ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What is happening The Universidad de San Andrés, a private university near Buenos Aires, estimates Argentina’s output fell 2.66% from July to September. Two straight quarterly falls make a technical recession.
- —Why it matters A second quarterly fall would challenge the recovery story of President Javier Milei, a libertarian, about a year before the 2027 presidential election.
- —The numbers The model’s likely range is a fall of 2.52% to 2.80%. Official data show output down 0.6% in April to June and up 0.1% in August.
- —Who is who INDEC is Argentina’s national statistics institute, and Luis Caputo is Milei’s Economy Minister. Paula Margaretic directs the university centre that runs the estimate.
- —What to watch Next come the university update on Friday, 30 October, September activity data on Tuesday, 24 November, and the official third-quarter figure on Wednesday, 16 December.
- —Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you Holders of Argentine dollar bonds and New York-listed Argentine shares get an early growth warning, but it is a model estimate and may change.
A university model says Argentina’s economy shrank 2.66% in the third quarter. The official figure arrives on 16 December.
A university near Buenos Aires flags an Argentina recession risk, estimating that output fell 2.66% from July to September. Two straight quarterly falls make a technical recession, and the official third-quarter figure is due on Wednesday, 16 December.
The estimate comes from the Universidad de San Andrés and is a model, not official data. For US investors it tests the growth story behind Argentina’s dollar bonds and New York-listed shares.
What the Argentina Recession Risk Says
The Universidad de San Andrés publishes a weekly estimate of Argentina’s output, called a nowcast. Each Friday its model blends 29 indicators, such as cement shipments, jobs and imports, into one reading of the current quarter.
The report of Friday, 23 October puts July-to-September output 2.66% below the April-to-June quarter, after seasonal adjustment. The model’s likely range is a fall of 2.52% to 2.80%, which the university says is not a formal confidence interval.
A week earlier the same model showed a fall of 2.07%. The estimate moved down 0.58 points in the week INDEC published its weak August activity figure.
The central bank’s September survey of forecasters, known as the REM, expects a smaller fall of 0.95%. The university’s own report puts its estimate 1.71 points below that survey.
What the Official Data Show
INDEC, the national statistics institute, said on Thursday, 17 September that output fell 0.6% in the second quarter. That was the first quarterly fall after four straight rises.
INDEC’s monthly activity index, known as the EMAE, fell 2.8% in July and rose only 0.1% in August. Against August 2025, activity was down 1.7%.
Over January to August, activity is still 1.2% above a year earlier. INDEC’s smoothed trend line was flat in August, which Economy Minister Luis Caputo noted when he posted the data.
A calculation from INDEC’s seasonally adjusted figures shows how deep the hole is. If September only repeats August, the third quarter averages about 2.8% below the second.
To avoid any quarterly fall, September activity would have to jump about 8.6% in one month. The biggest monthly rise in INDEC’s series since January 2023 is 2.7%.
What the Government Says
President Javier Milei, a libertarian in office since December 2023, faces a presidential election in 2027. Economy Minister Luis Caputo posted the August figures on Wednesday, 21 October, and noted that the trend line was unchanged.
No official response to the university estimate was public when this was written. Official September data arrive on Tuesday, 24 November, and the third-quarter figure on Wednesday, 16 December.
What It Means for US Readers
Argentina’s credit rating is below investment grade, so holders of its dollar bonds watch growth and tax income closely. Weaker activity usually cuts tax revenue, which matters for a government that has made a balanced budget its main goal.
New York-listed Argentine shares also trade on the growth story. For background, read the central bank forecaster survey and Caputo’s answer on recession.
Wider context is in Argentina and the United States explained and on the Argentina hub. The key players of the Argentine economy are profiled separately.
In Plain English
- Nowcast: a model that estimates the current quarter before official data exist.
- Technical recession: two straight quarterly falls in output.
- Seasonally adjusted: figures corrected for regular seasonal swings, such as holidays and harvests.
- Trend line: a smoothed series that hides month-to-month noise.
What Is Not Known
No official third-quarter figure exists yet, and September activity data are still to come. The university number is a model estimate that can move sharply.
Whether the government expects a second straight fall is not public. The university does not itself use the word recession in its weekly report.
What Comes Next
The university publishes its next estimate on Friday, 30 October, and every Friday after that. INDEC then releases September activity on Tuesday, 24 November.
The first official third-quarter figure follows on Wednesday, 16 December. That number will show whether Argentina is in a technical recession.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Argentina recession risk?
A university model estimates that output fell 2.66% in July to September from the previous quarter. It is an estimate, not official data.
Is Argentina officially in recession?
Not yet. INDEC reported a 0.6% fall for April to June, and the third-quarter figure is due on Wednesday, 16 December.
Who is behind the estimate?
The Centre for Quantitative Business Studies at the Universidad de San Andrés, near Buenos Aires. It updates the figure every Friday.
How reliable is the nowcast?
The university calls its range a margin of the calculation, not a calibrated confidence interval. The central bank’s forecaster survey expects a smaller fall of 0.95%.
Why does it matter to US investors?
It tests the growth case behind Argentina’s dollar bonds and New York-listed shares. Weaker activity can also reduce tax income.
Sources: Universidad de San Andrés, Nowcast del PBI; UdeSA weekly report, 23 October 2026; INDEC, EMAE August 2026 (21 October); INDEC, GDP advance report second quarter 2026 (17 September); INDEC, release calendar second half 2026; Central Bank of Argentina, REM market expectations survey (all accessed 27 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief