TUNISIA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- What is happening Tunisia’s 2027 draft budget puts public debt at 85% of GDP by the end of 2027.
- Why it matters Heavy borrowing limits Tunisia’s room to absorb oil shocks, which matters to US travellers and investors there.
- The numbers Spending is US$22.9 billion and revenue US$18.0 billion, leaving a US$4.9 billion gap to borrow.
- Who is who Economy Minister Samir Abdelhafidh presented the 2027 economic plan to parliament’s finance committees on 28 October.
- What to watch Parliament still has to debate and vote the finance bill, and the 85% debt path will be tested.
- What it means for you The State Department rates Tunisia Level 2, Exercise Increased Caution; the budget changes no travel rules.
Tunisia’s draft budget for 2027 leans on heavy borrowing. Public debt is set to reach 85% of GDP.
Tunisia’s draft budget puts public debt at 85% of its annual economic output (GDP) by the end of 2027. Parliament’s finance committees heard the economy minister on the 2027 economic plan on Wednesday, 28 October.
The draft finance bill went to parliament in October, and lawmakers are now reviewing it. For US readers, it shows how a Mediterranean tourist destination plans to pay its bills.
What the Draft Budget Contains
Spending is 68.9 billion dinars (about US$22.9 billion), with debt repayment of 13.3 billion dinars (about US$4.4 billion) listed separately. Revenue is 54.3 billion dinars (about US$18.0 billion), leaving a gap of 14.6 billion dinars (about US$4.9 billion).
Taxes bring in 49.6 billion dinars (about US$16.5 billion), or 91.4% of revenue. That leaves little other income and a large borrowing need.
The economic plan behind it lifts investment to 16.4% of GDP from 15.5%. Foreign investment, money foreign firms put in, is forecast at 4.8 billion dinars (about US$1.6 billion).
- GDP: the value of all goods and services Tunisia produces in a year.
- Debt ratio: total public debt measured against the size of the economy.
- Parliament: the Assembly of the Representatives of the People and the National Council of Regions and Districts, which review the budget together.
- Dinar: Tunisia’s currency; US$1 buys about 3.01 dinars.
Debt, Oil and the Trade Gap
The 85% ratio is the headline figure in the budget numbers published this month. It compares total public debt with the size of the economy.
The economic plan assumes oil averages about US$80 a barrel. The economy minister said energy prices and shipping costs weigh on the outlook.
The minister said the energy gap explains about half of the trade deficit. Phosphate and oil output fell in 2026, which raised fertilizer and energy imports.
What the Economic Plan Assumes
The economy minister told parliament on Wednesday, 28 October, that growth should reach 3.1% in 2027. The 2026 estimate was cut from 3.3% to 2.7%.
Inflation is projected to ease to 5.2% from 5.3%, and unemployment to 14.5% from 14.9%. The plan expects 11.5 million tourists and an 8% rise in exports of goods and services.
Foreign-currency reserves fell to cover 93 days of imports, the ministry said. That is about three months of purchases abroad, a common safety yardstick.
What Lawmakers Pressed
Deputies questioned whether the growth and investment assumptions are realistic. Some said growth above 4% is needed to create enough jobs for graduates.
They asked how many foreign-funded projects reach production, and urged simpler rules and fewer prior licences. They also asked how the plan will be revised during the year without a supplementary budget.
Deputies also pressed the minister on loss-making state firms. He said the state will not sell them, and their 2022 and 2023 accounts are still being finished.
Related Rio Times reports are Who Runs Tunisia’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026 and US Partner Tunisia Jails Critics 25 Years. More is on the Tunisia hub, and Tunisia Spurns the IMF and Bets on Itself covers the debt backdrop.
What It Means for You
The State Department rates Tunisia Level 2, Exercise Increased Caution, over terrorism, in an advisory last reissued on 23 October 2024. It advises Level 4, Do Not Travel, within 16 kilometres (10 miles) of the Libyan border and most of the Algerian border.
The figures reviewed contain no change to travel rules for Americans. Investors in Tunisian debt should watch the 85% debt path and oil prices.
What Is Not Known
The bill’s own budget tables could not be checked, so spending, revenue and the 85% debt ratio come from published summaries. The growth and inflation figures come from parliament’s own record of the 28 October hearing.
No date is confirmed for the final vote, and no record of the finance minister’s own hearing could be confirmed. It is also unclear how much borrowing will come from abroad.
Summaries differ on the debt ratio for 2025 and 2026, so no earlier ratio is given. Parliament must still vote on the finance bill before it becomes law.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is Tunisia’s 2027 budget?
The draft sets spending at 68.9 billion dinars (about US$22.9 billion) and revenue at 54.3 billion dinars (about US$18.0 billion). The 14.6 billion dinar gap (about US$4.9 billion) must be borrowed.
How high will Tunisia’s public debt be?
The draft budget numbers put public debt at 85% of GDP at the end of 2027. Summaries differ on earlier years, so no earlier ratio is given.
What oil price does Tunisia assume?
The economic plan assumes oil averages about US$80 a barrel. The economy minister said the assumptions can be revised if conditions change.
Is Tunisia safe for American travellers?
The State Department rates it Level 2, Exercise Increased Caution, over terrorism. Border zones with Libya and Algeria are Level 4, Do Not Travel.
Sources: Assembly of the Representatives of the People of Tunisia, joint finance committee session of 28 October 2026 on the 2027 economic balance; Ministry of Economy and Planning, 2027 economic budget tabled in parliament; Assembly of the Representatives of the People, draft finance bill 2027; US State Department, Tunisia travel advisory; Exchange rate US$1 = 3.01 Tunisian dinars, 31 October 2026 (all accessed 31 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief