LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 2 Nov

Prediction Markets: Latin America and Africa

Bettors have turned firmly against a Brazil rate cut: they now give a pause 82.6%, up from about 58% a week ago.

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction exchange, gives 82.6% to Brazil’s central bank holding its interest rate steady on Wednesday 4 November. Economists in the central bank’s weekly Focus survey leaned the other way, with a median forecast of a quarter-point cut to 13.50% in answers up to 23 October.

The gap matters to US readers because Brazil’s rate sets what its bonds, loans and currency pay, and US investors hold all three through bonds, funds and US-listed shares. This report covers 26 October to 2 November across Latin America and Africa.

It shows what moved, what comes next and how far to trust each price. Every price below is a bet, not a poll.

What Prediction Markets Say

Prediction markets are exchanges where people buy and sell contracts on future events, and a price of 60 cents means the crowd gives that outcome roughly a 60% chance. We read the prices below on 2 November 2026, 5:45 am Eastern Time (ET), and volume means the total money traded in that market since it opened.

• Brazil central bank, 4 November (Polymarket, US$126,157): no change 82.6%, quarter-point (25 basis point) cut 17.5%, every other outcome 0.3% or less.
• Brazil central bank, 9 December (Polymarket, US$51,488): no change 67.5%, quarter-point cut 25.0%.
• Mexico central bank, 5 November (Polymarket, US$182,764): no change 90.0%, quarter-point cut 10.8%.
• Venezuela’s head of state on 31 December (Polymarket, US$99.3 million): Nicolás Maduro, the country’s ousted longtime leader, 84.0%, and Delcy Rodríguez, its acting president, 10.5%.
• Maduro’s prison sentence (Polymarket, US$1.05 million): no prison time 42.0%, 60 years or more 38.5%, under 20 years 9.4%.
• South Africa’s 2026 inflation above 5.0% (Polymarket, US$107,601 in the whole market, US$29,590 on this outcome): 67.6%.
• Nigeria’s next president (Polymarket, US$144,482): President Bola Tinubu 67.5%, Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party candidate, 22.0%, former vice president Atiku Abubakar 8.1%, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former Kano state governor, 5.4%.
• Argentina’s 2027 president (Polymarket, US$1.22 million): President Javier Milei 43.5%, Buenos Aires province Governor Axel Kicillof 28.5%, former minister Sergio Massa 15.0%.
• Which African leader leaves office next (Kalshi, a US exchange regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC; last trade prices, 24,690 contracts traded): Tinubu 20%, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa 11%, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 8%. Each line is a separate contract, so prices need not add to 100%.

Polymarket is a crypto-based platform, while Kalshi is the one regulated in the US by the CFTC. Both publish prices that anyone can read for free.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

The Week’s Biggest Moves

Brazil: bettors drop the rate-cut idea

Polymarket’s price for no change at the 4 November meeting rose from 57.8% in our 26 October report to 82.6%, while a quarter-point cut slid from 24.5% to 17.5%. Since 25 October, the day of Brazil’s presidential runoff, a cut has fallen from about 80% and a pause has risen from about 18%.

The central bank’s weekly Focus survey of economists still pointed to a cut in answers up to 23 October, with a median of 13.50% for the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark rate, after the November meeting and 13.25% at year end. The Selic stands at 13.75% today, and the next Focus survey is due on Tuesday 3 November.

We found no central bank statement or data release that explains the swing, which began on the days of the runoff. A pause is also not certain, because only a US$126,157 market stands behind the 82.6%.

Our earlier report, Brazil Bettors See 60% Chance of Rate Hold, covered the pause price on 26 October. It has risen since.

Venezuela: sentence odds jump for Maduro

Polymarket’s price that Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s ousted longtime leader, receives 60 years or more in prison rose from 21.5% to 38.5%. The price for no prison time fell from 54.5% to 42.0%.

Maduro is held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, on drug-trafficking charges that include narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy. Prosecutors added a conspiracy to commit torture charge in October, according to court reports.

On Wednesday 28 October the judge in the case, Alvin Hellerstein, died aged 92, and the case went to Judge Analisa Torres. Maduro’s trial had been set for 14 June 2027, and it is not yet known whether that date will hold.

The judge’s death came in the same week, but we cannot show that it moved the market. The market settles on the first sentence handed down, so it is unlikely to pay out before the trial ends.

Venezuela: the year-end leader market

Polymarket’s market on who is Venezuela’s head of state on 31 December is the most traded one we track for Latin America and Africa, with about US$407,000 changing hands in seven days by Polymarket’s own count. Maduro rose from 75.8% to 84.0%, and Delcy Rodríguez fell from 20.5% to 10.5%.

The rules pay out to whoever is formally in office as head of state on 31 December. Maduro is in custody, so we cannot explain his 84.0% or see what traders are betting on.

See Venezuela Silent on Rebel Camp Strike Claim for our latest Venezuela report. We found no event that explains the market move.

South Africa: inflation bets cool

Polymarket’s price that South Africa’s 2026 inflation ends above 5.0% fell from 79.3% to 67.6%. The market is thinly traded, since only US$29,590 backs that outcome and about US$1,700 changed hands this week.

Statistics South Africa, the national statistics office, reported 4.5% for September, up from 4.4% in August. The market settles on the December reading, due on 20 January 2027.

We found no new data release behind this week’s move. Related: South Africa Producer Prices Jump to 6.2%.

Cuba: regime-change bets ease

Polymarket’s price that Cuba’s government falls in 2026 slid from 13.5% to 8.5%. About US$1.84 million has traded in that market overall, but only about US$6,400 this week.

Related Cuba markets: a US-Cuba military clash in 2026 at 12.5% (US$286,993), a US-Cuba economic deal by 31 December at 11.5% (thin, US$35,108 on that outcome) and former leader Raúl Castro in US custody by 31 December at 4.8% (thin). We found no event behind the slide; see US Visa Curbs on Cubans Remain in Force for the latest US-Cuba policy report.

Latin America

Mexico: Polymarket gives 90.0% to no change at Banxico’s decision on Thursday 5 November and 10.8% to a quarter-point cut. The no-change price is close to the 90.5% in our last report, on about US$183,000 in volume.

Mexico’s statistics office, INEGI, estimated third-quarter growth of 0.9% from the previous quarter, as covered in Mexico Economy Grows 0.9% in Third Quarter. The bank’s decision follows on Thursday.

Colombia: the central bank, Banco de la República, held its rate at 12.25% on Friday 30 October, according to its own communiqué. Our last report showed Polymarket giving 51.5% to a hold and 39.5% to a quarter-point rise.

Argentina: Milei’s price for the 2027 presidency slipped from 46.5% to 43.5% and Kicillof’s from 29.5% to 28.5%. On 2026 inflation, Polymarket gives 71.8% to a rate of 30.0% to 34.9% and 18.0% to 25% to 29.9%, a thin market with US$88,785 traded in total.

Brazil inflation: Polymarket gives 50.0% to 2026 inflation of 5.00% to 5.49% and about 30% to 5.50% to 5.99%, on US$198,813 in total. The central bank’s Focus survey median is about 5.2%, inside the leading bracket.

Brazil 2030: on Kalshi, the party of the 2030 president is priced PT (President Lula’s Workers’ Party) 30%, PL (former president Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party) 22% and Republicanos (a conservative party) 22%. That rests on only 7,756 contracts, so it is a rough guide.

Venezuela’s vote: Polymarket gives 33.0% to a presidential election being scheduled by 31 March 2027. That outcome is thinly traded.

Africa

Nigeria: Tinubu’s price for the next presidency eased from 68.5% to 67.5% and Obi’s from 24.0% to 22.0%. Kwankwaso, a former Kano state governor, jumped from 0.4% to 5.4% on only US$6,899, so treat that as thinly traded.

Voting is set for Saturday 16 January 2027, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). See Nigeria Upholds 66 Candidate Complaints.

South Africa: Polymarket gives Helen Zille, a former premier of Western Cape province, 56.5% to become Johannesburg’s next mayor, with Herman Mashaba, a businessman and former mayor of the city, at about 9%. The market holds US$137,033, but only about US$650 changed hands this week.

Mali: Polymarket gives 29.5% to junta leader Assimi Goïta leaving office by 30 June 2027, unchanged from our last report, on a small US$63,614 market. Ethiopia and Sudan: a Polymarket price for Eritrea invading Ethiopia by 31 December slipped from 14.5% to 13.5%, and a Sudan ceasefire by 31 December fell from 12.5% to 9.0%, each on about US$120,000.

Decisions Ahead

• Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections, which decide control of the US Senate. That is one leg of a Polymarket combination bet on Brazil’s president, Israel’s next sworn-in prime minister and the Senate, and the Israeli leg waits for coalition talks to end. Brazil’s central bank also publishes its Focus survey.
• Wednesday 4 November: Brazil’s central bank announces its rate decision after a two-day meeting, with the statement expected around 6:30 pm Brasília time (4:30 pm ET). South Africa also holds local elections that day, including the Johannesburg mayor race, where mayors are chosen by the new councils.
• Thursday 5 November: Banxico announces Mexico’s rate decision, per economic calendars, with bettors pointing to no change at 6.50%.
• Thursday 12 November: Argentina publishes October inflation, and a Polymarket market gives 49.0% to a monthly rate of 1.6% to 1.8% and 40.0% to 1.9% to 2.1%.
• Wednesday 9 December: Brazil’s central bank decides again, after the November meeting.
• Saturday 16 January 2027: Nigeria’s presidential election.

What It Means for US Readers

A pause in Brazil would keep the Selic at 13.75%, while economists surveyed by the central bank still expected a cut at the last count. Holders of Brazilian bonds, the real and US-listed Brazilian shares should watch 4 November, because a surprise in either direction can move all three.

The Venezuela and Cuba markets show how US policy and courts now shape bets in Latin America. They are volatile, and a single large trade can move them.

What Is Not Known

We do not know why Brazil’s rate odds, the Cuba price or the South Africa inflation price moved, because we found no official event behind them. Most markets here hold under US$200,000 in total, so a few traders could be responsible.

We do not know whether Maduro’s 14 June 2027 trial date will hold after the judge’s death. We also cannot say what Brazil’s central bank will do, since its committee has not yet met.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are prediction markets saying about Brazil’s interest rate?

Polymarket gives 82.6% to no change on 4 November and 17.5% to a quarter-point cut. In our 26 October report the pause stood at 57.8%.

Do prediction markets and economists agree on Brazil’s rate?

No. The central bank’s Focus survey, in answers up to 23 October, had a median forecast of a quarter-point cut to 13.50%, while bettors favour no change.

What are the odds on Maduro’s prison sentence?

Polymarket gives 42.0% to no prison time and 38.5% to 60 years or more. His trial was set for 14 June 2027, but the judge died on 28 October and the case was reassigned.

Which Latin America and Africa market is traded most?

Polymarket’s market on Venezuela’s head of state on 31 December, with about US$407,000 traded in seven days. Maduro is the favourite at 84.0%.

Are prediction market prices reliable?

They are bets, not polls, and a 20% outcome happens one time in five. Thin markets can be moved by a few traders, so we label them and show them next to official data.

More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief