Argentina’s inflation has stopped falling just as the country enters the year before a presidential election. Official figures show prices rose 1.9% in September 2026, up from 1.7% in August, while the yearly rate barely moved at 33.4%.
For US readers, the number matters because it shapes how much Argentine bonds and US-listed Argentine stocks are worth, and how long President Javier Milei’s cost-cutting plan can keep public support. The vote itself is due in October 2027.
- September prices rose 1.9% in a month, against 1.7% in August; the yearly rate was 33.4%.
- Economists in the central bank’s expectations survey (REM) expect 1.8% for October, with the official figure due on Thursday 12 November.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a US prediction platform, gives Milei a 44.5% chance and Axel Kicillof, the Buenos Aires province governor, 33.5% to win the 2027 presidency (8 November 2026, 7:39 p.m. ET).
- Power Index: Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 60.2 points (November 2026 edition).
- As of 9 November 2026, 00:33 GMT
In plain English: INDEC is Argentina’s national statistics office, and it publishes the official consumer price index each month. The REM is a monthly survey in which the central bank (BCRA) asks economists what they expect for prices, growth and the peso.
Why the Slowdown Has Stalled
INDEC said on Tuesday 13 October 2026 that prices rose 1.9% in September, and that they are up 23.6% since January. Over the past twelve months the rise was 33.4%, a hair below August’s 33.5%.
Services rose faster than goods for the fifth month in a row. Regulated prices, such as gas, electricity and prepaid health plans, rose 2.3%.
Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile items such as fresh produce and regulated prices, was 1.7%. That suggests the underlying trend is calmer than the headline, though not by a wide margin.
A simple calculation shows why the yearly figure is so stubborn. At 1.9% a month prices would climb about 25% in a year, and at 1.8% about 24%, so our earlier August report shows how far the pace has already fallen.
What Economists Expect Next
The central bank published its latest REM survey on Thursday 5 November 2026, with 45 participants who answered between 28 and 30 October. They expect prices to rise 1.8% in October, a touch lower than September.
The same survey sees the peso at about 1,590 per US$1 in December, which is 9.8% above the December 2025 level. The peso is the central piece, because a weaker currency makes imported goods dearer and feeds into prices.
The survey now expects 0.7% growth for 2026, cut from 1.5%. We could not verify any forecast for 2027 inflation at the source, so we do not print one.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a US-based platform where users trade on real-world events, traders give Milei 44.5% to win the 2027 presidency, ahead of Axel Kicillof, the Buenos Aires province governor, at 33.5% and former economy minister Sergio Massa at 15.6%. Our explainer on Kicillof versus Milei sets out the contest.
About US$1.42 million has been traded in that market (read 8 November 2026, 7:39 p.m. ET). These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move with each inflation release.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to Watch This Month
INDEC is due to publish October prices on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 16:00 Buenos Aires time (19:00 GMT), according to our economic calendar. A reading well above the survey’s 1.8% would reinforce the idea that disinflation has stalled.
What It Means for You
Investors in Argentine bonds and US-listed Argentine companies should watch the monthly figure and the peso together. A sticky 1.9% pace with a steady currency would be read as manageable, while a faster peso fall would raise the risk.
Travellers to Buenos Aires still face prices that move quickly, so compare costs in pesos with the current exchange rate. For the currency backdrop, read our report on the steady peso.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether October inflation will come in at the survey’s 1.8% or above it. We also have no confirmed independent forecast for 2027 prices.
It is also unclear how a faster peso slide would change the path before the vote. We have not confirmed the exact election day in October 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Argentina’s inflation in September 2026?
Prices rose 1.9% in the month, up from 1.7% in August. The yearly rate was 33.4%, against 33.5% in August.
When is the next inflation figure?
INDEC is due to publish October prices on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 16:00 Buenos Aires time. Economists in the central bank’s expectations survey (REM) expect 1.8%.
Why does inflation matter for the 2027 election?
Prices shape household budgets and trust in the government’s economic plan. A stalled slowdown could weaken support before the October 2027 vote.
Sources: INDEC consumer price index for September 2026, released 13 October 2026 (indec.gob.ar); BCRA Market Expectations Survey (REM) of October 2026, published 5 November 2026 (bcra.gob.ar); Polymarket market “Argentina Presidential Election Winner” (polymarket.com). Related Rio Times reports: August inflation, Kicillof versus Milei and the steady peso.
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. How we use AI · Report an error