Ukraine Grain Traders Association Lowers 2024 Crop Forecast
On Wednesday, the Ukraine Grain Traders Association (UGA) reduced its 2024 harvest forecast for grains and oilseeds by 2.8 million metric tons.
The revised estimate is now 71.8 million metric tons due to a recent heatwave.
Detailed Forecast Breakdown
- UGA projects the 2024 harvest will include:
- Corn: 23.4 million metric tons
- Wheat: 19.8 million metric tons
- Barley: 4.95 million metric tons
- Sunflower seeds: 12.8 million metric tons
- Soybeans: 4.8 million metric tons
- Canola: 4.3 million metric tons
Hot, dry conditions in Ukraine during July this year prompted UGA to downgrade forecasts. These weather conditions significantly impacted the yields of late-ripening grains and oilseeds.
Moreover, the association has lowered its 2024/25 export outlook by 2.5 million metric tons to 41 million metric tons.
Previously, in 2023/24, Ukraine had exported 57.5 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds, including significant amounts of wheat and corn.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian meteorologists predicted a 20% to 30% reduction in the late-crop harvest across central, southern, and eastern regions due to the heat.
Simultaneously, the acting Minister of Agriculture reported potential declines of up to 15% in late crop yields across most regions, citing extreme heat as the primary cause.
These updated projections highlight the profound effects of climatic conditions on agricultural productivity, potentially influencing global grain markets.
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