Lula Leads 13 States, Flávio 13, in Brazil Runoff
Published Sunday, 25 October 2026, 8:51 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results files
Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leftist incumbent, ahead in 13 of Brazil’s 26 states and among voters abroad, and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, ahead in 13 states and the Federal District (the area around the capital, Brasília), with 99.96% of polling sections (groups of voting machines) counted at 9:51 p.m. Brasília time (8:51 p.m. ET) on Sunday 25 October. The TSE had not yet marked a winner of the national race.
Key Facts
- —Map Lula leads in 13 states and abroad; Flávio Bolsonaro leads in 13 states and the Federal District, at 99.96% of sections counted.
- —Swing state Minas Gerais flipped: Flávio led it by 4.9 points on 4 October, Lula now leads by 99,621 votes.
- —Regions The Northeast gives Lula about 13.6 million net votes; the South gives Flávio about 4.6 million.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, prices Lula to carry Minas Gerais at 99.1% (US$59,922 traded, 8:50 p.m. ET).
Live results
Follow Brazil’s runoff count on our results page
Official TSE numbers, state by state, as soon as the electoral court publishes them.
This split is the geography behind the Brazil election 2026 runoff, and our Brazil election results page carries the live count. For the national picture, see the runoff results report and the Brazil election polls tracker.
In Plain English
- State: one of Brazil’s 26 states; the Federal District around Brasília, the capital, counts as a separate federal unit.
- Share: the percentage of valid votes, which excludes blank and null ballots.
- Section: a group of voting machines in one polling place; the TSE counts progress by section.
- Regions: North, Northeast, Center-West (Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and the Federal District), Southeast and South are Brazil’s five official regions; net votes means the margin between the two candidates.
Where Lula Leads
Lula’s strongest states are in the Northeast, Brazil’s poorest region: Piauí 75.9%, Bahia 71.3%, Maranhão 69.5%, Sergipe 69.5%, Pernambuco 69.2%.He also leads in Minas Gerais (50.4%) and, in the North, in Pará (55.0%), Amazonas (54.0%) and Amapá (52.9%), and among voters abroad (53.6%, with 96.97% of overseas sections counted).
Where Flávio Bolsonaro Leads
Flávio’s strongest states by vote share are in the South, the Center-West and the far North: Roraima 72.5%, Rondônia 69.6%, Santa Catarina 69.4%, Acre 66.6%, Mato Grosso 66.1%. Together the South, Southeast and Center-West give him about 9.3 million net votes.
In the three largest states he leads in São Paulo (53.9%) by 2,019,904 votes and in Rio de Janeiro (53.1%) by 603,616. Lula’s lead in Minas Gerais, the third, is 99,621 votes.
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+0.47%
205,082.56
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69,879.62
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10,746.36
-0.31%
3,017,221
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2,540.10
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
The Closest States
Four places are within about 100,000 votes: abroad, where Lula leads by 26,353, Amapá, where Lula leads by 24,294, Tocantins, where Flávio leads by 24,954, and Minas Gerais, where Lula leads by 99,621. Amapá and Tocantins are fully counted, and the sections still out in Minas Gerais hold fewer registered voters than Lula’s lead.
Minas Gerais is the one state that changed sides. In the first round on 4 October Flávio led it with 48.2% against Lula’s 43.3%; now Lula leads with 50.40% against 49.60%.
How It Compares With 2022
In the 2022 runoff Lula also won Minas Gerais narrowly, on his way to a national win by 2,139,645 votes over then-president Jair Bolsonaro. This year Lula leads nationally by about 4.4 million votes (51.8% to 48.2%), roughly twice that gap, though the TSE has not marked a winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders priced Lula to carry Minas Gerais at 99.1% (US$59,922 traded), Pará at 99.0% (US$182,690), Amazonas at 98.5% (US$179,910) and Amapá at 97.9% (US$979,364), at 8:50 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October. These are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why It Matters for the US
Brazil’s Northeast voted heavily for Lula, while the South, Center-West and São Paulo voted for Flávio. US investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and ADRs (US-listed shares of foreign companies) will watch how easily the next government can pass its budget in a country split this way.
What Is Not Known
The TSE had not marked a winner when this snapshot was taken, and totals will move slightly as the last sections arrive. Overseas sections still uncounted could hold more registered voters than Lula’s lead abroad of 26,353 votes, so we do not call that vote final.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which states did Lula win in the Brazil runoff?
At 8:51 p.m. ET Lula led in Alagoas, Amapá, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe, plus abroad.
Which states did Flávio Bolsonaro win?
He led in Acre, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia, Roraima, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, São Paulo and Tocantins, plus the Federal District.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results files; Polymarket prediction-market prices. Data as of 8:51 p.m. ET, Sunday 25 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff: date, poll closing times and when results start. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.