Hurricane Polo: Landfall Monday in Baja California Sur
Mexico · Weather
Latest — September 27, 2026
— Hurricane Polo has weakened to a Category 3 storm (120 mph winds, 949 mb), but its threat to Mexico has sharpened: a hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, with a hurricane watch on the east coast (Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo) and a tropical storm warning from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos.
— The US National Hurricane Center expects hurricane conditions on Monday afternoon, a crossing of the peninsula Monday night, and an approach to the northwestern mainland early Tuesday. Rainfall of 4–8 inches (100–200 mm), locally up to 10 inches (250 mm), threatens life-threatening flooding and mudslides.
— Sinaloa has readied 136 temporary shelters with capacity for more than 53,000 people, and power utility CFE has launched a preventive operation across Sonora, Sinaloa and Baja California Sur.
Key Facts
- The storm — Hurricane Polo is the fifth Category 5 storm worldwide in 2026 and has reached that top rating three times in five days. It is currently a Category 3 and is forecast to remain a hurricane when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
- Who is affected — Baja California Sur, home to the Los Cabos, La Paz and Todos Santos expat and tourist communities, is under hurricane alerts. The northwestern mainland states of Sonora and Sinaloa are preparing for Polo’s arrival early Tuesday.
- Why it matters for expats — The US Embassy in Mexico issued a weather alert on September 25 advising US citizens in the region to monitor forecasts and follow local authorities. Flights, ferries and road links across the peninsula face disruption from Monday.
Hurricane Polo is done wandering. After nearly a week of stalling, looping and re-intensifying off Mexico’s Pacific coast, the storm turned toward the Baja California peninsula this weekend and is now on a track that takes its core across Baja California Sur on Monday, September 28.
Overnight measurements by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft put Polo’s sustained winds at 120 mph (195 km/h) with a central pressure of 949 mb, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. That is down from the Category 5 peak it reached three separate times over the past five days — but the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) stresses that Polo is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it begins its approach to the peninsula on Monday. Private forecaster AccuWeather projects further weakening, to around Category 2 strength at landfall.
Warnings now in force
Mexico’s meteorological service and the NHC have issued the following alerts: a hurricane warning for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe; a hurricane watch for the east coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo; and a tropical storm warning from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos. Additional watches for the Sonora coast are expected as the track firms up.
On the current forecast track, hurricane conditions reach the Baja California Sur coast on Monday afternoon. Polo then crosses the peninsula Monday night and nears the northwestern mainland — the stretch between Ciudad Obregon, Guaymas and Hermosillo in Sonora — early Tuesday, September 29.
Rain, surge and surf
The NHC forecasts rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches (100–200 mm) across portions of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximums of 10 inches (250 mm). In a desert peninsula with steep terrain, that volume can produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. A storm surge is possible near and to the east of where the center makes landfall, and large, dangerous swells with rip currents will affect the coast for several days.
How Mexico is preparing
The mainland is moving early. Sinaloa has readied 136 temporary shelters with capacity for more than 53,000 people, according to state officials. The federal power utility CFE has launched a preventive operation across Sonora, Sinaloa and Baja California Sur, pre-positioning crews and equipment for outages. Ports and schools along the southwestern coast were already shut earlier in the week as Polo passed offshore.
What expats and travelers should know
Los Cabos (Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo), La Paz and Todos Santos host large American and Canadian communities. Los Cabos sits just south of the current hurricane-warning zone, where tropical-storm conditions are possible; La Paz is covered by the east-coast hurricane watch. The US Embassy in Mexico issued a weather alert on September 25 urging US citizens in the affected states to monitor local media and official sources and to follow the instructions of civil protection authorities.
Practical steps consistent with official guidance: follow Mexico’s Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) and state civil protection channels; avoid beaches and coastal roads; secure outdoor items; keep phones charged and documents together; and confirm flight status directly with airlines before heading to Los Cabos (SJD) or La Paz (LAP) airports on Monday or Tuesday. NHC advisories for Polo are issued in Mountain Standard Time, the local time in Baja California Sur — one hour behind Mexico City.
What We Could Not Confirm
- The exact landfall point and Polo’s intensity at landfall — forecasts range from a Category 2 to a major hurricane at approach.
- Whether Los Cabos (SJD) and La Paz (LAP) airports will suspend operations on Monday; no closure had been announced at publication time.
- Whether hotels in the warning zone will move guests to shelters or interior floors; no general evacuation order for tourists had been announced.
FAQ
When will Hurricane Polo make landfall in Mexico?
The NHC expects Polo to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, September 28, with hurricane conditions by Monday afternoon. It crosses the peninsula Monday night and nears the northwestern mainland — Sonora — early Tuesday, September 29.
Is Los Cabos under a hurricane warning?
No. The hurricane warning covers the west coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, north of Los Cabos. Los Cabos can still expect tropical-storm conditions, heavy rain and dangerous surf. La Paz is inside the east-coast hurricane watch (Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo).
How strong will Polo be at landfall?
Polo is a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph (195 km/h) winds and is gradually weakening. The NHC expects it to remain a dangerous hurricane at approach on Monday; AccuWeather projects about Category 2 strength at landfall.
How much rain is coming?
The NHC forecasts 4 to 8 inches (100–200 mm) across portions of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximums of 10 inches (250 mm), plus a risk of life-threatening flash flooding, mudslides and storm surge.
What time zone do the advisories use?
NHC advisories for Polo are issued in Mountain Standard Time, the local time in Baja California Sur, including Los Cabos and La Paz. That is one hour behind Mexico City.
Sources: US National Hurricane Center, public advisories on Hurricane Polo, NHC forecast discussion, NHC advisory archive for Polo, Meganoticias on Sinaloa’s shelters, Severe Weather Europe on Polo’s Category 5 cycles, The Straits Times citing AccuWeather.
Related: Category 5 Hurricane Polo Stalls off Mexico as Ports and Schools Shut.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times