Democrats Lead US Midterm Polls and Odds
Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November, in midterm elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump’s party keeps control of Congress. Our 2026 US midterm elections hub tracks every update.
Democrats enter the final weekend ahead in national polls and in prediction markets, and early voting is running far above 2022. Polls begin closing at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Key Facts
- Election Day: Tuesday, 3 November, with all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats up.
- Polls: Democrats lead national congressional polls 51.4% to 43.2% in RealClearPolling’s polling average.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction market, gives Democrats 94.5% for the House and 72.5% for the Senate (1 November, 8:22 a.m. ET).
- Early voting: More than 43 million ballots were cast with five days to go, nearly 10 million above 2022.
- Poll closings: From 6 p.m. ET Tuesday to 1 a.m. ET Wednesday, 4 November.
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Democrats Hold a National Lead
Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 points, 51.4% to 43.2%, in RealClearPolling’s average of national polls for Congress as of 31 October. RealClearPolling is a site that averages published public polls.
A late-October Economist/YouGov survey, run by the YouGov polling firm, found 44% of registered voters expect Democrats to win the House of Representatives, against 31% who expect Republicans to keep it. On the Senate, 39% expect a Democratic majority and 36% a Republican one.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gave Democrats 94.5% for the House and 72.5% for the Senate on 1 November at 8:22 a.m. ET. Across both sides, US$35.3 million has been traded on the House market and US$13.7 million on the Senate market.
Its Balance of Power market put a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 71.5%, with US$49.6 million traded. Those prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes.
Democrats need 51 Senate seats for a majority, while Republicans need 50 because the vice president breaks ties. A Republican Senate with a Democratic House is the next most likely outcome in that market, at 22.5%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Crypto — Live Market Board
+0.67%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 80,543 | +0.67% | -29.41% | 80,007 | 80,550 | 79,380 | 21,816,416,256 |
| ETH | 2,348 | +1.18% | -43.00% | 2,320 | 2,349 | 2,295 | 8,316,267,520 |
| SOL | 100.98 | +0.22% | -49.19% | 100.75 | 101.04 | 99.17 | 2,110,777,984 |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.04% | -49.89% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1,574,615,552 |
| BNB | 750.98 | +1.29% | -34.10% | 741.42 | 751.10 | 733.56 | 1,470,316,160 |
| ADA | 0.21 | -0.30% | -69.21% | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 190,120,672 |
| DOGE | 0.08 | +0.78% | -60.98% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 441,746,112 |
| AVAX | 8.84 | -1.36% | -56.54% | 8.96 | 8.96 | 8.67 | 289,961,824 |
| LINK | 11.47 | +0.80% | -37.04% | 11.38 | 11.47 | 11.23 | 248,509,440 |
| DOT | 0.99 | -2.05% | -68.52% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 109,918,912 |
| LTC | 56.59 | -0.13% | -43.06% | 56.66 | 56.87 | 55.70 | 169,852,160 |
| BCH | 290.36 | +3.57% | -47.81% | 280.36 | 292.52 | 277.47 | 195,939,216 |
| TRX | 0.33 | -0.51% | +9.69% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 371,519,040 |
| XLM | 0.17 | +0.21% | -47.60% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 107,134,680 |
| HBAR | 0.08 | -1.56% | -58.82% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 55,674,584 |
| NEAR | 4.62 | +2.60% | +97.50% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 630,712,192 |
| ATOM | 1.61 | -1.48% | -49.28% | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 30,012,314 |
| AAVE | 132.37 | -2.36% | -43.78% | 135.57 | 135.87 | 129.56 | 246,790,448 |
Early Voting Runs Ahead of 2022
More than 43 million Americans had voted in person early or returned mail ballots with five days to go before Election Day. That is nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms.
Early voting rose by more than 30% in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas. The figures do not show which candidates voters chose.
The Final Push in Contested States
President Donald Trump campaigned in Florida on Friday, 30 October. Sunday rallies in Iowa and Kansas were cancelled on Thursday, 29 October, and restored on Friday.
In Iowa he is expected to back Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate. In Kansas he will appear with Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who trailed Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, 45% to 43% in a September poll by Emerson College, a university polling centre, within the margin of error.
In Texas, Senate candidates Ken Paxton, a Republican, and James Talarico, a Democrat, are focusing on Houston and Harris County, the state’s most populous. Start times for Trump’s Sunday rallies were not available.
What It Means for US Readers
The first scheduled poll closings come at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The last are at 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday, 4 November, in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.
Results arrive in waves because closing times and ballot-counting rules differ by state. Check your state election office for official figures, and use your own polling place’s local deadline rather than an Eastern Time conversion.
For more, see our guide to midterm poll closing times and our look at midterm odds. Our report on Latino voters in the midterms covers a key group.
What Is Not Known
Market prices change by the minute, and no poll or market is a forecast of the result. Early-vote totals are independent tallies, not official final turnout counts.
We did not confirm the full state-by-state poll-closing schedule with every state election office. Start times for Trump’s Sunday rallies were not available.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 US midterm election?
Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot.
What do the latest polls show?
RealClearPolling’s average, as reported on 31 October, has Democrats ahead 51.4% to 43.2% on the generic congressional ballot. an Economist/YouGov survey found 44% of registered voters expect a Democratic House, against 31% who expect a Republican one.
When do polls close?
The first scheduled closings are at 6 p.m. ET on 3 November in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The last are at 1 a.m. ET on 4 November in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
US Midterms 2026
- What Are the 2026 US Midterms and Who Is Ahead?
- What Are the 2026 US Midterms and Who Is Ahead?
- What Time Do Polls Close in the 2026 Midterms?
- Midterm Odds and the Limits of Trump’s Power