Argentina’s MERVAL Sinks as Technical Barriers Hold, Exporters Lead Losses

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL Index closed at 2,111,196.88 on June 10, 2025, marking another day of losses as the market continued its downward slide.

The latest session saw the index fall 0.53%, extending a trend that has dominated much of 2025. Official market data and charts show that the MERVAL has lost over 16% since the start of the year, reversing the explosive gains of 2024.

The story behind these numbers is rooted in both technical and fundamental realities. The daily and four-hour charts reveal that the index remains firmly below all major moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-day lines.

The 200-day moving average, in particular, has acted as a ceiling since April, with the market now failing for the fourth time to reclaim this level. On the four-hour chart, the index trades beneath the Ichimoku cloud and all short-term moving averages.

The 9-period moving average continues to reject any upward moves, acting as a gatekeeper and reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show the price hugging the lower band, while volume remains moderate, confirming the lack of buying conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings hover near oversold territory, but not low enough to suggest an imminent reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, with no clear sign of a bullish crossover.

These indicators, alongside persistent failures at resistance, suggest that sellers still control the market. Export-oriented companies led the decline, reflecting the impact of new U.S. tariffs and a volatile peso.

Official data highlights Tenaris and Aluar as top losers, down 15% and 30% year-to-date, respectively, due to reduced export earnings. Transportadora de Gas del Sur dropped 9.6% in the last 24 hours, while Grupo Supervielle and Metrogas lost 5.8% and 5.6%.

On the winning side, only a handful of stocks managed to post gains, with some consumer and utility names up between 3% and 6% on moderate volume. Peer markets in Latin America showed mixed results. Brazil’s Bovespa edged higher, while Chile’s IPSA remained flat.

Compared to these, Argentina’s MERVAL stands out for its sharp reversal and technical weakness. ETF flows reflect this sentiment, with inflows into Argentina-focused funds slowing sharply after record highs in late 2024.

The market’s struggle to break above the 200-day moving average signals a critical crossroads. If the index fails to reclaim this level soon, further declines are likely. With no technical or fundamental catalyst in sight, and with export leaders under pressure, traders remain cautious.

The next sessions will test whether the MERVAL can find support or if the bearish trend will deepen, setting the tone for Argentina’s equities in the months ahead.