Oil Hits Six-Month High as Hormuz Tanker Attack Stirs Fear
Key Facts
- US crude settled at US$104.12 a barrel, up 2.08%, and Brent expired at US$117.64, up 2.4%, the highest settlements since the end of April.
- The WTI-tracking USO fund closed at US$168.83, +0.38%, a smaller gain than the futures because it holds a basket of contracts.
- A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz by explosives attached to its hull, the first reported successful limpet-mine strike on merchant shipping there since the war began in February.
- Petrobras rose 0.68% to US$22.05, yet it remains 15.7% below its 23 October high after Lula’s runoff win.
- Ecopetrol fell 0.52% and YPF fell 1.69%, both lagging the crude rally.
- Oil posted a fourth straight monthly gain, while the US oil rig count rose by two, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count showed, from 460 a week earlier.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by 31 December a 39.5% chance (30 October, 7:39 pm ET).
Today’s Focus
Oil jumped on Friday because the war risk in the Gulf became physical again. A tanker was hit by explosives in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, and US benchmark crude settled at US$104.12 a barrel, up 2.08%.
Brent, the global price, expired its December contract at US$117.64, up 2.4% and the highest settlement since the end of April. It is the fourth monthly gain in a row, and this one comes with stocks falling: the S&P 500 lost 1.82% on the day, so oil and fear are rising together.
The trend is up but not smooth. The USO fund, which tracks US crude, is 0.4% below its 12-month high of 169.53 set on 23 October, and it is up 14.56% over 20 sessions.
For US readers this means dearer petrol and diesel just before the 3 November midterms. For producers in Brazil, Guyana and Nigeria it means a windfall on paper, though Brazil’s state-run Petrobras faces political limits on how much it keeps.
What matters today. Oil is priced for a war that could widen after the US vote, and the next headline from the Strait decides whether it gets cheaper or dearer.
01 The session in one read
Crude oil rose more than 2% on Friday, 30 October 2026, and finished the month at its highest level since April. The trigger was a tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz, where explosives attached to the hull by a small boat caused the damage, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard gave a different account and said a vessel struck a naval mine on an unauthorised route. Either way, the market read it as proof that the shipping lane is still unsafe in the ninth month of the war.
Latin American oil shares did not follow the crude price. Petrobras gained 0.68% to US$22.05, but Ecopetrol lost 0.52% and YPF lost 1.69%.
The best-supported ranking of causes is, first, the tanker strike in Hormuz, which raised the chance of lost supply; second, the fear that US action against Iran resumes after the 3 November vote, which kept a risk premium in the price; and third, thin diplomacy so far, with talks through mediators but no public deal. We hold this at medium confidence because the exact weight of each cause cannot be measured, and the price also rose in a session when stocks fell sharply.
The variable to watch is the next incident or deal around Hormuz: another attack would push Brent toward the 120 level that traders now talk about, while a signed US-Iran text would remove much of the premium within days.
02 The board
The USO fund closed at US$168.83, +0.38%, a much smaller gain than the roughly 2% jump in the futures it tracks. The gap comes from how the fund is built, because it holds a spread of contracts and is priced at a different clock time than the futures settlement, so read it as a loose proxy and not as the oil price itself.
On the five-day view the New York shares of the Brazilian producer are the stand-out laggard, down 15.71% over five sessions even though crude barely changed over the same period. Ecopetrol sits well below its 12-month high of 18.26 set on 15 September.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$168.83 | +0.38% |
| Petrobras | US$22.05 | +0.68% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.19 | -0.52% |
| YPF | US$47.00 | -1.69% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-30. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,921.80 | -0.75% | +19.56% | 169,186.42 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| IPSA | 10,253.96 | -2.76% | — | 10,545.26 | 10,722 | 10,633 | — |
| IPC MEX | 69,705.03 | -0.12% | +12.74% | 69,787.41 | 70,008 | 69,383 | 49,372,306 |
| MERVAL | 92,079 | -2.59% | +12.65% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,490.92 | +0.04% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.69 | +0.62% | +1.45% | 18.57 | 18.69 | 18.54 | — |
| USD/CLP | 983.47 | -0.57% | +5.64% | 989.13 | 991.87 | 979.07 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,149 | +3.06% | -18.02% | 3,056 | 3,173 | 3,111 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.45 | +0.17% | +3.85% | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,537 | -0.28% | +3.77% | 1,541 | 1,541 | 1,537 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.21 | +3.57% | +2.29% | 38.83 | 40.21 | 40.08 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,803 | +3.78% | -16.54% | 5,592 | 5,803 | 5,735 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.97 | +4.93% | +77.92% | 11.41 | 11.97 | 11.82 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.54 | +1.83% | -4.34% | 59.45 | 61.14 | 59.85 | — |
| USD/CRC | 451.24 | +2.13% | -7.80% | 441.83 | 451.40 | 450.04 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.23% | +2.18% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved: a tanker strike and a pre-election risk premium
The first cause was the strike on a tanker in Hormuz on Thursday night. Maritime sources described it as the first reported successful limpet-mine attack on merchant shipping in the waterway since the war with Iran began in February, and it lifted Brent by US$2.76 on the day.
The second cause was fear of what follows the US midterms on 3 November. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he believes the war will end soon, but traders are bracing for renewed US action after the vote, and Saxo Bank said oil could stay volatile for the next couple of weeks around the Israeli and US elections.
The third cause was supply damage elsewhere in the region. On Thursday the Iran-aligned Houthis said they attacked Saudi sites including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries, which helped hold the price up even though a Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted one missile.
On the US side, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, released at 17:00 UTC, showed the number of oil rigs up by two from 460 a week earlier, which says American drillers are adding capacity slowly rather than racing to exploit US$104 oil. Our confidence in this ranking is medium: the tanker strike is the best-supported cause, while the election-linked premium is an inference from trader commentary.
04 The trend behind it
This is a continuation, not a new phase. The USO fund is up 14.56% over 20 sessions and 42.0% over 60 sessions, and it has risen for three sessions in a row.
RT’s own price history gives a base rate for moves this size. In the 40 earlier cases since 2007 when the fund rose 14.6% or more in 20 sessions, it was higher 20 sessions later in 24 of 40 cases (60%), with a median gain of 1.5% and a worst case of a 15.0% fall; history is not a forecast.
The cross-asset picture is unusual. The US dollar index barely moved at 101.96, the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.93%, and the VIX fear gauge jumped 12.91% to 19.42, so the usual macro drivers were quiet and the war headlines did the work.
05 What it means for Latin America and Africa
For Brazil the story is political, not about crude, and Petrobras trades lower after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 25 October runoff, because investors fear tighter state influence over fuel prices and dividends. The shares are down 15.71% over five sessions while oil stayed near its high.
The slide hurts foreign holders of the New York shares. It helps Brazilian drivers only if the government chooses to hold pump prices down.
For Guyana, high oil is a direct fiscal gain. Its output has run at about 900,000 barrels a day since April, according to the operator and government data, and each US$10 on the price adds revenue to a country that sells almost all of it abroad.
For Nigeria, crude sold against Brent at US$117.64 helps the budget and the naira, though refinery and pump-price subsidies can absorb part of the gain. For Argentina, YPF fell 1.69% even with oil high, which suggests investors are weighing local factors more than the global price.
06 The names to watch
Petrobras is the first name, because it shows what politics can do to an oil company when the commodity is strong. The next test is any statement from the new government on fuel pricing and payouts.
Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state-controlled producer, fell 0.52% today and sits below its September peak, while YPF is the proxy for Argentine shale. Both trade on local news more than on Brent right now.
07 What would end it
A signed US-Iran agreement would end the rally fastest, because it would remove the war premium that lifted prices from the US$60 to US$70 range seen before the war. Saxo Bank expects crude to settle in a US$70 to US$90 range even after the conflict ends.
The next dated tests are the US midterms on 3 November and the OPEC and agency monthly oil reports due in mid-November. On the chart, the USO fund has resistance at its 12-month high of 169.53, only 0.4% above Friday’s close, and a close above it would open a new leg higher.
The honest answer to whether this stops soon is that it can stop in a day if diplomacy lands, and can run much further if the Strait is shut again. A move back under 100 for US crude would be the first sign the premium is fading.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders put the chance of a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by 31 December at 39.5%. About US$2.9 million has been traded on that market, as of 30 October 2026, 7:39 pm ET.
The same traders put the chance that the US-Iran ceasefire holds through the 3 November midterms at 89.0%, with about US$1.8 million traded. Oil is priced for exactly this fork, because a deal would remove the war premium and a broken ceasefire would add to it, and these prices are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
08 What to watch
- US midterms, 3 November: Traders fear action against Iran after the vote; a calm result would ease the premium, an escalation would lift Brent toward 120.
- Talks through mediators: A public deal or Iranian reply to US proposals would be the clearest signal that the war premium can shrink.
- Petrobras and fuel policy: Any word from the Lula government on pump prices or dividends decides whether the shares recover toward the 26.16 high.
- Rig counts and the OPEC monthly report: Rising US rig counts or higher OPEC output would cap prices, while a production cut would add support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil rise on Friday?
A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz by explosives attached to its hull, raising the risk of lost supply. US benchmark crude settled at US$104.12, up 2.08%.
Why did Petrobras not follow oil higher?
Investors are worried about state influence on fuel prices and dividends after Lula won the 25 October runoff. The shares are down 15.71% over five sessions.
Who gains from high oil?
Guyana and Nigeria gain most because they sell crude abroad at world prices. Brazil gains less, since Petrobras is exposed to political decisions on fuel.
Could oil fall back quickly?
Yes, if the US and Iran sign a deal that reopens the shipping lane with confidence. Saxo Bank sees a range of US$70 to US$90 after the war.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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