Key Facts
—Who. Raúl Castro, 95, Cuba’s former leader, is charged in Florida with conspiracy to commit first-degree murder.
—What. A state judge signed a no-bond arrest warrant over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes that killed four men.
—When. Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan signed it on Friday 16 October 2026, and Attorney General James Uthmeier announced it on Monday 19 October.
—Why it matters. Three of the four dead were US citizens, and the warrant adds a state case to a federal indictment unsealed in May 2026.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket gives 6.0% odds that Castro is in US custody by 31 December (US$828,619 traded; 10:33 p.m. ET, 19 October 2026).
—Still unknown. Whether any country would act on the warrant; Castro is in Cuba and no arrest is expected soon.
Florida’s attorney general announced on Monday 19 October that a state judge has signed a no-bond arrest warrant for Raúl Castro, the 95-year-old former Cuban leader. The warrant charges him with conspiracy to commit first-degree murder over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes that killed four men, three of them US citizens.
An arrest is unlikely soon, because Castro is in Cuba and is not expected to be handed over. Officials say the warrant is meant to limit where he can travel.
What the Warrant Says
Attorney General James Uthmeier announced the warrant at Florida International University in Miami on Monday morning. Chief Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan of Florida’s 11th Judicial Circuit signed it on Friday 16 October.
It charges one count of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder and carries no bond. Castro has not been convicted of anything, and the charge is an allegation that a court has yet to test.
The affidavit alleges that Castro, then Cuba’s defence minister and first vice president, was a senior decision-maker in the chain of command that authorised the attack. It also alleges that Cuban intelligence agents infiltrated Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based exile group, and passed its flight information to Havana.
Florida prosecutors say part of the alleged plot took place in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, which they cite as the basis for state jurisdiction. Uthmeier said: “Florida will never stop pursuing accountability for that communist conspiracy.”
The 1996 Shootdown
On 24 February 1996 a Cuban Air Force MiG-29 downed two unarmed civilian planes of Brothers to the Rescue, killing all four people aboard. Florida says the attack took place over international waters.
The dead were Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Costa, Mario de la Peña and Pablo Morales. Three were US citizens, and Morales was a lawful permanent resident.
Federal Case and Havana’s Response
A federal indictment unsealed on 20 May 2026 separately charges Castro and five others with murder, destruction of aircraft and conspiracy to kill US nationals. A 2003 US indictment had earlier charged two pilots and General Rubén Martínez Puente, who reportedly died in 2021, with similar crimes.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel called the warrant a “pathetic Miami circus” with electoral motives, Infobae reported. He said it has no legal or practical sense.
What It Means for US Readers
For now the warrant is mostly symbolic, because Castro is in Cuba and is not expected to be handed over. Its reach would depend on Castro travelling to a country willing to act, which officials say the warrant is designed to discourage.
The case also shows Florida using its own courts on a matter long handled by federal prosecutors, a step that may draw closer attention from Cuba-watchers in Washington and Miami. Readers can follow our wider coverage on the Cuba page and in our report on the Cuban Dignity Act fee.
What Is Not Known
No court date has been announced in the reports we reviewed, and it is unclear whether any country would act on the warrant. Whether Florida can try a case over an attack that happened over water is for the courts to decide.
Castro himself has not commented in the reports we reviewed. The only Cuban response we found came from President Díaz-Canel.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, “Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by…?”: 6.0% for custody by 31 December 2026 (US$828,619 traded).
Prices as of 10:33 p.m. ET, 19 October 2026. Prices are bets, not polls; Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Sources
WGCU · NBC 16 · WSVN · Infobae · Brasil de Fato · Florida Phoenix · Polymarket
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Raúl Castro charged with in Florida?
He is charged with one count of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder over the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue planes. A state judge signed the no-bond warrant on 16 October 2026.
Can Castro actually be arrested?
Not easily, because he is in Cuba and is not expected to be handed over. Officials say the warrant is meant to limit where he can travel.
How does this differ from the federal case?
A federal indictment unsealed on 20 May 2026 charges Castro and five others with murder, destruction of aircraft and conspiracy to kill US nationals. The Florida warrant is a separate state charge of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder.
Who died in the 1996 shootdown?
Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Costa, Mario de la Peña and Pablo Morales were killed. Three were US citizens, and Morales was a lawful permanent resident.