BRAZIL · ELECTION
Published Sunday, 25 October, 9:58 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazilian government, US Trade Representative, Brazil trade ministry, central bank
Key Facts
- The result Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a lead of 4,429,907 votes, with all polling sections counted; the formal declaration is still to come.
- The dates Diplomas are due by 18 December; Lula takes office on 5 January 2027.
- The limit The Liberal Party (PL), Flávio Bolsonaro’s party, holds 121 of 513 Chamber seats, the most of any party.
- The map Seven of South America’s 12 states have right-leaning presidents; Brazil is the largest left-of-centre exception.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.1% · Lula 100% (US$247 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 10:20 pm ET (02:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Lula won the Brazil election runoff on Sunday 25 October, taking 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, with 99.99% of polling sections counted. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that runs and certifies the vote, has not yet issued its formal declaration, which would give Lula a fourth term overall.
That is 64.26 million votes to 59.83 million, a gap of 4,429,907 votes, or 3.6 percentage points. The country is split almost evenly; see our live count and the state-by-state results map for the numbers.
The Formal Steps
The TSE’s formal declaration is still to come; the court then issues the president-elect’s diploma, called the diplomação, and its official 2026 calendar sets 18 December as the deadline. Lula takes office on 5 January 2027, the date fixed by Constitutional Amendment 111 of 2021, and new senators and deputies sit on 1 February.
A 2002 law, Law 10.609, entitles a president-elect to a transition team with a coordinator and 50 temporary posts. We found no announced coordinator or cabinet appointment when we published.
What Congress Will Allow
In the 4 October first round, the PL won 121 of the 513 Chamber seats, up from 99 in 2022, according to the TSE count, making it the largest party; Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) is second. On one political-science classification, right-leaning parties hold about 276 seats, short of the 308 votes needed to amend the constitution.
The swing group is the Centrão, a bloc of centre-right parties that trade votes for posts and budget funds. Two of them, the Progressistas (PP) and União Brasil, have held ministries under Lula and do not always vote with the PL.
The first test is the 2027 budget bill, sent on 31 August with a primary surplus target (the budget balance before interest payments) of 0.5% of GDP, about R$73.2 billion, and a projected effective result near 0.1% once court-ordered payments are excluded. The Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s top court, stays the referee between branches; it convicted Jair Bolsonaro in 2025 of plotting a coup.
Economy and Markets
Brazilian markets reopen on Monday at 10 a.m. Brasília time (9 a.m. ET). On Friday 23 October the Ibovespa, the main stock index, closed at 205,083 points and the real at 4.9654 per dollar.
The central bank’s Focus survey, its weekly poll of economists, put 2026 inflation at 5.22%, above the 4.5% ceiling of the target, with the Selic benchmark interest rate expected at 13.25% at the end of 2026 (survey published 19 October). The central bank sets the Selic independently of the president.
Alone in Its Own Neighbourhood?
Count the presidents. Seven of South America’s 12 states are led by the right: Argentina (Javier Milei), Bolivia (Rodrigo Paz), Chile (José Antonio Kast), Colombia (Abelardo de la Espriella, since 7 August), Ecuador (Daniel Noboa), Paraguay (Santiago Peña) and Peru (Keiko Fujimori, since 28 July); the classification is ours, from their official inaugurations.
Brazil and Uruguay, under Yamandú Orsi, are the two centre-left governments. Venezuela is run by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, who works with Washington after the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in January, and Mexico under Claudia Sheinbaum is the other large left-wing government.
So the plain fact is that Brazil is the biggest left-of-centre government in a region that has swung right, and Milei called Lula a “communist dictator” at a Washington gala in mid-October. The real question is whether that makes Brazil a lonely target or a necessary partner.
Isolation or Leverage?
The isolation case starts with security. The Shield of the Americas, a US-led anti-cartel coalition launched on 7 March 2026 in Doral, Florida, drew leaders from Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, Guyana and six other states, and Peru said in September it would join; Brazil was not among them, and the US designated Brazil’s Red Command and First Capital Command gangs as foreign terrorist organisations from 5 June, a label Lula rejects.
The leverage case is that Brazil cannot be walked around: Uruguay chairs Mercosur, South America’s trade bloc, until December and Orsi holds the rotating presidency of CELAC, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, and Lula has offered Trump a joint organised-crime plan. We found no published study that tests either reading, so treat both as arguments, not findings.
Who Won the Geopolitics?
Washington won most of the region but not its biggest country, and the case that it quietly lost is simple: Trump’s endorsed candidate won Colombia in June, yet tariffs and open sympathy for Flávio did not deliver Brazil. Brazil’s trade ministry says China took 28.7% of Brazilian exports in 2025, against 10.8% for the United States.
The case against is that Washington still holds the cards: a 25% tariff under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 on certain Brazilian goods took effect on 22 July, and the gang designation as foreign terrorist organisations stands. Celso Amorim, Lula’s foreign-policy adviser, said in an interview published on 22 October that Trump would respect a Lula win in practice; we found no White House statement on the result when we published.
Europe offers the other door. The EU-Mercosur agreement, signed on 17 January 2026, has applied provisionally since 1 May while a review by the EU Court of Justice is pending; Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney, of the centrist Liberal Party, is negotiating its own Mercosur deal, and Foreign Minister Anita Anand wants it before the end of 2026.
Some analysts argue that US tariffs push Europe, Canada and Brazil together as middle powers; we found no study that proves it, and Europe is itself divided over the Mercosur deal. Beijing, Brazil’s largest customer, had made no public statement on the runoff that we could find, so what China gains from a Lula term remains an open question.
How the Opposition Reacts
When we published, we found no public statement on the result from Flávio Bolsonaro, his campaign or Jair Bolsonaro. We will update this article when the PL speaks.
What Could Go Wrong
The margin is 3.6 points, and claims about the vote circulated before and during the count. Our fact-check, Brazil vote dispute: claims and facts, sets out what is claimed, what the TSE says and what is verified.
A divided country, a Congress where the PL leads and a tariff dispute with Washington could each slow Lula’s first year. A weak budget would test investors first.
What to Watch
- Monday 26 October, 9 a.m. ET: the first trading session for the real and the Ibovespa after the result.
- Any concession or challenge from Flávio Bolsonaro and the PL.
- Lula’s transition coordinator and finance minister.
- The 2027 budget vote and talks with the US Trade Representative on the 25% tariff.
- 18 December: diploma deadline; 5 January 2027: inauguration.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief