Argentina’s MERVAL Surges as Technical Support Holds, Outpacing Regional Peers

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL index closed at 2,202,667 points on June 10, 2025, gaining 4.33% in a single session, according to official exchange data.

The rally followed a week of heavy selling and a sharp test of critical support levels. The move came with high trading volume, signaling renewed risk appetite after a period of uncertainty.

Market participants saw the MERVAL rebound from an intraday low of 2,111,197, a level that aligns with the 200-day simple moving average and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart.

This technical confluence provided a strong base for buyers, who pushed the index above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages by session end. The price action formed a bullish engulfing candle, a common reversal signal, and closed near the session high of 2,218,181.

On the four-hour chart, the MERVAL also bounced from the 200-period moving average but met resistance at the 2,218,000 level. The index failed to break through the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting some overbought conditions in the short term.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings moved from oversold to neutral, confirming a shift in momentum but not yet indicating overheating. The MACD histogram turned positive, supporting the view of a short-term trend reversal.

Volume surged above recent averages, confirming the validity of the move. The market’s price-to-earnings ratio stood at 12.7, considered fair for Argentina and slightly above the Latin American average of 10.4. This valuation reflects moderate optimism but not exuberance.

The day’s biggest winners included Celulosa Argentina, which soared on strong materials demand, and YPF, which rebounded following recent losses in the energy sector.

Telecom Argentina and Grupo Financiero Galicia also posted notable gains, benefiting from sector rotation and improved sentiment in financials and telecoms.

On the losing side, Compañía de Transporte de Energía Eléctrica en Alta Tensión Transener dropped sharply, reflecting ongoing weakness in utilities. Compared to regional peers, the MERVAL’s performance outpaced Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s IPC, which both saw modest gains.

Latin American equities have gained over 21% in dollar terms this year, but Argentina’s market has lagged on a year-to-date basis, down 6.12% since January. Despite this, the MERVAL’s rebound stands out in a region benefiting from policy reform and renewed investor interest.

ETF flows into Argentina remained positive, with the ARGT ETF trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This indicates sustained foreign interest, even as global investors remain cautious about liquidity and credit ratings.

In summary, the MERVAL’s sharp rebound reflects the importance of technical support and renewed risk appetite. The move remains grounded in fundamentals, with valuations and volume supporting the price action.

Investors continue to watch for confirmation of a sustained trend reversal as the index approaches key resistance levels.