LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 9 Nov

Prediction Markets: Latin America and Africa

Bettors now see Brazil’s central bank holding interest rates in December at 88.5%, up 20 points in a week.

Polymarket gives 88.5% to Brazil’s central bank leaving its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday 9 December, up from 68.5% a week ago. The bank’s rate committee, known as Copom, paused at 13.75% on 4 November, as Polymarket bettors had expected, though economists were split.

The shift matters to US readers because Brazil’s rate sets what its bonds, loans and currency pay, and US investors hold all three through funds, bonds and US-listed shares. This report covers 2 to 9 November across Latin America and Africa.

It also shows a miss: Mexico’s central bank cut rates on 5 November, after bettors gave a cut less than one chance in five. Every price below is a bet, not a poll.

What Prediction Markets Say

Prediction markets are exchanges where people buy and sell contracts on future events, and a price of 60 cents means the crowd gives that outcome roughly a 60% chance. We read the prices below on 9 November 2026, about 5:35 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), and volume means the total money traded across all outcomes of a market since it opened, unless we name one outcome.

• Brazil central bank, 9 December (Polymarket, US$64,831): no change 88.5%, quarter-point (25 basis point) cut 5.7%, quarter-point rise 1.6%.
• Mexico central bank, December (Polymarket, US$22,020, thinly traded): no change 93.5%, quarter-point cut 7.5%. Each outcome is a separate contract, so prices need not add to 100%.
• Argentina’s 2026 inflation (Polymarket, US$93,635): 30.0–34.9% at 95.5%. Argentina’s October monthly rate (US$39,390, thinly traded): 1.9–2.1% at 55.5%, 1.6–1.8% at 38.0%.
• Venezuela’s leader on 31 December (Polymarket, US$99.9 million): Nicolás Maduro, the ousted longtime leader, 93.8%, and Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president, 6.5%. A separate “de facto leader” market (US$444,581) gives Rodríguez 96.2%. The leader market’s rules are unusual, so we do not read 93.8% as a forecast that Maduro returns.
• Next Venezuelan president (Polymarket, US$71,258 in total, US$44,350 on Machado, so thin): María Corina Machado, the opposition leader, 68.5%, Rodríguez 17.5%, Jorge Rodríguez, the head of the National Assembly, 5.6%.
• Maduro’s prison sentence (Polymarket, US$1.10 million): no prison time 58.5%, 60 years or more 22.0%.
• Nigeria’s next president (Polymarket, US$154,434): President Bola Tinubu 67.5% and Peter Obi, the 2023 candidate of the Labour Party, 22.5%.
• Argentina’s 2027 president (Polymarket, US$1.43 million): President Javier Milei 44.5%, Buenos Aires province Governor Axel Kicillof 33.5%, former minister Sergio Massa 15.4%.
• Which African leader leaves office next (Kalshi, last trade prices): Tinubu 27%, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa 12%, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 8%.

Polymarket is a crypto-based platform, while Kalshi is a US exchange regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC. Both publish prices that anyone can read for free.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

The Week’s Biggest Moves

Brazil: bettors close the door on a December cut

Polymarket’s price for no change at the 9 December meeting rose from 68.5% to 88.5%, while a quarter-point cut fell from 25.0% to 5.7%. Copom held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November, which ended a run of five cuts.

The hold is the likely driver of the price. We read the meeting minutes, due Tuesday 10 November, as the next test of how long the pause lasts.

Argentina: one inflation bracket takes almost everything

The bracket of 30.0–34.9% for 2026 inflation jumped from 70.2% to 95.5%, and the 25–29.9% bracket fell from 17.5% to 1.0%. The market holds US$93,635.

Argentina’s statistics office, INDEC, reported 33.4% yearly inflation for September, so the price now sits close to the latest official number. We found no single news trigger this week, so we do not give one.

Brazil: Trump meeting with Flávio Bolsonaro fades

Bets that US President Donald Trump meets Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 fell to 15.5% on US$207,166, after swinging between about 16% and 39% in recent days. Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, lost the 25 October runoff to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

He then left for the United States. Quaest, a Brazilian polling firm, asked 2,004 people from 30 October to 2 November, and 62% said he was wrong to leave while 29% said he was right, as we reported in our Quaest poll story.

A contract on his return by 31 December 2027 shows 44.5%, but only US$644 has traded on it, so it is not a signal.

Venezuela: Machado extends her lead

Machado’s price to win the next presidential election rose from 52.5% to 68.5%, with US$44,350 on her contract, so thinly traded. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday 5 November that elections would “ideally” be held in 2027, without promising a date, as we covered in our Rubio report.

The jump came earlier on 5 November, before Rubio spoke that evening, so we cannot link it to his remark. Maduro’s own sentence market moved the other way, with 60 years or more falling from 32.0% to 22.0%, while no prison time rose to 58.5% from 42.0% in our 2 November report.

Brazil: contraction bets grow

A third-quarter contraction deeper than 0.3% rose from 31.1% to 43.5%, and a drop of 0.3% to 0.1% sits at 40.5%. Only US$6,236 is behind the first outcome (US$50,374 across all outcomes), so it is thinly traded.

Brazil’s statistics agency, IBGE, put second-quarter growth at 0.5%. September industrial output fell 0.8% from August against a forecast drop of 0.2%, per IBGE data in the RT financial data calendar, and the S&P Global composite PMI, a survey of business activity, read 44.4.

A reading below 50 means contraction, and we cannot say traders reacted to either number.

Smaller moves

Bets that Colombia’s former president Gustavo Petro is charged in the US by 31 December fell from 17.5% to 6.5% on thin volume (US$11,983 on that contract), and a US and Cuba military clash in 2026 fell from 17.5% to 7.5% on US$294,479. We found no clear trigger for either.

Latin America

Mexico supplied the week’s surprise: Banxico cut its rate by a quarter point to 6.25% on Thursday 5 November, the RT financial data calendar shows. Polymarket gave a cut about 14% on 2 November and about 18% on the morning of the decision.

The December market now gives no change 93.5% on thin volume. On Mexico’s 2027 midterm election, Polymarket gives Morena, the governing party, 89.2% to win the most seats and the conservative National Action Party (PAN) 76.0% to finish second, up from 67.0% (US$88,933 across all outcomes).

The vote is in June 2027. The Cuba markets are the most heavily traded in the region after Venezuela.

A US military action against Cuba by 31 December stands at 9.0% on US$5.5 million, and a US and Cuba diplomatic meeting by 30 November at 41.0% on thin volume; see our five-scenarios report.Colombia’s central bank market for December gives no change 65.0% and a quarter-point rise 31.6% on US$39,232, thinly traded. Our report on an attack at a toll station in Colombia’s Cauca region covers the security backdrop.

Africa

African markets are thinner than Latin American ones. South Africa’s market on 2026 inflation above 5.0% sits at 64.0%, with only US$32,593 behind that outcome, so it is thinly traded.

The price fell from about 68% on 1 November to about 43% on 6 and 7 November, and has since recovered to 64.0%. Statistics South Africa, the national statistics office, reported 4.5% for September, and economists tracked in the RT calendar expect 4.8% for October.

In Nigeria, Tinubu leads at 67.5% for the election on Saturday 16 January 2027, with Obi at 22.5%. Mali’s military ruler Assimi Goïta’s chance of leaving office by 30 June 2027 fell from 28.0% to 20.5% on US$52,644, and we found no clear trigger.

Polymarket’s new market on Eritrea invading Ethiopia by 31 December gives 12.5% on US$63,669 for that contract. Our Ethiopia report explains who runs the country’s army and foreign policy.

Decisions Ahead

• Monday 9 November: Mexico publishes October inflation at 12:00 UTC (7:00 a.m. ET), with economists expecting 3.65% a year against 3.45% in September.
• Tuesday 10 November: South Africa releases third-quarter unemployment, forecast at 32.5% against 33.6%, and Brazil’s central bank publishes the Copom minutes.
• Thursday 12 November: Argentina publishes October inflation at 4:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time (2:00 p.m. ET), and economists expect 1.8% against 1.9% in September. It is the next market we track to resolve.
• Wednesday 18 November: South Africa publishes October inflation, per economic calendars, with 4.8% expected against 4.5%.
• Wednesday 2 December: Brazil is reported to publish third-quarter growth on this date, which we have not confirmed on the IBGE calendar.
• Wednesday 9 December: Brazil’s central bank decides on the Selic again.
• Saturday 16 January 2027: Nigeria’s presidential election.

What It Means for US Readers

A longer pause in Brazil keeps the Selic at 13.75%, which can support the real but costs borrowers, and Mexico’s cut shows its central bank willing to move against the crowd. Holders of Brazilian and Mexican bonds, currencies and US-listed shares should watch the 12 November Argentine inflation figure and Brazil’s December vote together.

The Venezuela and Cuba markets are tied to US policy and US courts, which makes them volatile. A single large trade can move them.

What Is Not Known

We have not read the full text of Banxico’s decision or of the Copom statement on the central banks’ own pages, so the rate levels rest on economic calendars and our own checks. Polymarket’s Venezuela “leader” market settles on the formal head of state on 31 December, yet it gives Maduro 93.8% while the “de facto leader” market names Rodríguez.

Maduro is in US custody, so we do not read that price as a forecast. For Argentina, Mali, Colombia and Cuba we found no single trigger, and we do not invent one.

Thin markets can be moved by a few traders.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are prediction markets saying about Brazil’s interest rate?

Polymarket gives 88.5% to no change on 9 December and 5.7% to a quarter-point cut. A week earlier the pause stood at 68.5%.

Did prediction markets predict Mexico’s rate cut?

Not mostly. Polymarket gave no change about 82% on the morning of 5 November, yet Banxico cut by a quarter point to 6.25%.

Which Latin America and Africa market has the most money behind it?

Polymarket’s market on Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026, with US$99.9 million traded in total. Its odd rules mean the 93.8% for Nicolás Maduro is not a forecast.

Who do bettors favour in Venezuela’s next election?

Polymarket gives opposition leader María Corina Machado 68.5%, up from 52.5%, and Delcy Rodríguez 17.5%. No election date has been set.

Are prediction market prices reliable?

They are bets, not polls, and a 20% outcome happens one time in five. Thin markets can be moved by a few traders, so we label them and show them next to official data.

More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error