Brazil’s Count Is Paused: What Happens Next
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 4:58 p.m. ET · Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Supreme Federal Court (STF), TSE results feed, Polymarket
Key Facts
- Polymarket Polymarket, a prediction market where traders bet money on outcomes, priced a Flávio Bolsonaro win at about 65% (4:51 p.m. ET Sunday), down from a peak of 83.9% (7:45 p.m. ET Saturday). A price of 65 cents means an implied 65% chance; it is not an official forecast. Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 65% and Kalshi at 66% (Lula: 35% and 34%), as of 25 October, 5:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- The extension Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting extended nationwide to 7 p.m. in Brasília (6 p.m. ET, 10 p.m. Lisbon).
- The count The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s top election authority, paused its national count at 5:20 p.m. in Brasília (4:20 p.m. ET). The TSE said votes already cast are not cancelled.
- The requests Lula’s coalition cited reduced bus services. We have not seen the court filing itself.
- Count so far The TSE results feed showed 0.25% of votes counted before the pause: 1,225 polling sections, from five states only.
- Voting machines The TSE replaced 900 of 499,248 electronic voting machines (0.18%) by noon Brasília time and logged 138 incidents, as we reported at 3:03 p.m. ET.
- Restart The TSE has not announced when counting resumes.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every 20 minutes from 5 p.m. Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 65.2% · Lula 34.5% (US$202 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 66% · Lula 34%
As of 25 October, 5:40 pm ET (21:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Two things happened side by side on Sunday afternoon in Brazil’s presidential runoff: voting was extended by two hours and the national count was paused, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds on Polymarket fell from 83.9% on Saturday evening to about 65% by 4:51 p.m. ET. They coincided in time; none of the sources we reviewed links one to the other, and official results come only from the TSE, as our Brazil election results page shows.
The events are part of the Brazil election 2026 runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Our earlier report on the count pause has the first details; this explainer adds the background.
What Polymarket Shows
Polymarket’s public price history for the “Flávio Bolsonaro wins” contract peaked at 83.9% at 7:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, 24 October. On Sunday it stood near 82% at 1:30 p.m. ET, 71% at 4:15 p.m. ET and about 65% at 4:51 p.m. ET, a fall of roughly 19 percentage points from the peak and about 17 points since early afternoon.
The decline began before the Supreme Court order, which became public at 4:11 p.m. ET, so the timing alone does not show what traders reacted to. Prices are bets, not polls, and our Brazil election odds page tracks them live.
What Justice Zanin Ordered
Zanin, a justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s highest court, ordered the electoral courts to keep polling sections open for two hours more in every state, until 7 p.m. in Brasília (6 p.m. ET). The ruling became public at 4:11 p.m. ET (5:11 p.m. in Brasília).
The order was issued in a reclamação, a filing in which a party tells the STF that one of its earlier rulings is not being respected. The coalition backing Lula named Salvador, Feira de Santana and Lauro de Freitas in Bahia state, argued that transport there fell short of an STF precedent on election-day transport, and Zanin cited the seriousness of the facts and the urgency before extending the order nationwide.
Who Asked and Why
The coalition backing Lula cited reports of fewer buses and long travel times for voters in several regions. In São Paulo, a court order required the full bus fleet to run, while the request said only about 60% was operating; these are claims in the request, and we have not verified them.
We have not seen the court filings. We describe here only the request from the coalition backing Lula.
Why the Vote Count Stopped
The TSE said in a note that the count was paused because of Zanin’s decision. The TSE said the suspension “does not mean cancellation of votes registered in the ballot boxes,” and announced the pause at 5:20 p.m. in Brasília (4:20 p.m. ET).
Before the pause, the TSE results feed showed 345,054 votes counted in 1,225 sections, about 0.25% of the total (335,743 valid votes, according to the TSE feed), from Goiás, Bahia, Maranhão, Pará and Ceará only. A sample that small and that uneven says little about the national picture.
A Question of Who Decides
Requests to extend voting normally go to the TSE, and this order came from the Supreme Court instead. The coalition backing Lula had first turned to the TSE.
What It Means for Results Tonight
With voting open until 6 p.m. ET (10 p.m. Lisbon), no national result can come before then, and the TSE has not said when counting resumes. Official figures appear only on the TSE’s results site.
The TSE says votes already cast stay valid, and none of the reports we reviewed describes lost ballots or irregularities in the count. Whether two extra hours changes turnout, or the result, is not known, and no source we reviewed says so.
What It Means for US Readers
The pause pushes the first national numbers later into Sunday evening. Brazilian stock and currency markets are closed for the weekend, but US-listed Brazilian shares and the real can react when results arrive; our guide to the Brazil runoff date explains how results are published.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said when counting resumes. We do not know how many voters were kept from the polls, and no court has tested the bus claims.
We also do not know what moved the Polymarket price, which fell during the same hours. Reports of other disruptions, such as replaced voting machines, were not confirmed by two independent outlets and are not included.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Our Coverage of Election Day
Earlier on Sunday we reported that the TSE replaced 900 voting machines by noon, and that the court’s president acknowledged gaps in voter bus transport in Bahia. We then reported that the Lula campaign asked to extend voting hours because of bus cuts, and that Justice Zanin extended voting and the TSE paused its count.
Follow the count on our live results page, and see Polymarket and Kalshi odds and the poll average.
Background: Brazil Tax Reform 2026 Replaces Five Taxes With Two VATs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the TSE pause Brazil’s vote count?
Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting until 6 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Brasília), and the TSE paused its count because of that decision. It says no votes are cancelled.
What happened to Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds on Polymarket?
His price fell from a peak of 83.9% (7:45 p.m. ET Saturday) to about 65% (4:51 p.m. ET Sunday). Prices are bets, not polls, and no source we reviewed says what caused the move.
Who asked for the extension?
The coalition backing Lula cited reduced bus services. We have not seen the court filings.
When will Brazil’s results be known?
Voting runs to 6 p.m. ET and the TSE has not said when counting resumes. Official results appear only on the TSE’s results site.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) statements, 25 October 2026; Supreme Federal Court (STF) ruling by Justice Cristiano Zanin, 25 October 2026; Polymarket price history; TSE results site.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief