Bettors Back Lula at 91%, Expect Close Finish
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS · PREDICTION MARKETS
Published Sunday, 25 October 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE, Brazil’s official vote counter) count, Polymarket and Kalshi market data
Key Facts
- —Prediction markets Polymarket: President Lula wins by under 4 points, 83%, up 67 points in 24 hours (7:29 p.m. ET).
- —Second exchange Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC (the US derivatives regulator): Lula by 3–6 points, 57%.
- —Count Lula leads by 0.74 point with 55.56% of polling sections counted (7:30 p.m. ET).
- —Next Brazil’s electoral court keeps counting; the official result decides, not the bets.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every 20 minutes from 5 p.m. Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.8% · Lula 90.9% (US$215 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 10% · Lula 90.6%
As of 25 October, 7:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction-market traders now put the chance of a Lula win at 91%, and most of that money expects a close finish. On Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, the contract for the winner of the runoff stands at 91% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and 9% for Flávio Bolsonaro (7:20 p.m. ET), and Kalshi agrees at 91%.
On Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, the price for “Lula wins by under 4 points” rose about 67 points in 24 hours to 83%.It matters to US readers because Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and a razor-thin result can keep investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and the real waiting.
The move coincided with the start of the official count, which shows the two candidates close together.
In Plain English
Runoff: a second vote between the top two candidates, held because nobody won more than half of the valid votes on 4 October.
Margin of victory: how many percentage points the winner finishes ahead of the loser.
TSE: the Superior Electoral Court, Brazil’s official vote counter.
An 83% price: traders pay about 83 cents for a contract that pays US$1 if that outcome happens.
What Prediction Markets Say
Two exchanges list margin-of-victory markets for the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Polymarket uses four-point bands.
Kalshi uses three-point bands.
- Polymarket, Lula by under 4 points: 83%, up about 67 points in 24 hours and 65 in a week.
- Polymarket, Lula by 4–8 points: 12.3%, up about 12 points in 24 hours.
- Polymarket, Flávio by under 4 points: 6.5%, down about 38 points in 24 hours.
- Polymarket, Flávio by 4–8 points: 0.7%, down about 34 points in 24 hours.
- Kalshi, Lula by 3–6 points: 57% on the last trade, against 2% at its previous price.
- Kalshi, Lula by 0–3 points: 30% on the last trade, against 13% before; buyers and sellers were far apart (31% bid, 41% ask).
- Kalshi, Flávio by 0–3 points: 6%, against 30% before.
The bands are cut differently, so Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s prices cannot be compared one to one. Kalshi’s last trades also jump around, as the wide gap between bids and asks shows.
Polymarket’s margin market has traded about US$9.2 million in all, including about US$3.0 million in the past 24 hours. Kalshi’s eight bands saw about 240,000 contracts traded in 24 hours, so both are actively traded tonight.
On Polymarket’s main winner market, Lula is at about 94% and Flávio at about 6%; Lula’s contract alone has traded about US$39 million. Prices were read on 25 October 2026 at 7:29 p.m. ET; they are bets, not polls.
Live prices are on our
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
Polls closed at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET). At 8:28 p.m. Brasília time (7:28 p.m. ET), the TSE had counted 51.35% of polling sections.
- Lula: 31,754,986 votes, 50.15%.
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 31,564,058 votes, 49.85%.
- Gap: about 191,000 votes, or 0.30 percentage point.
No single cause for the move was confirmed. It came in the hours when polls closed and the count began, and the narrow-win bands for both candidates drew heavy trading.
A day earlier, Polymarket’s most likely band was a Flávio win by under 4 points. See our
report from 22 October and our count update.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.47%
205,082.56
+0.47%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,746.36
-0.31%
3,017,221
—
2,540.10
+0.46%
57,021.19
+0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
What It Means for US Readers
A finish this close could keep Brazilian markets uncertain until the TSE publishes a final tally. That matters for US investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and the real, including through US-listed shares of Brazilian companies.
Votes from different parts of the country arrive at different speeds, so an early lead can shrink or reverse. Treat tonight’s prices as one signal next to the official count.
Our
runoff guide explains the vote, and our Brazil hub tracks the economy and politics around it. More odds sit on our Latin America odds page.
What Is Not Known
It is not known which candidate will finish ahead, because the count is still under way and the gap is only 0.30 point. We do not know which regions are still to report.
We also could not confirm exactly how each platform measures the margin, whether in valid votes or all votes. Only the TSE’s final count will settle it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do prediction markets say about Brazil’s runoff margin?
Polymarket gives 83% to Lula winning by under 4 points. Kalshi’s last trades put Lula by 3–6 points at 57% and by 0–3 points at 30% (25 October, 7:29 p.m. ET).
How big was the move?
On Polymarket, the “Lula by under 4 points” price rose about 67 points in 24 hours, from roughly 15.5% to 83%. Flávio Bolsonaro’s matching price fell from about 45% to 6.5%.
Why did the odds move?
No single cause was confirmed. The move came as the official count by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) began, and Lula led by 0.30 point with 51.35% of sections counted.
Are these prices forecasts?
No. They are real-money bets, not polls and not a forecast by this newsroom. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, and prices can reverse quickly as the count moves.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) live results feed, resultados.tse.jus.br (read 25 October 2026, 7:28 p.m. ET) · Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 25 October 2026, 7:29 p.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief