Flávio 50.3%, Lula 49.7% in Brazil Runoff, 37% Counted
Updated 2 times · Latest: 25 October 2026
Published Sunday, 25 October 2026, 7:05 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results file, data as of 7:15 p.m. ET
Brazil’s runoff has no winner yet: conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50.30% of valid votes (votes for a candidate) to 49.70% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 37.40% of polling sections counted, the electoral court (TSE) said at 7:15 p.m. ET on Sunday. The count is not final.
Key Facts
- —Count Conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro 23,179,030 votes (50.30%), President Lula 22,904,371 (49.70%), at 7:15 p.m. ET.
- —Progress 186,697 of 499,248 polling sections (voting-station groups) counted, 37.40%; not final.
- —Gap 274,659 votes separate the two candidates, out of 46,083,401 valid votes so far.
- —Next Sections in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are still largely uncounted.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 9% and Kalshi at 10% (Lula: 91% and 91%), as of 25 October, 7:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Live results
Follow Brazil’s runoff count on our results page
Official TSE numbers, state by state, refreshed as the electoral court publishes them.
Brazil is choosing its president in the final round of the Brazil election 2026, and the early official count is a near tie between Lula, the left-wing president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator. Flávio Bolsonaro has 23,179,030 votes and Lula 22,904,371, based on 37.40% of sections.
Our Brazil runoff date guide explains how the count unfolds. Earlier polling is in our Brazil election polls tracker, and the betting markets are in our Brazil election odds report.
In Plain English
- Runoff: the second round between the top two candidates, held because nobody won more than half of the valid votes on 4 October.
- Valid votes: votes for a candidate, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots.
- TSE: the Superior Electoral Court, Brazil’s election authority, which publishes the official results.
Where the Count Stands
The TSE had counted 186,697 of 499,248 polling sections nationwide when it last updated its results file at 20:15 Brasília time (one hour ahead of US Eastern). It had registered 46,083,401 valid votes, plus 499,865 blank and 936,873 spoiled ballots.
Flávio Bolsonaro holds 50.30% and Lula 49.70%. A candidate needs more than half of the valid votes to win, so a gap of 274,659 votes is small next to the uncounted vote.
The early numbers are uneven. Lula leads in northeastern states such as Bahia (70.21%) and Pernambuco (71.73%), where about 15% and 28% of sections are counted.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads in the South and in São Paulo (58.52%, 13% counted) and Rio de Janeiro (55.42%, 3% counted), while Minas Gerais is split almost evenly with 30% counted.
Who Is Who
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, is 81 and leads the Workers’ Party (PT), which is on the left. He has been president since 2023 and is seeking a fourth term in office.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, represents Rio de Janeiro in the Senate for the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Why It Matters for the US
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a major supplier of oil, iron ore and coffee. US investors hold Brazil through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), a fund tracking Brazilian shares, and through US-listed shares of Petrobras (PBR) and Vale (VALE).
Markets are closed on Sunday. On Friday those three closed at US$42.59, US$26.16 and US$12.40, and the real, Brazil’s currency, was quoted near 5.00 per US dollar on Sunday evening, according to RT, a financial data provider.
The first reaction comes when São Paulo’s exchange reopens on Monday 26 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, and Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), price the race below.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.8% · Lula 90.9% (US$215 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 10% · Lula 90.6%
As of 25 October, 7:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Happens Next
The TSE keeps publishing official figures as sections report. The winner is due to take office on 5 January 2027, after the court certifies the result in December.
What Is Not Known
We do not know who will win. We also do not know how the uncounted sections in São Paulo, Rio and elsewhere will split, and the TSE has not said when the count will be complete.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is winning Brazil’s runoff?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the official count with 50.30% of valid votes against 49.70% for Lula, at 7:15 p.m. ET, with 37.40% of polling sections counted. The electoral court has not declared a winner, and the gap can change as more votes arrive.
When will Brazil’s winner be known?
The electoral court (TSE) announces the winner once the count settles the result, and it has not done so yet. Our live results page shows each update from the official feed as it arrives.
Sources
Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results portal · RT market data · Polymarket and Kalshi prices
More on Brazil: Brazil hub.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief