five-year horizon. They define the cost structure embedded in that dominance — and the conditions under which Brazilian agribusiness either compounds its global position or accumulates liabilities that constrain it.