Prediction Markets: Israel
Key Facts
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, a crypto-based platform: Eizenkot 47% to be prime minister, up 14 points in 24 hours. 1:25 p.m. ET, 1 Nov.
- Kalshi. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, has Eizenkot at 34%, up more than 10 points, and Netanyahu at 16%.
- Trigger. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, said his party will back Eizenkot to form the government.
- Count. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc holds 53 of 120 seats; his rivals plus Arab parties hold 67.
- Next. President Isaac Herzog, who picks who tries to form a government, starts talks Wednesday 4 November.
Israel’s main challenger has jumped back to the front of the betting, and traders now see a real chance that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses power.
Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, now give Gadi Eizenkot a 47% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister. That is up 14 points in 24 hours, and it puts him ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 34%, who fell 10 points.
It matters to US readers because Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since World War II, according to the Congressional Research Service, the research arm of the US Congress. Who governs Israel shapes what Washington can ask on Gaza, Iran and arms.
Eizenkot, 66, is a retired general who once led the Israeli army and now heads Yashar, a new party. His 21 seats make it the second-largest party in the Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament.
What Prediction Markets Say
Three markets were read at about 1:25 p.m. ET on 1 November 2026. These are bets, not polls.
- Polymarket, next prime minister after the election: Eizenkot 47% (up 14 points in 24 hours, down 5 points in 7 days), Netanyahu 34% (down 10 in 24 hours), Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, 5%, Bennett 5%. The market has traded about US$83 million overall and about US$1.1 million in the last 24 hours.
- Kalshi, prime minister after the 2026 election: “No one” 42%, Eizenkot 34%, Netanyahu 16%. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator. About 8.7 million contracts have traded overall and about 235,000 in the last 24 hours.
- Kalshi, who succeeds Netanyahu: Eizenkot 45%, Bennett 6%. Only about 140,000 contracts have traded in total, so this market is thinly traded.
The Eizenkot line on the main Kalshi market is thin: about 24,000 contracts changed hands in 24 hours, so a few large bets can move it. The Polymarket market is far deeper, and both point the same way.
On the main Kalshi market Eizenkot traded at about 51% before the vote, then fell sharply after the count. Sunday’s jump is a rebound, not a new high.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
The clearest trigger came on Sunday 1 November. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad (Together) party, which won 12 seats, said it will recommend Eizenkot to form the next government.
The Joint List and Ra’am, the two main Arab parties with 19 seats between them, are expected to recommend Eizenkot as well, according to senior party officials. Ahmad Tibi, a Joint List lawmaker, said on Saturday 31 October that his party would back an Eizenkot-led government from outside, without taking ministries.
Eizenkot said on Saturday that more than half a million more Israelis voted against Netanyahu’s government than for it. He promised to use the new Knesset majority quickly, starting with a state commission of inquiry, an independent official investigation, a long-running demand linked to the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023.
No bettor has said why they traded, and markets show the move, not the reason. The timing matches Bennett’s announcement, but we cannot prove it caused the jump.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Crypto — Live Market Board
+0.67%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 80,543 | +0.67% | -29.41% | 80,007 | 80,550 | 79,380 | 21,816,416,256 |
| ETH | 2,348 | +1.18% | -43.00% | 2,320 | 2,349 | 2,295 | 8,316,267,520 |
| SOL | 100.98 | +0.22% | -49.19% | 100.75 | 101.04 | 99.17 | 2,110,777,984 |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.04% | -49.89% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1,574,615,552 |
| BNB | 750.98 | +1.29% | -34.10% | 741.42 | 751.10 | 733.56 | 1,470,316,160 |
| ADA | 0.21 | -0.30% | -69.21% | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 190,120,672 |
| DOGE | 0.08 | +0.78% | -60.98% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 441,746,112 |
| AVAX | 8.84 | -1.36% | -56.54% | 8.96 | 8.96 | 8.67 | 289,961,824 |
| LINK | 11.47 | +0.80% | -37.04% | 11.38 | 11.47 | 11.23 | 248,509,440 |
| DOT | 0.99 | -2.05% | -68.52% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 109,918,912 |
| LTC | 56.59 | -0.13% | -43.06% | 56.66 | 56.87 | 55.70 | 169,852,160 |
| BCH | 290.36 | +3.57% | -47.81% | 280.36 | 292.52 | 277.47 | 195,939,216 |
| TRX | 0.33 | -0.51% | +9.69% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 371,519,040 |
| XLM | 0.17 | +0.21% | -47.60% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 107,134,680 |
| HBAR | 0.08 | -1.56% | -58.82% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 55,674,584 |
| NEAR | 4.62 | +2.60% | +97.50% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 630,712,192 |
| ATOM | 1.61 | -1.48% | -49.28% | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 30,012,314 |
| AAVE | 132.37 | -2.36% | -43.78% | 135.57 | 135.87 | 129.56 | 246,790,448 |
The Arithmetic Behind the Bets
Israel held its election on Tuesday 27 October. Netanyahu’s Likud party won 27 seats, the most of any party, and his bloc of right-wing and religious parties holds 53 of 120.
His opponents hold 48, and the Arab parties add 19. Together that is 67, above the 61 needed for a majority, but only if parties that rarely sit together agree.
That is why Kalshi still gives “No one” 42%. Traders see a long road from recommendations to a working coalition.
What Happens Next
President Isaac Herzog is due to begin talks with every party that won seats on Wednesday 4 November. His office is largely ceremonial, but he decides who gets the first chance to build a government.
That person has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, the president can turn to someone else, and repeated failure can send voters back to the polls.
Before the election, reports said Herzog had floated a unity government of Likud and Yashar. His office denied that he had discussed any such deal, and Eizenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu.
What It Means for US Readers
A new prime minister would not change Israel’s need for US weapons and diplomatic backing. It could change the tone of talks on Gaza and on Iran, though Eizenkot has not published a full platform that we could confirm.
For investors, the practical risk is delay. A coalition fight can postpone budgets and security decisions, and a failed attempt could mean a seventh election since 2019.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Our market data does not price a direct link to either region. The clearest channels are oil, where Israel–Iran tension moves prices for exporters such as Brazil and Nigeria, and diplomacy.
Morocco normalised ties with Israel in December 2020 under a US-brokered deal, so a new Israeli government could shape that relationship. We have not confirmed any specific policy change.
What Is Not Known
- How Likud will respond to Bennett’s move, and whether any party switches sides.
- Whether Bennett’s party and the Arab parties could sit in one coalition, and whether Eizenkot would accept a government that depends on their votes.
- Whom Herzog will pick for the first attempt once he hears every party.
- What each trader reacted to; the markets show the move, not the reason.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do prediction markets expect in Israel now?
On Polymarket, Gadi Eizenkot has a 47% chance of becoming prime minister and Benjamin Netanyahu 34%, read at 1:25 p.m. ET on 1 November. Kalshi gives “No one” 42%, Eizenkot 34% and Netanyahu 16%.
Why did Eizenkot’s odds jump?
Naftali Bennett’s party said on 1 November it will recommend Eizenkot to form the government. The Arab parties are also expected to back him, though no trader has explained the move.
Has Israel’s new government been decided?
No. Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 of 120 seats and his rivals 67 including Arab parties, but 61 are needed and President Herzog starts talks on 4 November.
How long does a coalition take to form?
The person chosen by the president gets 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. Failure can lead to another candidate or a new election.
Are prediction markets the same as polls?
No. They are real-money bets, not surveys of voters. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator.
Related: Ex-Army Chief’s Israel PM Odds Jump to 25% · Traders See Israel Deadlock, Not a New PM · Herzog to Begin Israel Coalition Talks · Prediction Markets hub
Sources
Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 1 November 2026, 1:25 p.m. ET) · Israel’s Central Elections Committee, the official vote counter · Statements by Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party, Gadi Eizenkot and President Herzog’s office · Congressional Research Service, the research arm of the US Congress
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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